United Cotfab Limited IPO Message Board (Page 2)

I assume pocketing S2 profits for that amount of bid is a low return bet. Feels more like cornering at IPO price, pump post listing and then off-loading it to grab a bigger chunk.

So, most probably option 2. @PLAZA

It is common for some HNIs to apply for the maximum number of shares allowed for the IPO ( issue size). Also, this IPO has no reservation for QIBs. So, they would get clubbed with NIIs. I wouldn't read too much into the fact that 12 applicants applied for the maximum size. In my opinion, whether operators will do khela will be independent of that.

This phenomenon can be seen in all BOA and there will be large no of applications in last row or last but one on number of shares applied

​@PLAZA
1) My observation is, this huge chunk of applications may be from QIB. As per BOA, this 12 applicants have applied for 5,90,88,000 shares. That is maximum quantity allowable (4924000 shares) x 12 applications = 5,90,88,000 shares. This is more or less matching with QIB subscriptions of 5,51,46,000 shares as per BSE data.

2) There is also possibility of few from Corporates and ultra hni for this maximum allowable quantity.

3) Good thing is QIB has applied for 22.4 times out of which FII figure is 11.42 times. Overall, OTHERS (i.e. QIB + NII) subscription is 137.21 times as per BSE Data.

​@PLAZA Regarding low GMP,
1) Most of the people including me think that the current GMP of Rs.13 is very low for the current market condition. But the textile sector is not fancy one and so always undervalued.

2) My finding is that the latest GMP of Rs.13/- for Cotfeb is matching with the one of the peers namely Lagnam as detailed below.

United Cotfab:
i) Asking P/E = 13.89 times as per DD
ii) Post P/BV = 2.41 as per DD
iii) EPS based Mar 2024 earnings and IPO price = Rs.5.04 (i.e. Rs.8.67 crores / 1.719 crores of shares = Rs.5.04)
iv) Post equity capital = Rs.17.19 crores

Lagnam
i) P/E Ratio = 16.5 as per DD.
ii) P/BV = 2.46 (Based on March 2024 earning figure – NSE data)
iii) EPS = 8.25 (As per March 2024 earning figure – NSE data)
iv) Equity capital = Rs.17.66 crores (NSE data)

Justifcation for current GMP of Rs.13

P/BV is more or less matching for both the companies.
Equity share capital is also more or less matching.
So taking the P/E Ratio of 16.5 (Lagnam) for United Cotfeb also, the probable listing price works out Rs.83/- (i.e. 5.04 x 16.5 = 83.16 rounded off to 83). This is clearly matching with IPO Price + current GMP (i.e. 70 +13 = 83).

3) Expected listing price/closing price for United cotfab on 24-06-2024
By taking the current price of Lagnam (Rs.151.49 on 21-06-2024 (4.76% jump on single day)), the current P/E Ratio works out 18.36 times (i.e. 151.49/8.25 = 18.36) and so we may expect listing price of United Cotfab up to Rs.93 (i.e. Rs.5.04 x 18.36 = 92.53 rounded off to 93), if market condition is good.

Conclusion: Man proposes, market disposes.

Disclaimer: I am allotted with one lot and I may be biased.

​@PLAZA Some bank also applied
Max no of share in ipo

TXS FOR REPLY . I also noted as there are about 10 to 12 application found in each good issue i.e. maximum shares one can apply in NII category but this phenomena generally seen in small issue upto 40 cr where NII and retail quota around 15 crore so maximum application amount will be 15 cr but if assume that same guys have capacity to apply upto 40 to 50 cr in a single application then they might be some corporate or banks but question arises banks and other institutions can apply in NII quota . If yes then why 12 there can be N number of applications so I think this is from regular 10 to 12 persons who used to apply in all good issue and having huge availability of funds .
It is just to measure our assumptions only just for querrecity....

Hope will get few new aspects during discussion. @DEVBULL Really very nicely explained with data ...

​@PLAZA 
In the Fixed Price SME IPOs, there is no quota for NII. Reservation is for MM and Retails only. Balance shares are for “OTHERS” which include everybody except MM and Retails. As per the BSE data furnished below, one can see the subscription figures of FIIs, DIIs, Others under QIB and Corporates, Individuals, Others under NII, all put together "OTHERS" category (i.e. other than Retail and MM)

FIIs = 2,81,20,000 shares
DIIs = 4,000 shares
Others = 2,70,22,000 shares
Sub total under QIB = 5,51,46,000 shares = 22.4 times

Corporates = 2,97,54,000 shares
Individuals = 23,32,96,000 shares
Others = 1,96,20,000 shares
Sub total under NII = 28,26,70,000 shares = 114.81 times

Grand total for “OTHERS” = 33,78,16,000 shares = 137.21 times

​@DEVBULL @MuStrFc 38 lot k 2 application aaye he jo ki.0.5 % se bohat jada he per allotment 0 he as per ipo rule 0.5 se uper application ko confirm allotment milta hi he per 38 lot k category me allotment nil he?

