Vodafone Idea Limited FPO Message Board (Page 2)

Kya 6th May ke pehele 14 touch karegi? Nikalna hai cause there are ipos queuing up from next week

Ye apka patience level check karege

Increase Delivery % can also be on the sell side no ? Correct me if I am wrong here

​@SMMM 
No it cannot be on sell side.
Delivery % reflects the number of shares brought with an intention to hold. Now one can hold for few days or months or even years.

But if someone has sold shares from their demat account, it will also reflect in the delivery % of the traded volume na ?

​@SMMM Delivery percentage is reflection of buying and holding of sold shares other than intraday where in it becomes sum zero . The selling volume has shown degrowth over the days.
It will be interesting to see how it hold on to next support level and bounce back with high RSI.
It's all calculated risk we are taking with the hope that selling will lessen and accumulation will start .

From where can we see delivery percentage of previous days?

​@Piyuush The percentages haven't been entirely on an upward trajectory if we keep aside yesterday's grey settlement

@Learning IPO Market 
Here you can check: https://www.nseindia.com/report-detail/eq_security

​@MuStrFc Yes it's not entirely on upward trajectory but it's is in better position if we compare it before the Fpo.
It's like the turnaround story is working somehow Not fully like people are not 100% confident otherwise it would've crossed 15 till now but if we look at the charts and other data the stock is trying to hold well.
It will be roller coaster ride before it Touch 15.
What i want to say is even if would've kept the money in bank FD risk free it would've given 7% return max for a year assuming the income is below 5 lacs total
So even if stock fall to 12.70 the fpo holders will still earn more than FD.
So for me my SL is 12.70 and that's why I'm still holding my lot for the target price of 15.

​Even iam holding some quantity with similar rationale and its good to have that sort of strategy which balances both aspects. The FPO's success was crucial for how the company can fare going ahead. Some part of it is done, which is visible in delivery % showing confidence building up, other parts may take some time or some external catalysts to happen. @Piyuush

​@Piyush so even we agree with you then upto what level one can hold? Please guide me bacause i am also risk taker with aprrox 50000 qty

​@MuStrFc @Piyuush  The logic and rationale given are in line with what I am also thinking . This is what we do in most of the cases and calculate risk to reward.

I look at support levels and compare the data for the past month or so besides other indicators and come to final conclusion.
The problem comes when members start asking for time period and want to be sure that it will move unidirectional.

Market is DYNAMIC and would behave like that only.

​@Analyser  See your risk appetite may be completely different in comparison to me. I don't know what % of your portfolio consist of VI share so i may not be appropriate person to give you the ans.
But what i did is i offloaded some part of this share on listing day at 13.50 and rest I'm holding for target above 15/16+ it all depends upon the market if I'm thinking i can get my hands on to some other share i may offload all the shares at 15 or 16 or i may not.One thing make sure that whenever you sell the share make sure you took that decision by yourself and be happy with the gains you got.

Gya yeh toh Bhai ab ...28 cr buyers 38-40 cr sellers ..price 13.4.... 7% down from days high

​@Mr. Agrawal Wasn't asked of me, but still to tell, 30% sold of ~ 129K allotted, rest holding

​@Mr. Agrawal - itna panic mat karo.
If you are taking the risk of holding for a higher target then there is definite risk of lower SL being hit.
Straight line me to stock upar nahi jaa saktna na
Volatility rahegi isme.
You can think of booking partial profit, so that daily price movements may bother you less.

​@MuStrFc Everyone is welcome to reply.. sare seniors ko tag nhi kr sakte isliye jo last few msgs mai active dikhte hai unhe hi tag kr deta hu...

​@GrayIsTheNewBlackBhai dono questions ka jawab nhi diye.. Are you holding Full quantity..? And SL ?

​@Mr. Agrawal - I have booked 10% (~32k shares) today at 14.05
Remaining 90% still holding.
I'll exit if the trend reverses, 3-continious days of red candle or 11.8 level is breached.
With this approach worst case - I may have to give up almost 60% of the current profit.

Based on your risk profile you can create a strategy.
All the best !!!!

Ok thanks bro.. Will set a SL around 12 and wait ...!

I was holding all stocks and this was the views from multiple friends till yesterday which was natural though:

14.70 is the resistance so was waiting to reach to sell all except profit shares. However, today the pattern was reverse since FPO listing so i have sold 30% in the average price today and holding rest. I will again see tomorrow and sell some shares to distribute the risk like today.

As per my opinion, today is profit selling and panic day due to 11 price FPO holders. Nothing serious otherwise we would have seen 10% minus.

