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Expected Minimum Entitlement Ratio for Small Shareholders (below Rs 2 lakhs):

Dhampur Sugar Jan 2024: 2.25 %
Kaveri Seeds Jan 2024: 30.04 %
Chambal Fertilisers Jan 2024: 11.22 %
Bajaj Auto Jan 2024 : 15 %

How you arrived at entitlement ratio? Can u briefly say....

THERE IS NO FORMULA TO CHECK ER AND AR BEFORE RD.

SIS 2023 Buyback:

Expected ER was 10%
Actual ER published : 13.17 to 13.40

Expected AR in 2023 would be much better than that of 2021 (may be 40 to 45%)

SIS 2021 Buyback:
Actual AR was 22.25

In absence of data like ‘Total number of Retail bids’ , total number of Retail shares tendered’, it is impossible to forecast Possible AR based on calculations.
Yes, anyone can put forward guess work about prospective AR based on recent past experiences of same or other company etc.

However, I have tried to forecast Prospective AR of SIS based on multiple mathematical ratios, past SIS buyback data and few assumptions.

To keep it simple, one has to track Only total number of bids at NSE (BSE is not participating). In 2021 SIS buy back, total number of bids were 16,996 (including all categories)

FORECAST IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE FOR ME, AS WELL. (May be I am missing something in entire calculation and analysis, but have been not able to find out).

Let’s see if it proves to be right?

Total Bids       Retail Oversubscription      Min AR
11,500        1.41       96%
12,000        1.47       79%
12,500        1.53       66%
13,000        1.59       55%
13,500        1.65       47%
14,000        1.71       40%
14,500        1.77       34%
15,000        1.83       29%

Total number of Bids at NSE as on 11.00 am (second last day of offer) is 7,060

I found my mistake in above calculation. I had mixed up data of 2021 & 2022 buy back, hence above calculation is null and void.

After omiting mistakes done in previous calculation, AR still looks good to me for 2023.

Total number of bids (including all categories) on last day for 2023 buy back: 11,918

AR in 2021: 22.25 for small share holders
AR in 2022: 41.67
Forecasted AR for 2023: Minimum 55 %

My Forecasted AR after Calculations : Minimum 55%

Reality: 153 out of 410 : 37.31 %

I am disappointed.

Will have to find out better method of forecasting AR for future buy backs

Probabilities of AR for TCS Buy back 2023

(1) If same % of retail investors, who did not participated in March 2022, prefer to remain non-particpant this time (2023) also, then expected AR would be above 35.35

(2) Individual Category shares tendered in March 2022: 6,22,21,854 ( 2,53,42,996 shares were considered as Retail shares)
Dec 2023: Shares tendered : 4,13,33,119 (Retail shares will be known only after official release from TCS post buy back)

Thus participation in individual category is reduced by 2,08,88,735 shares in Dec 23 as compared to March 22.

Based on this difference in Individual Category and subsequently Retail participation, I expect Minimum AR to be 41.28

(3)In 2023, number of bidders decreased by 1,29,429 & among them 1,17,951 bidders might be from retail share category and remaining from general category.
(4)
No separate calculation is done based on number of bidders.

Conclusion:

Minimum AR to be between 35.35 to 41.28

If we take other factors into account, then AR of 60 also is possible.

@Jeevan: I think this is how the calculation works:
For 54 shares entitlement was 9 shares and total 19 shares got taken. So for the additional 45 shares tendered (in addition to the 9 entitled shares) the ratio is 10/45. So in your scenario it should approximately be 5 + 15*(10/45) = ~8 shares.
Hope it helps.

@Karan thanks. Is there any possibility in your case 54*0.35 ==> 18.9 so 19 accepted. As 10/45 comes 22.22% only but acceptance is 35%

(1)
2022 TCS Buy back : Individual Category bidded for 6.21 crore shares against 60 lakh shares

2023 TCS Buy back: 2 more days left & Individual Category has bidded for 1.91 crore shares against 60 lakh shares

(2) Many of these Individual are actually from General Category (having shares worth more than Rs 2 lakhs)

I feel that AR would be much better as compared to that of 2022 buy back