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Probabilities of AR for TCS Buy back 2023

(1) If same % of retail investors, who did not participated in March 2022, prefer to remain non-particpant this time (2023) also, then expected AR would be above 35.35

(2) Individual Category shares tendered in March 2022: 6,22,21,854 ( 2,53,42,996 shares were considered as Retail shares)
Dec 2023: Shares tendered : 4,13,33,119 (Retail shares will be known only after official release from TCS post buy back)

Thus participation in individual category is reduced by 2,08,88,735 shares in Dec 23 as compared to March 22.

Based on this difference in Individual Category and subsequently Retail participation, I expect Minimum AR to be 41.28

(3)In 2023, number of bidders decreased by 1,29,429 & among them 1,17,951 bidders might be from retail share category and remaining from general category.
(4)
No separate calculation is done based on number of bidders.

Conclusion:

Minimum AR to be between 35.35 to 41.28

If we take other factors into account, then AR of 60 also is possible.

@Jeevan: I think this is how the calculation works:
For 54 shares entitlement was 9 shares and total 19 shares got taken. So for the additional 45 shares tendered (in addition to the 9 entitled shares) the ratio is 10/45. So in your scenario it should approximately be 5 + 15*(10/45) = ~8 shares.
Hope it helps.

@Karan thanks. Is there any possibility in your case 54*0.35 ==> 18.9 so 19 accepted. As 10/45 comes 22.22% only but acceptance is 35%