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As to TCS buyback, I am going to furnish some useful historical data for consideration.
However, at he outset there is no second thought for participation in the buyback in view of the historical high acceptance ratio beating all arithmetical connotation.
Arithmetically it looks meagre but eventually proves to be very profitable.
2017 buyback:-
16000 cr, at 2850/- (21.8% premium) , buyback size 5.61 cr (2.85%), subs was about 2.5 times for nii and retail , AR for retailer was about 50%.
2018 buyback:-
16000cr, @2100 , buyback size 7.61cr (1.99%) subs was about 1.75 times and AR for retailer was 100%
2020 buyback :-
16000 cr @3000 , buyback size 5.33 cr (1.42%) subs was about 1.6 times and AR for retailer was 100 %
From this data it is clear that the retailers are not that much interested to participate in such buyback inspite of having 15% reservation. Historically it is also true that after buyback ,price has mostly gone up further .
There is a school of thought who preaches that a company launching buyback means it has no ability to do further extension with the amount and has thereby reached to a point of ultra maturity and saturation and therefore buying its own shares at higher price which is a much easier job and shares for such companies must be sold at buyback. But it is true that the buyback is stake appreciation. So theoretically there is not much difference between tendering and not tendering except for retailers probability for extra acceptance and tax efficiency.

2022 buy back:-
18000cr,@4500 ,size 4cr (1.08%) retailers quota 60 lakh
Promoter (Tata sons & TICL) having 267 CR, 72.19% as at June21
Total share 370 cr
Retailers number 10.8 lac , no of share 11.95 cr (3.24%) , Average 110 (not matching)
So arithmetically ER comes at 3.24 % and AR comes at 5.o2%
The following points may be noted:-
1. The % of share buy back and so also total numer reducing.
2. No of retailers increasing, one unconfirmed source says that the % of retailer in 2020 was 0.5% causing so high ER and AR . But for me such a low fi
gure is difficult to believe.
3.It tranpires that the promoter will participate as ever before and their portion will be 12993 cr out of total 18000 cr.
4. Current nii and retail portion is 4.9% as against 4.4% in June 21. So it is increasing and will further increase.
5. The final AR is a function of the difference between buyback price and the market price , the lower the better as much as the holders will try to offload at higer prices.
6. You have no means to know the final AR until the tendering process is completed.
Keeping all points in view, one may expect of AR at least 60% which will give good profit at the end.
Best of luck

Ou Ai,
Sir ji,
Appreciate such a nicely interpretation of the event with a balanced approach. 👏

Thanks

@Ou Ai

>>Gains exempted out of grandfathering though factually right, is not a big enough reason for less tendering,

Please point out in where did I say that the due to grandfathering there would be less tendering. I only said that grandfathering already protected capital gains till 31st Jan 2018 and hence we should not say that buyback 2022 is protecting last 15-20 years capital gains.

>> as gains after post Jan 2018 are phenomenal that is not exempt.
Again where did I say that the above is not correct.

>>Buy back is an opportunity made for mainly for long term shareholders instead of dividends that are taxable is the factual position.

If we are comparing the buyback vs dividend then I agree to the above but I have different opinion on the Blanket statement "Buyback is for the benefit of long term investors" and we can surely agree to disagree on this point. I believe that companies come out with buyback when they wish to show higher EPS in the future without utilizing the "cash in hand" in the growth of the company and its profitability or if when they are forced by very large stakeholders e.g. Government for higher share of company profits. I sincerely doubt that "Benefits to long term retail investors" is the reasons for companies to come out with buybacks. I believe that some long term retail investors get benefitted in the buybacks by default only. It is my personal view and may not align with many but that is absolutely fine.

>>Those buying less than 2 lakhs in order to avail small share holder's benefit are making best out of short term opportunity.

Here also I may politely agree to disagree with you and that is my personal view only. I believe that "good opportunity" or "not so good opportunity" or "bad opportunity" it all depends on the skill of the person to transact optimally during the buyback period e.g. one of the important aspect (along with so many other aspects) is entry (buying) price.....

>>Long term investors with investment over decade generally do not rush to >>sell post buy back as the holding cost is miniscule. They may add more at >>lower prices having sold in buy back. Short term investors may either sell or >>continue to hold.

I am not sure in what context you mentioned this but if it is the context to people switching to Infosys to TCS then I would again say it depends on the psychology of individual investors and also on the fact if investor is the "ACTIVE" or "PASSIVE" one. I have worked with both TCS & INFOSYS both and understand both companies very well. I have also been a long term investors in TCS and INFOSYS both and I, my family, friends and acquaintance who follow their investments "ACTIVELY" do re-balance our investment not every quarter and not after every buyback but whenever there is sustained (over a significant period of time) relative underperformance or overperformance.

I would like to thank you for all your views and appreciate you knowledge and expertise from the bottom of my heart.