Don't panic
Many gray punters had already booked applications on the condition of selling it on 29/04 ,
They have already disclosed to sell today
So it was just profit booking, nothing else

They earned heavily as compared to listing (11.80)

​@harit And why did they all agree to sell it on 29/4? Any specific reasons for that or is it due to upcoming event

​@ROAR 
Last weekend when GMP down to 60-90pc.
And panic among punters ,there were offered to buy/sell applications with conditions of square off on certain date(29) bcos all knew that listing gains will be under 1 rs. On listing day
All MSGs circulated on sat,sun
Those who sold their applications with conditions had to sell today

​@MR AGARWAL  The views expressed by fellow members tell the reality of expected move which was envisaged earlier . My take is on Technical chart . As it is not breaching 13.45-50 for the last two days it has become strong support , closing below this may have another view. As is evident there is strong resistance at 14.7 once this is broken out then the sky open for > 15.
I will wait for further strengthening of this support and then upward movement.

​@JSK✨ Ok will watch tomorrow for a bounce back otherwise will start booking in parts

​@Rakcyt It broke 13.5 today I wasnt expecting it ..and market depth was also heavy on sell side even 14-15 cr block deals were easily absorbed by sellers without any upmove so I felt someone biggie is selling.. let's see

The basic problem is that long term prospects are uncertain with lots of downside risk and valuation looks expensive. It has been supported by speculation and momentum but those can turn quickly.

​@Rakcyt Today it touched 13.30 . I am still holding ~65% but may sell some portion if it falls below 13. What do you suggest? To hold for sometime or exit completely if it falls below 12 or 11.80?

​@Noobtrader  For me tech charts is sacrosanct and it infuse confidence into me. To HOLD it.
This is my personal views , you can do partial booking as risk taking capabilities may be different from an individual to individual . Also depends how much shares got allotted.
My stand is intact as was on day one .

.

.

This is nothing to be concerned about - for some reason Vodafone gets such notices every few weeks, usually for insignificant amounts from few lakhs to a couple of crores, and they always contest it

MAIL TO REGISTRAR,i am also facing same problem

Yes Broo..
As decided, Will see you there at sharp 6:30 pm 🤗

Me there with Prasoon

Hope you guys are having fun out there😊😊👍👍

​@Vimal Garodia We had really relaxed, light hearted and refreshing meeting over a glass of ........juice . Great insight with wonderful discussions. Would Keep on meeting every fortnight.

This is precursor to our big meet planned for all . Get ready !!😊😊

​@Rakcyt Aah, nice to hear that, keep the JUICE flowing..😜😜

Aaplog Delhi se ho to Mai bhi milna chahunga bhailog

Bahar se ho to kabhi Delhi aana ho jarur miliyega

​@Aaashish  Fortunately we are from City Beautiful and not Delhi 😄😄 ( pls take it lightly as I studied and stayed in Delhi in life time and know the air quality )

But you are most welcome to join us in CHD.

We extend the invitation to all in and around Tricity to come and join . All can express the intention of joining here please.

Is there any reason they should be matched if done on the exchange ? If there is one seller of 144 crore shares and 144 crore buyers of 1 share each, only a bulk seller would show up.

Absolutely mockery by NSE

A spot sell shouldn't be able to absorb 144 cr shares in one instant. The entire transaction happened within a minute (as per volume charts), plus Citigroup was one participant, so looks like this was a pre-planned transaction. Also the entire ATC stake was sold at 12.7, which is the lowest price of the day, so clearly there wasn't any averaging of price to absorb sellers at different prices.

​@rohiitian FWIK, NSE only posts the transactions by a buyer/seller if the transaction size is > 0.5% of equity shares.
It is evident that multiple buyers have absorbed 144 Cr sell order from ATC, among which only Citi Group bought > 0.5% stake, rest other buyers must have bought < 0.5% stake which is the reason their names are not published .

​@rohiitian I don't think that is correct . ATC's average was 12.78 and Citi's 12.7 . So , most of the ATC sale was absorbed by non-block buyers at higher prices than the low print. It is also probably illegal to pre-arrange a transaction like this and execute it on the exchange.

​@rohiitian Thank you, I am following your messages from some days now and applied FF in VI and JKN with help of these messages 👍

​@GrayIsTheNewBlack Makes sense. Which means there could have been 2-3 other bulk buyers who were <0.5%

​@colcol You're right, ATC sold at 12.78. But such transactions are not illegal, have seen several like this in SME (most recently where Hem sold shares to Sunil Singhania in Aspire). Still find it hard to believe open market absorbed so many shares in one go. At any time during the day, there were total active buy orders of 25-35 cr shares only. More likely that there were other bulk buyers (<0.5%), and a smaller set was traded in retail.

