VA Tech Wabag Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 57)

@463 : if you are from this world then you can apply. But today is last day.

Sj bhai

After applying full application in Eross and Va tech, Am left with 1.7L. Planning to apply i full in tech pro and 70K in cantabil. Please suggest if i should change my strategy.

Please provide the latest subscription information

can i apply for VA TECH WABAG LIMITED

@460 : don't give wrong information.

One small correction in projections

Woh kya hua main raat ko 4 baje tak kaam kar raha tha

isilye subah ja excel kiya final toh

NP marging 8 ki jagah 20% le liye

aur face value ko 5 ki jagah 10 hoi gaya


So revised corrected projection is

Forward Revenues EPS and price targets till 2015 are as follows: (figures in crores)

March 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Sales (e) 1390 2200 4400 6300 8200

PAT (e) 78 110 160 198 256

EPS (e) 75 110 155 190 230

Price Targets: (30 PE)

2010 1650

2011 2250

2012 3310

2013 4800

2014 5900

2015 7200


Everything else is ok

Thanks GEM bhai you are a true GEM. aCHA HUA BOL DIYA NAHI O PUBLIC PITTI

lollllll....!!

Sorry boarders

mistake

Plz excuse me

latest subscription at10'0 clock
vatech wabag retail 5 times
Techpro 3 times in retail
Cantabil 7 timesin retail
source nse bse demand graph

Aaj tak chittorhghar.com me ye company ne itnaa jagah liyaa utnaa kisi company ne nahi leeya

Kus fool logo ko sks 900 pay sab kus saaf lag raha tha, ab 1400 pay buy kar rahay hi, isi tarah yah 1300 pay mahga lag raha hi listing kay baad 2000 pay sasta lagay ga, agar aisay fool lag market may na ho tho operater profit kaisay kamai.

I am appling 8 full appl. Today it will subcribe 10 to 15 times in retail, listing may be 1800.

Dear Boarders

This is my summary of the report plus future projections as per my excel sheets till 2015 of revenue projections and price targets. Please bare in mind that this information is good enough for you currently and sufficient for you to convince wether to apply or not
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VA TECH WABAG is a multinational player in the water treatment industry with market presence in India, the Middle East, NorthAfrica, Central and Eastern Europe, China and South East Asia through our principal offices in India, Austria, theCzech Republic, China, Switzerland, Algeria, Romania, Tunisia, UAE, Libya and Macao with 2 Direct and 11 indirect. Headquartered in Chennai . In 2007, the Company acquired Wabag Austria the parent with the help of funding from ICICI Ventures and hence took over the Wabag group.


Sector :

WATER is a scarce commodity. Commodity Guru Jim rogers said that in future if Water was available for trading he would be the first few to buy a contract.

1) The global supply of freshwater is relatively fixed, and unevenly distributed. Total global water reserves
are estimated to be 1.4 billion cubic kilometers, of which nearly 97.5% is salt water in oceans, and the
balance 2.5% forms the available fresh water reserves. Groundwater and surface water, which together
constitute approximately 0.76% of the total water on the planet are the most easily accessible and used
sources of water. Rest of the fresh water is either locked up in the form of glaciers and permanent snow
cover, or is inaccessible to humans

2) The world‟s population is growing by about 80 million people a year, implying increased freshwater demand of about 64 billion cubic metres a year. An estimated 90% of the 3 billion people who are expected to be added to the population by 2050 will be in developing countries, many in regions where the current population does not have
sustainable access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are expected to see more than 60% of the world‟s population growth and account for half of world population in 2100

3) Urbanization is another megatrend that is stressing water infrastructure. The urban population is expected to double by 2030 in Africa and Asia; with towns and cities of the developing world making up for close to 81% of the total urban population. Overall, urban dwellings are estimated to account for close to 60% of world‟s population


4) The global water industry is estimated to be USD 463 billion in 2007. The water utilities (Municipal Water & Waste water) and Industrial market comprises of almost 75% of the market or about USD 350 billion market in 2007 and as per Global Water Markets estimates it is expected to grow to USD 530 billion by 2016.

