@JSK✨ Ji, you are right there are many unknowns about +ve and -ve. I do have some observations :
1. The 18K infusion is in exchange for equity and share count will go up. Book value per share can only go up since it is presently negative , but I don't see it as a reason to support a valuation above 14. In fact, issuing stock at 11 has diluted all shareholders who had bought shares at higher prices earlier and one of the factors I am apprehensive about is another dilution in the future which will limit upside .
2. The MSCI index rebalancing for May is already done and IDEA will not be included in that. The earliest it can happen is in August and it will depend on how Idea's market cap at that time is compared to other candidates for inclusion/exclusion. In my opinion , it is too far off, uncertain and speculative to be a factor in deciding for many days to hold the FPO shares.
3. Government support has been a positive and should continue to be do so, but government ownership comes at a cost too. There can be pressure to fulfill social commitments. Government owns 100% or BSNL and if the two are merged , I am not confident that the interests of Idea's minority shareholders will be protected.
4. Idea will be a third player but profitability ( after paying interest on its huge debt) is far far off in the future until it can match the Big Two in scale . What should valuation of a company that is not expected to be profitable for years and is dependent on government support for survival be ? I don't know. If everything goes to plan and Idea can execute perfectly, it can be worth a lot more, but I see too many risks . It is currently priced richer on a Enterprise Value/ EBITDA multiple than Bharti Airtel. For me, it is difficult to accept that is justified, though in the short term the market can overshoot based on sentiment .
Anyway, congratulations to all those who have booked profits and all the best to those who are still holding on.