​@DEVBULL Yes now got the point and mechanism .@Nitin oswal IMO there is no guarantee of allotment if in a particular lot subscription in total of lots is more then .5 % . Actually it depends of availability of shares . One more thing I noticed if subscription is less say in between 75 to 200 chances of allotment is nearby upto 56% and on the contrary if subscription figure is above 500 then chance of allotment is even upto 45% but finally it is all permutations and computation of availability of shares ...Pl correct if missed something...

​@Nitin oswal Congratulations. We are in same boat . Me too

Congrats !! @Nitin oswal @PLAZA

Congratulations @PLAZA

કેટલા લોટ કર્યા હતા?

Got 1 lot as well. Nothing blockbuster likely, but should give a small pop atleast 🤞

​@MuStrFc Thank you dear. @bharatbhai Pl write in भारत language to understand. @rohiitian Congratulations. Something is better then nothing . As got no allotment in allotment big hni in gp

Kitne lot ki bid ki thi?

​@DEVBULL I have also applied single 112 lots HNI application here, will I be getting the confirm lot as it's very close to overall subscription figure?

​@PeterEngland Theoretically, you will get confirmed allotment up to 21 applicants in your category size of 112 lots. Thereafter, on lottery only. If there are 22 applicants, the ratio would be 21:22. But don't worry. There would be very few applicants only in your category size, if not you alone.

Thanks you sir for the reply, I didn't understand how did you calculated the number 21 and the ratio 21:22 here, possible to explain the process here please?

I will update the allotment status tomorrow here.

​@PeterEngland 
1) My earlier calculation was based on CG figure of 114.71 times. In this IPO, reservation is made for MM and Retail category only. Balance shares are meant for OTHERS which include NII and QIB. As per BSE data, OTHERS category (i.e. NII and QIB) is subscribed for 137.21 times. Accordingly, you will get sure allotment up to 2 applicants in your category size of 112 lots (i.e. 112 lots x 2 applicants /137.21 times = 1.63 lots rounded off to 2 lots allotment). If there are 3 applicants, then the ratio would be 2:3 (i.e. 112 lots x 3 applicants / 137.21 times = 2.45 rounded off to 2 lots allotment). This may be taken as correct.

2) My earlier calculation based on CG figure of 114.71 times is (i) 112 lots x 21 applicants /114.71 times = 20.50 rounded off to 21 lots allotment (i.e. 21:21) and (ii) 112 lots x 22 applicants / 114.71 times = 21.48 rounded off to 21 lots allotment (i.e. 21:22). This may be ignored now.

​@DEVBULL Meaning thereby if one applied for 102 lot then will get allotment if there is only one application of this lot and if two application then one out of two confirmed and second on availability of excess shares as 202×2÷137 = 1.49
Pl correct if there is any error

​@PeterEngland  Yes, you are correct. Regarding last part, I have not studied the carried over figures of excess shares and how they are allocated. However, it seems your understanding may be correct.

* The above para is reply to @PLAZA

​@DEVBULL Yes excess shares are allocated as per requirement of lower to higher . As i used to apply taking projected excess shares availability and got allotment if excess shares reached to the applied level....

Allotted two lots on two big hni application. Hope for a good listing.

Allotted one lot here with single 112 lots application.
@DEVBULL thanks for your guidance on the allotment probability calculation.

Congratulations @PLAZA

HNI figures are incorrect, do total - retail to get correct HNI numbers

Hni subscription is 137x

Yes, applied for 3 X 46 lots hoping to get one allottment.

Allotment will be one out of four or two out of four?

If four applications, the allottment will be 1 out of 4. 46X 4 = 184, 184/137 will be less than 1.5. Hence, 1 out of 4. Thanks to @DEVBULL  for educating me

0/3

1/3 allottment. Earlier message can be ignored

Allotted…:Thanks

Not even 87 lots application was enough to get allotment!!

​@RPM Really it is bed luck. I think in 87 lot there are minimum one more application so it is on lottery . Wish good luck for next IPO .
ऐसा हमारे साथ तो कई बार हुआ है. Try for next ...

​@PLAZA  I thought 87 is very unique to get allotment but it seems I was wrong. Hopefully atlesst 1 allotment from fee ipos closing tmr.

​@RPM As per BOA there are 4 application of 87 lots and only two allotted . Its a pure lottery game dear . hope for best next time.

No luck here 😕

Completely missed it today due to some personal reasons. Will look to add it in coming days.