I did a math exercise assuming if there were 1cr buying shares on each 5 paisa difference from 13.70 to 12.75 and remaining 124cr shares at 12.70 then sales price average will come to 12.77 so I believe case was something like that... May be there were many bulk buyers at 12.70 with <.50%

​@rohiitian Regardless of NSE data, volumes would have reflected if a like to like match was established. Also the people buying bulk are aware of name revelation so its possible some play safe as a precautionary measure and buy less than threshold.

​@colcol Its illegal when not reported as per BLOCK / BULK requirements. The talks happen off-market to process these, although they appear to happen just out of the blue.

​@rohiitian ji, The transactions are not illegal , but pre-arranging them before-hand and then painting the tape on the exchange is market manipulation . In SMEs, there are unlikely to be as many participants on a typical day as in Idea on a day like today , so a single buyer is much more likely to be matched against a single seller.

Seniors, any view on this please

I think for short term its movement is done. Results would also not move it since this capex will take time to kick in. If your view is less than 3 months better to exit. Institutions are in for long game.

These are my thoughts:

1. Short term 14 target looks good.

2. MSCI index inclusion may cross 14 which event next month but are we sure for its addition?

3. Long term or after election if favors in current BJP government than 18 for sure.

Any other views?

I guess I have somewhat of a contrary view.

I applied FF in Idea FPO and was able to get out completely at 14 on NSE yesterday . I normally like to hold stocks for the long term, and had the capacity to keep all the allotted shares, but this case was an exception. I went FF only because I saw a short-term opportunity, but this stock does meet my criteria for being a long-term hold.

Last year I had looked at buying this stock when it was in single digits but ultimately decided to instead buy Indus Networks which was beaten down because of huge dues from VI and was, in my opinion , a better quality play on VI surviving than buying IDEA itself.

At the current price, the risk reward trade-off does not look any better. There are certainly positive factors and favourable momentum, but, in my opinion , there is too much positivity priced into the stock. They have some funds to compete now, but Bharti and Jio are much better funded and are not going to just sit back and allow VI to take back market share, especially in the profitable segments, without a fight. VI will have to raise a lot more external capital to compete until it has the internal accruals to invest organically. More dilution at lower than current price is a possibility. Then the big elephant in the room is the government ownership. They bailed out VI in the past , but how and when will they extract their pound of flesh ( nothing wrong with that , they have to do what is best for the "national interest ") ? One possibility is a merger with BSNL/MTNL on terms that are not favourable to VI minority shareholders.

I can certainly see the possibility of the stock shooting up to 15 , 16 , 17 or 18 , based on further hype or positive developments, but there is also downside risk. I would prefer to risk missing out on further gains rather than keep a position that I am not comfortable with and see it lose money.

Keep in mind that I am someone who generally prefers to stay away from companies where the government is involved as an owner unless they offer exposure to a unique business like Hindustan Aeronautics or Cochin Shipyards or the valuation gets really compelling like when LIC got to around 550. So, I am biased here. As to what you should do, it depends on so many factors that are unique to your situation and I can't offer you any advice. There are reasonable arguments to both keep the stock as well as to take the profits and exit. You should consider which are more convincing and also what your motivation for applying in the first place was.

Great views but you executed order for the same price which i'm talking about for short term. Long term 18 for all or profit share is definitely matches with the price movement after inflow of 18K cr as 3rd telecom player.

I don't see too much positivity where someone talking about double like 22 which looks small number too. If it would have too much positivity then we would have seen 15 price here.

Do you guys see 13 price in longer run/MSCI/Government support as well?

Do we see any use of 18K cr to increase price?

Do we see anchor/MF fund interest to increase share price in future?

So many unknown questions regarding +ve and -ve but anyhow, only time will say. I may be wrong or right.

​@colcol ​ @JSK✨  Thanks for sharing these thoughts. Appreciations 👏

See Vodafone now!

​
@JSK✨ Ji, you are right there are many unknowns about +ve and -ve. I do have some observations :

1. The 18K infusion is in exchange for equity and share count will go up. Book value per share can only go up since it is presently negative , but I don't see it as a reason to support a valuation above 14. In fact, issuing stock at 11 has diluted all shareholders who had bought shares at higher prices earlier and one of the factors I am apprehensive about is another dilution in the future which will limit upside .

2. The MSCI index rebalancing for May is already done and IDEA will not be included in that. The earliest it can happen is in August and it will depend on how Idea's market cap at that time is compared to other candidates for inclusion/exclusion. In my opinion , it is too far off, uncertain and speculative to be a factor in deciding for many days to hold the FPO shares.

3. Government support has been a positive and should continue to be do so, but government ownership comes at a cost too. There can be pressure to fulfill social commitments. Government owns 100% or BSNL and if the two are merged , I am not confident that the interests of Idea's minority shareholders will be protected.