5) India with 2.4% of the world‟s total area has 16% of the world‟s population; but has only 4% of the total
available fresh water. In India, per capita fresh water availability has dropped from 4000 m3/year in 1962 to
1647 m3/ year in 2007





Now Financial Observations:

1)      The company’s order backlog grew from 446 crores to 1231 crores from 2007-2010 i.e. 150%
2)      It executes 50% order backlog every year
3)      Its baclog as on June 2010 was 3000 crores
4)      Its return on capital employed increased from 13% to 33% in 2007-2010
5)      Its operating margin increased from 6% to 13% in 2007-2010. This will rise further to 20% when they start to get BOOT AND PPP projects that yield higher returns. In Europe their margins will grow from 4% to 12.5 due to BOOT AND PPP model and due to setting up local bases. That will also increase profits in future.
6)      Three of its loss making subsidiraes are expected to turnaround and contribute significantly to revenues from 2012-2015 onwards
7)      It’s a debt free company with 120 crores of free cash
8)      It will use it as acquisition in other foreign locations.
9)      Its EPS on consolidated basis that is more important coz it is MNC is 52 as on March 2010 and increased from 6 in March 2008.
10)      The income tax expense increased 200% due to change in accounting rules one time that is provisioning for bad and doubtful debts gratuity changes financial charges etc. If Profit before Tax is taken its Profits grew at CAGR of 200% plus from 7 crores in 2008 to 81 crores in 2010.
11)      Due to seasonability of its business that leads to greater revenues in last quarter of the year there is ,lower sales growth in March 2010 compared to march 2009.
12)      The company is Using IPO proceeds to meet working capex that will reduce its burden on profit and loss significantly and also preserve the cash in its books for acquisitions and not for General Corporate Purposes
13)      The shares have given to prominent institutions like Govt of Singapore and India Advantage fund at an average price of 1235 per share. So 1310 is not asking too much of issue price.
14)      Because of its nature of business it has high creditor days from suppliers who trust company and high debtor days of government bodies who are customers and pay once 6 months of project is complete. So there in no problem in debtor and creditor days and due to business nature it stays high
15)      60% plus of its revenuesderived from Municipal Bodies that is the trend the world over. It is high margin area. And payments and gaurenteed by government and no client defaults witnessed and hence Safe
16)      THE GOI is tripling water based projects by 2016 as per 12 th plan. Water Business has been given Infra status and been allowed 100% FDI
17)      The Industry PE is 30 on average. Ion Exchange is the only competitor which is pure play with PE of 39.
18)      Post IPO its price at higher band based on consolidated earnings is 22-24 PE. Which is not too steep.

Forward Revenue Projections:

As the sectoral growth rates are as follows:

The company’s business can be divided into four parts:

1)      Municipal Business Group : contributes 63% of revenues and will grow at 40% CAGR
2)       Industrial Water Business Group: contributes 12% revenues and grow at 30% CAGR
3)      Operations Business Group: contributes 5% revenues and will grow at 20% CAGR
4)      International Business Group contributes 20% of revenues and will grow at 20% CAGR

Since it enjoys 50% market share and enjoys leadership and superior techn ology with 157 patents larger players will take 3—4 years to imitate it and till then it will enjoy scarcity premium.

Based on this and other valuation metrics and reports on sector outlook till 2015 in india and other markets where it has focus

Forward Revenues EPS and price targets till 2015 are as follows: (figures in crores)

March 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Sales (e) 1390 2200 4400 6300 8200

PAT (e) 280 440 850 1250 2350

EPS (e) 75 110 155 190 230

Price Targets: (30 PE)

2010 1650

2011 2250

2012 3310

2013 4800

2014 5900

2015 7200


SO THIS IS TO BE HELD FOR NEXT 3-4 YEARS FOR GOOD RETURNS


I think this much analysis is enough for you and excel sheets and word documents will be given later due to shortage of time

Regards
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DISCLAIMER: Me and my clients have added VA tech in their portfolio and I am noway to be held responsible for anybody’s decision and you are advices to take caution and own research before taking decision.

chittorgarh main va tech 125 cr ka hai jabki aaj economic times main 475 cr ka diya hai.aisa kyon?

cantabill ka rating moneycontrol aur cnbc tv18 main va tech se achha hai.kya cantabill main apply karna chahiye?

Why is this issue subscribed 36 times by QIB

If the IPO is avoidable , can somebody explain why QIB portion is subscribed more than 36 times?

SJ,

I dropped you a mail yesterday. Can you please reply back?
I have a question about Ramky IPO. I have invested 1 lakh there and as the retail subscription was less, how much should I hold after the stock is listed?

~Manoj

SABKO KOOT KE RAKH DEGA

ONE CAN WIT FOR SEP 2010 RESULTS FROM VA TECH N THEN THINK OF BUYING FROM SECONDARY MARKET AS INDEED THEY HAVE LEFT VERY LITTLE ON TABLE FOR IPO INVESTORS.

