Risk to Reward ratio is not in favour of investors. investors at base level may loose Rs. 2000-3000 on listing day itself. Remember the Golden Rule "NO LOSS IS ALSO A PROFIT". So control your emotions for a day and save a dent in your capital.
Avoid. It is over priced by 50%. If we all boycott this one, it will be lession for next upcoming IPO' s while quoting valuations. Moreover their expectations also will be at par with their financials.
Retail people now on right path. But still inching up. Let's hope QIB don't allow to sail through this IPO anymore. Hope for not a bad listing tomorrow.
Real Value for this company is not even 400 for a 1 rupee face value share. How many peoples buy ethnic wear, they would have many piling stocks. Many wear Rented cloths who cannot even buy for special events or feel it would be difficult to find space in their cupboards. They are just trying to recover their major advertising cost. they have spent heavily on it.
Clear Avoid as this is very expensively priced. Only makes sense to enter at 600 levels.
109. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
February 5, 2022 2:11:16 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
Let's unanimously avoid this IPO. IPO will sail through because of QIB but company should come to know that you can't take investors for granted. After analysing Profit & Loss statement I am surely not going to even buy clothes from Manyavar. Such high margin they charge for their products. This margin is not sustainable in long term and they will face massive competition from other players because this ethnic space hasn't been explored by others till now but Tata, Birla and Reliance will definitely look into it. Clear Avoid for this IPO and their products too.
109.1. ipobull| Link| Bookmark|
February 6, 2022 11:15:31 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 1000+ Likes)
Promotes will never care whether retail participates or not.
109.2. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
February 7, 2022 12:20:45 AM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
Retailers will also not care whether such nonsense IPO came or not 😂😂 Let QIB book loss:)
Some of us believe that it is not a big thing even if broader equity market corrects more than 15%.
Senior investors may have skills, experience and liquidity to sail through these falls but newer investors should keep in mind that if broader market corrects for more than 15% then there will be many many stocks which will correct 30-50%. First casualties will be where market believes valuations of the companies are excessive. Newer investors should have their own risk mitigation strategies for these situations and should develop their own plan B.
108.1. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
February 7, 2022 6:01:27 PM
IPO Guru (2000+ Posts, 1700+ Likes)
You have hit the nail on the head. New shares are more at risk as there is no record of support level from historical trading and eye opening loss booking by QIBs I remember telling prime focus person that at time of IPO you were not bothered about retail so today retail investor is not bothered about you
James Warren Tea Limited, MOIL & Ajanta Pharma buyback pages not available. Did not check more....may be some other buyback pages are also not available.
Nifty p/e is an important indicator for studying the trend of the market. I am presenting a brief analysis of it with historical connotation. Studying the locus of it may help you to understand something. Jan...feb...mar...april...may...june...july...aug...sept...oct...nov...dec 2020 ..28...26.9..21.4..20.4..21.2...24.7..28.6..31.6..32.6...34...34.3...37.3 2021.38.9..40.8..40.1..32.7.29.8...29.1..28.1..26.1...26.8..27.3.25.1..23.7 2022..24.5..23.7 1..It is a long drawn idea that nifty p/e 23 is a critical point for the market. 2. If it breaks 23 and it goes below 21 range ,it marks reversal of the market as is found in the long term nifty behaviour. 3. In feb 2000 the ratio touched highest 27.1 and as it broke 23 level fall upto 11.2 in may 2003. 4. Thereafter the ratio began to rise and moved upto24.6 in oct 2007 and continued upto 26.6 in dec 2007. 5.After this, continued downfall with some points of aberration the ratio crossed 23 and reached to 23.2 in feb 15. This time the uptrend continued upto 29.3 in june 2019 (up till highest point) with some awkward fluctuations. 6. This trend was subject to minor dip but all on a sudden a huge dip was found in march-april 2020 and moved upto 20.4 in april 2020 for covid dismantling which signifies that price was corrected but earning was there. 7.Now the two yr chart given shows how the ratio improved by and by uptil feb 2021 whereby it reached to ever highest point of 40.8 and surpassed the earlier record by 38 %. It implies that price up gradations were there inspite of loosing earnings . So you may call it price rise in expectation of earnings. 8. In april 2021 the ratio fell to 32.7 all on a sudden signifying significant improvement in the earning front. Thereafter, the fall is continuing signifying improvement in earning front without increase in the price front which has come already and within the price. 9.Covid has made us learn a new thing as is mentioned in para 8. Now it will teach us one more thing that what will be the price behaviour after the effect of covid is over. 10. By the time you see that the ratio has come down to 23.7 in this month with the threat of going lower so at the so called critical point. 11.It is a point of huge interest. Let us see what happens.