4. Idea will be a third player but profitability ( after paying interest on its huge debt) is far far off in the future until it can match the Big Two in scale . What should valuation of a company that is not expected to be profitable for years and is dependent on government support for survival be ? I don't know. If everything goes to plan and Idea can execute perfectly, it can be worth a lot more, but I see too many risks . It is currently priced richer on a Enterprise Value/ EBITDA multiple than Bharti Airtel. For me, it is difficult to accept that is justified, though in the short term the market can overshoot based on sentiment .

Anyway, congratulations to all those who have booked profits and all the best to those who are still holding on.

I agree with you for all the points. Actually in stock market, sentiment, momentum and break out plays major role till financial results go out. And for Vodafone, everyone knows company is in trouble and at that time also stock price was roaming between 11 to 17. It had 200 cr volume for exchanged stocks today as well so something is cooking up considering institution buyers.

We discussed valuation for lot of companies even during IPO but after listing, if +ve momentum comes for any company OR operators stays with investor then that hardly matters till company posts the result :)

Thank you very much for your valuable views.
I am thinking of keeping it for next week atleast. Given the volume in the last 2 days, I am assuming a lot of retail investors have existed and fact that despite weak broader market it closed in green, there is high likelihood of 5%/10% upside from here.

I appreciate with JSK and colcol in terms of financial analysis for this stock.but can we compare vi with Zomato story either?

​ @Analyser Zomato was one of my best buys last year as I had loaded up in the 60s, 50s and 40s and recently exited. So, I have some understanding of the stock. It couldn't be more different than VI. Zomato is the market leader. VI is a poor 3rd in its industry. Zomato was burning cash but had raised a lot of cash in the IPO and was cash rich with zero debt. VI has over 2 lakhs crores in debt plus other obligations. Zomato was able to use its war chest to acquire Blinkit at a very cheap valuation in a time of stress. VI is struggling to pay bills . Telecom services are highly regulated by the TRAI whereas food and grocery delivery is basically unregulated. Telecom services also have a fairly high degree of penetration now whereas Zomato / Swiggy still have scope for a lot of growth . After having spent a lot of money capturing customers , they are now making changes to make the business profitable. Some of the recent changes have made shareholders happy at the expense of customers , but they don't really have much of a choice as Swiggy is not much better and there is no other competition .
I thought hard before selling my Zomato shares , but I was sitting on too much profit to not take it out. The big risk I see is that a well - funded player like Reliance, Tatas, Amazon, etc could enter the segment and start a price war that Zomato cannot win. I have been a loyal customer but their customer service has deteriorated in the last few months and I would definitely give new competitors a chance .

​@colcol  Happy that you are second person whom I would like more than anyone as member of Fan Club of Zomato.
I sold my IPO holding @76 (applied despite Big No No from all around for new age ) , after I took contra call and sold between 140-160 range . Started buying again from 100 down upto 45, and then up to160 and after various swing trades , still holding 6000 for final partial assault @ 225 only. The reason , nothing but Blankit which has double the value than Zomato itself , so Target of 400 is not ruled out by 2034 end .

Now coming to your theory of biggies coming into game it will require GUTS to make strong GOV as it took more than 10 years for Zomato to do so .
Second recent upgrades in Swiggy, that too 3 times, which is venturing into public issue to unlock the value . Imagine the scenario as the valuation goes up for Swiggy , it indirectly influence the price on Zomato.

This is my stand on Zomato, though all have right to disagree .

Pls read 2024 end instead of 2034 .......my bad

Definitely not a quality stock as like Infosys or ITC.. that is why Vi in lower double digit. I mean no risk no rusk.... FPO success and marquee investor like GQC entry indicates .. Gov support and possibility of some one entering this world number one data consuming market. I dont see merger with BSNL as I feel they keep it as a DD tv. AGR, UK business treaty, OTCG all are in pipeline to be unveiled in no matter of time. 5G is not blockbuster so far... tariff hike.. the technology that voda plc has... all is been weighed ... no risk no rusk

​@Rakcyt  Let's see. Price movement is mostly expected to be on up side looking at momentum, but anything can happen in such short duration. Wish you Good Luck for reaping rewards as per your targets👍

​@Chhote Lal Remember the famous song by Shakira " Hips don't lie" it truly fits here aptly . If all the technical indicators are in favour , whatever emotions one may have , it will move the way it's destined , and it's apparently visibly written on the wall over the city .

Wait for surprises next week !! My stand was , is and will be firm

'Ek saal mein 25 rupaiye ka target...' Ace investor Sanjiv Bhasin's FOUR stocks; one penny stock:

https://www.etnownews.com/markets/ek-saal-mein-25-rupaiye-ka-target-ace-investor-sanjiv-bhasins-four-stocks-one-penny-stock-article-109652347