BOTH EQUITYMASTER N SP TULSIAN HAVE GIVEN SOUND LOGICAL ARGUEMENTS TO SKIP THIS EXPENSIVE IPO.

SAARI MALAI KHUD HI KHA JANA CHAHTE HAIN.

THODA TO TABLE PAR CHODA HOTA

445 ARYANRAJ

PRICE WATER HOUSE COOPERS IS ACCOUNTING FIRM

ICICI VENTURES IS PRIVATE EQUITY FIRM

ACCOUNTING FIRMS CAN MISREPRESENT ACCOUNTS COZ THEY ARE PAID MONEY BY COMPANY


BUT ICICI VENTURES ARE INVESTING MONEY IN COMPANY

WHY WILL THEY CREATE FRAUD OR IGNORE RAUD IN THE COMPANY THEY ARE PUTTING MONEY INTO


GEM SAID 4% PROFIT MARGIN BUT YOU CAN HAVE ROLL THE INVENTORY 4 TIMES IN ONE MONTH.

BUT 12% IS ANNUAL FD


SO IF EVERY MONTH I ROLEOVER MY SALES THAN IN I YEAR MY RETURN ON EQUITY IS 4% NP MARGIN *12 MONTHS

IS 48% RETURN VERSUS 12% FD

THIS IS TO GIVE YOU EXAMPLE


AND I SAID EVEN THAT ARE GOING TO INCREASE IN FUTURE


WHO IS CONTRADICATING

GEM IS CLEARING CONFUSION

AND I AM SAYING IT WILL INCREASE


YOU HAVE A SHOP AND YOU DO NOT HAVE INTEREST IN IT

BUT COMPANY HAS INTEREST IN ITS BUSINESS

AND THEY REWARD EMPLOYEES BY GIVING SHARES CHEAP


ESOPS ARE GIVEN WITH LOCK IN PERIOD OF ONE YEAR

SO THE EMPLOYEES GIVEN ESSOP IN 2007 WITH ONE YEAR LOCK IN

SOLD IN 2010 COZ THEY GOT GOOD RETURNS

THEY STILL ARE DOING JOB THERE

IF THEY DID NOT BELIVE IN FUTURE WHY DID THEY STILL DO JOB THERE AFTER SELLING STAKE IN EARLY 2010 ?


ESOP IS GIVEN AT DISCOUNT AND NOT AT RATE OF PUBLIC


THEY CAN EXERCISE THAT ESSOP AT 1215 WHEN THEY WERE ALLOTE AT 400

TWO YEARS AGO

THAT THEY SOLD TO ENAM

THAT IS PERMITTED BY LAW


NOW YOU ARE MAKING NEW CORPORATE LAW AFTER MAKING NEW ACCOUNTING RATIOS



You ...seriously........!!


what shud i say to you


i pitty you really



Only this to seee



GET WELL SOOON MAMU...!!!


AND GOOD NIGHT

NOW YOU KEEP ON POSTING ME


I WILL NOT REPLY to the STUPID LOGIC of AN EGOISTIC ARROGANT IGNORANT guy ..!!

LIKE YOURSELF

REGARDS

Server does not means buying computers. In engineering business you need servers to track machinery onsite from office or control tower through GPRS AND RIM technologies to moitor huge projects.
That not only reduce cost but also increases efficiency

You obviously have not worked in water treatment company but i have worked in water treatmenst company that is listed on nse called SUBHASH PROJECTS in delhi. the director is JAIN and relative of my elder cousin brother.

Whats wrong in that. yes it is also building office furniture and also funding some working CAPEX because excessive increase in order book to 3000 crores


The cash in its books that has been audited will be used for Acquisition purpose. So they are not touching it. They will go for acquistion of smaller companies with advanced technology in global markets which they have said in many press releases

Do you think ICICI Ventures were fulls and did not audit accounts before investing in it 5 years ago ....? If their Cash balance was fake then they would have got caught by PE firms. PE FIRMS ARE NOT FOOLS. tHEY DO DUE DILIGENCE EVEN STRICTER THAN ACCOUNTING FIRMS WHO ARE PAID TO SHOW MANIPULATED ACCOUNTS. tHEY ARE PUTTING HUGE MONEY AND HIRE SMART GUYS...

NOW WHY SHOULD THEY TOUCH THAT MONEY SAID ASIDE FOR AQUISITION FROM IPO PROCEEDS.

EVERY COMPANY LISTS ITSELF TO AATRACT MORE BRAND VISIBILITY AND INVESTORS.

