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Are we headig towards lower AR???

How can one belive the words of so called experts - - 18 to 24 out of 44 shares will be accepted, rest will trade between 3300 to 3600. The so called experts had recommended to buy Paytm on 8 to 15% correction, look where it stands now.(paytm)
In BB, market price will surely determine AR. Market price in tender period - - >Nearer to 4500-> higher will be AR, Nearer to 4000 lower will be AR, that's as simple as that