106.1. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
February 5, 2022 9:56:46 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
Sir, The pe investors are moving to stable policy regime country like china and started diverting funds already, do you sir foresee indian equity market rebound in near term. Regards 🙏
First of all, thank you for your analysis, it cautions us before investing. 1. But future earnings plays important role in PE ratio which will give you good returns. 2. Further, see PE ratio Sector wise, within the sector, market capital wise - that will give us clear picture among peer companies. Here if we able to predict company future growth properly, we can invest at right price and wait for long term profits 3. One important ratiois PEG - is more useful to check company fair value, it's a ratio PE vs Growth
@ K Atar The query raised by you is a big question . We see that in the last one year there is worth Rs 1.65 lac crore investment by fii in china and withdrawal of Rs 1.33 lac crore from India in the same period. This is a massive transaction .The trend of fii investment in India for the last three year is as follows:- 1. Jan 19 to April 19...............+ve (4m) 2. May 19 to Sept 19...............-ve (5m) 3. Oct 19 to dec 19.................+ve (3m) 4.Jan 20 to April 20.................-ve (4m) 5.May 20 to mar 21..................+ve (11m) except sept 20 6.April 21 to till date..................-ve (11m) 2019 fii investment +39879, dii investment +42256 2020 fii investment +65245, dii investment - ve 35662 2021 fii investment - ve 132970, dii investment +94841 In the last three yrs fii total outflow was about 28 thousand crore,dii investment 1.02 lac cr In march 20 (covid) fii withdrew 65 thousand crore (dii invested 55 thousand cr) and from may 20 fii began buying and dii continued selling. Now what I see 1. It is an age old thought that fii inflow is the driving force of our market. It is absolutely true but now for some years dii has shown great strength atleast as a resistance force and atleast in two occasions in last five years I have seen fii was caught at wrong foot. 2.last two years ups and downs of the market is mostly fii dependent. You will be surprised to see the commensurable nature with fii of the month wise data of two years furnished in the earlier post . 3. At present the market is being played by fii under tough tackling by dii . 4. Fii activity continues for some months in one direction. And the opposite by the dii. 5.The fii outflow has been continuing for eleven months.From oct to till date i.e in a little more than four months fii outflow amounts to 1.45 lac cr. Still the market is not more than 7% down from the top while the American market is down by14% from the top.Don't forget that the top of the market came amidst the huge selling of fii and breached the previous high many times. It signifies that there is a development in broader spectrum of indigenous beyond dii activity. 6.Though there is no signal of concluding selling activity as yet it may reduce/stop at any time as it is continuing for many months. It has been seen in the past that huge selling is often followed by buying reversing the trend. 7.Now on you will see huge volatility in the market without going much lower/higher which will give immense opportunity to conviction traders. 8.A bull market may anytime face 15% correction but that does not mean that the party is over. Yes some cautious approach/ booking partial profit helps standing in case of any reversal. So @ Atar bhai , I don't see any crash for the reason mentioned by you. You will see occasional rebounds and high volatility and the bottam of the market takes place amidst huge volatility. You can preempt any reversal if nifty p/e goes below 21.
Sorry for giving such a big answer for your short query. Thank you
Thanks for sharing this analysis. We are sure this is bound to help a lot of value investors in forming their investment strategy. Ask any value investor like Mr. Buffet on what are some of the key things they look for prior to making an investment into a business and PE would certainly fall in the top three.
Would certainly look forward to similar research pieces and discussions in future as well. Best Wishes & Happy Investing!
106.5. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
February 6, 2022 10:16:15 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
Respected Asoke Sir, Thanks you so much for taking your precious time to collect, research and present this masterpiece, anyone else could have easily ignored my request but you gave detailed and in-depth answer. I really admire your humble approach. Please note that I will keep asking similar questions whose answers I found nowhere. I spent my time reading whatever I find but due to very busy nature of my last few years, could not gave time to financial world, that's why this question, hope I didn't troubled you much, I have genuine respect for the knowledge.
Till 31st March 2021 stand alone earning was used to calculate pe ratio. Thereafter consolidated earning is being used. So pe ratio of 2000 or 2007 or 2020 is not comparable to current pe ratio. I am not an expert.
In the data given by u it can be seen that pe ratio of Apr 2021 is much lower than that of previous month. This is in continuation of my previous message on this thread.