THEY HAVE ALREADY SO MUCH CASH READY FOR AQUISTION. THEY ARE JUST LISTING THE COMPANY BEFORE THAT AND USING EXCESS IPO PROCEEDS FOR GENERAL REQUIREMENTS SO THAT THERE ACQUISTION PLAN THROUGH CASH SET ASIDE DOES NOT GETS DISTURBED IN THESE PURPOSES.

==============================

counter question =

you said all these money are audited and cleared by so and so. you say this money will be used for acusition and everything written in ipo rhp why money is raised. my simple question was didn;t satyam's raju had cooked books to acuire matyas? didn't he siphoned off cash by selling his promoter share. and pe firms/audit firms are not fools so what PricewaterhouseCoopers was doing? it's one of the big 4s.

====================

YES THEY RAISED MONEY TO SET ASIDE CASH FOR AQUISTIONS. WHATS WRONG IN THAT.

THE PROMOTER ON CNBC SAID THAT IN IPO THEY ARE NOT SELLING ANY SHARES ...THATS ABSOULTELY RIGHT

BUT MANY COMPANIES HAVE DONE THAT

EVEN SKS MICROFINANCE SOLD SHARES TO NARAYANMURTHY AND GEORGE SOROS BEFORE IPO

SO WHATS THE PROBLEM IN THAT

ESSSOPS ARE PROVIDED AT CHEAP RATE AND ARE PART OF BONUS OF EMPLOYES UNDERSTOOD AND NOT AN OPTION TO INVEST

SO IT IS GIVEN AT HIGHLY DISCOUNTED PRICES

YOU DONT HAVE IDEA OF ESOP THEN GO AND READ ABOUT IT

IF I GIVE YOU ESOP OF SHARE AT 1300 RUPEES AND MARKET PRICE IS 1300 THEN WHAT PROFIT will that employee earn and what bonus he got...?

he just got shares like public and did not get any money as renumeration.

GO AND READ HOW ESSOP IS PRICED AND WHY IT IS DONE...FIRST

ARE YOU WORKING IN THE COMPANY THAT THEY WILL GIVE YOU SHARE AT ESSOP RATE ..?


WHEN YOU START A BUSINEES YOU ARE ALLOTED SHARES AT 10 EUPEES FACE VALUE ONLY

THEN YOU MAKE A BUSINESS AND GROW IT. IF BUSINESS EARNS PROFITS WHICH IS ADDED BACK TO SHARE CAPITAL AND THE VALUE OF YOUR SHARE GOES TO FROM RS 10 TO 1000 RUPEES ALSO

HAVE YOU RUN THE BUSINESS THAT YOU WILL BE GIVEN SHARES AT FACE VALUE

DID YOU START THE BUSINEESS

WHAT STUPID LOGIC YOU HAVE...?

=========================

I know esop and i know why promoters sell stakes. you dont have to confuse other boarders. let me give a laymen example to those who don't understand our debate.

i have a shop and i dont have interest in that nor does my emplyees (hypothatical siuation) so my emplyoees whom i said i'll not only give salary but profits share too (since i dont have equity shares i give them cash every month) now want to start new business and offload current shops financials to others. i know i get 100 rs pm from shop but a month before selling the shop i and my employee give false statment that we get 130 rs profit. thats what these guys are doing. and esops are not given on discount niether are allowed to be sold to anyone, if you know what esop is.

=================================

AS PER ICRA REPORT IN DRHP AT THE END


ITS MARGINS IN 2010 IN INDIA IS 9%

THIS IS BECAUSE THEY WERE OPERATING AT TURNKEY BASIS

BUT NOW GOVERNMENT

has allowed 100% FDI and infrastructure status to water business

so now they will give Built Operate Own transfer BOOT model and TOT Transfer on transfer basis model to companies like vatech

That commands margin of 20%

ANd 4% margin is in europe . But now after they have established base their and BOOT project are started they will get 12% margin in europe as welll

PLUS IN SUB SAHARAN AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST WHERE WATER IS ABSOLUTE NECESSITY

AND MANPOWER IS CHEAP

THEY WILL OPERATE AT MARGINS EVEB HIGHER THAN INDIA

=======================

if margins are not key to judge sucess and profit like you and gem said than why this post. either your later posts are invalid or this answer.

============================

anyways, i have disclosed my applications in ramky, orient and of current lot only tecpro looks nice. o/w i'm going to short market after 1st week and skipping these. brought these debates for sake of boarders and readers.

thanks gem and sj for healthy debate. we shold just not crticize or proclaim but look both side of coin. it's all about money, honey.