TeamLease Services Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 38)

If boarder have asked my view on team lease IPO...... as boarder know i just do not put one liner avoid or apply i put my view forward as why i am going to avoid or why i am going apply.

Team lease IPO as i had earlier said on EPS and PE earning this is very expensive buy fundamental then few will informed boarder said u cannot go my PE fundamental not future cashflow this company generate bcoz TLC will be in high growth the correct method is DCF

So i went ahead and done the DCF and said if growth rates r met then the price asking is alright that is without any margin of safety however if i put 30% margin of safety then it is very expensive at such price.... SO again based on fundamental my choice was avoid

Then few learned boarder said yes DCF also shows no go zone but international that FII like companies like these then compared with top HR companies international and found the most expensive company is still at half the price....

the few board said then why GMP is so high GMP was high for Monte Carlo power Mech and many more however market corrected it

one more very very important thing i found was the margins in last five years best margin is 1.5% on top line when adecco and other players have margin of 10%.. that is big or huge difference close to 7 times

So my take is grey market and other is punting that margin will improve considerable this margin improvement aand growth in top line will have a very positive effect on bottom line hence the price asking for this questionable margin growth potential the share is price at reasonable price so that is reason GMP is also high...

Also even if margins improve i think top line will not grow that fast and my reasoning is that presently according red herring the top staffing temp on book is close to 100000 and top line is 2000 crores which in layman term the pay per employee they receive from godrej and rest client is approx 2 lakhs per temp staff.

so if margin stays same that is 1.5% and top line grows in order to get to the DCF price i calculated earlier top in 2025 should be 23000 crores and wages per temp will also increase so top temp staff on books should be close to half a million in 2025.
now is this growth possible based on unskilled job market i think not possible bcoz this is a very very un organised market organise players account for less then 15% of the top market and according studies organise players can double this in next 10 years so TLC is look to grow 5 times in sector which can only double... which is not possible. So growth in top line is not possible however growth in bottom line is possible with big question mark

Now come to management first class they have done a very good job also they have done a very good job selling the IPO with such low margin...

now the question would i apply many contributors wanted to know NO i am not going to apply....

I do not apply for price will increase i apply if i will buy this on secondary market and the answer is no...

looking at GMP if one want to apply for list gain then one should apply i too believe this will list at premium given the demand for such companies however do not stay long if any of the very high indicators r not met it will have a big drop

Pls give ur valuable feedback

Septa hats off for patience to write such a huge review. Looks very very pricey but may give good listing gain. So may be good for listing gain only.

@Septa,

UR spot on! Just a few additions to ur exhaustive note:

(1) It will require 35% sales growth & 22% margin growth (or a similar combination thereof) in order to get the required 66% ''Earnings Growth'' as implied in asking P/E of 66! This is crazy. Now, if u add GMP then this absolutely breaches all barriers of rationality.
(2) What will be the P/E when you try to exit, say after 3-5 years? By then this balloon would have totally busted, many new players would have entered with a few of them becoming ''public'' (e.g. QuessCorp has already filed draft prospectus), and therefore a more rational P/E would have been established. You would be lucky if the prevailing P/E for this industry after few years is anything more than 20. This is not a new frontier. In US Staffing business is an established industry with hundreds of players- it''s a highly fragmented & competitive industry due to low barriers to entry. The prevailing P/E for all the major players is between 10-20.
(3) So, there you go, entering at P/E 66 and exiting at 20, a few years later. I have done my calculations & exhort you to do yours. I''ve assumed a CAGR of Sales of 23% and 10% increase in Margin every year. I''m getting less than 5% annual compounding returns from this stock after holding it for 5 years just becaI bought it with an arm & a leg!

Disclaimer: The aforesaid is purely from the perspective of medium to long term investing. ST listing gain/loss is a mirage and I have happy to let it elude me.

Retailer 1 hi lot dalna , nehi toh alotment nehi hoga.

i will apply after qib quota 10 times subscribed

Teamlease GMPs 250-257

then what possibility of subscription time xxx...8 times or 14 times becathere is limited applicaion in the market , what chance of allotment 1 out of 10 or 15..may any guess guys ??

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ipo-watch-teamlease-may-not-be-a-good-buy-for-retail-investors/articleshow/50764713.cms

Economic Times View- Avoid

This issue is a bouncer. I will again wait for QIB n NII figures as I did for PCL. Nothing till then.

Rajiv sir NII will cross 50x

SP Tulsian view- Avoid the issue. Costly IPO.

Team Lease grey market premium is seen at Rs.245 – Rs.255, with more buying interests seen in the stock, from the informed circles, from Mumbai. Minimum application premium is seen at Rs.500 – Rs.600

at that time alkem gmp 240 kostak 1400,
but tcl gmp 250 kostak only 450-500 its huge differance..

Eagleye, septa teamlease applay or not,gmp 240-250 but high veluastion so i m confuse..thanks in advance

If you are confused ... keep it simple ... be covered ... apply in IPO ... and sell in grey ... lock-in 250/-

But kostak only 450 minimum application

most of the time it was observed that which ipo s were suggested by analysts to avoid the ipo by analysing too deeply. But Most of the time most ipos were blockbusters. Sometimes our sense tells us it is a gud company , then v shud listen to ours only. market is not too analytical.

That is exactly what I meant too. In reality if one were to take a 25 year history of IPOs more than 80% have gone to much less than issue price and many more companies are not in existence now. The moment one looks at a time frame of 5-10 years the way septa did for pcl , the decision taken becomes prudent and al long term requirement of business assume importance to be a successful investor. However this does not hold good for short term horizon or trading.

will said u should go with gut feeling both apply or avoid

OU Ai,

Yes of course ... "NH is a good business model" ... However, may I request you to kindly go back to the NH discussion page and please help me identify 3 persons who said so before the IPO got listed ...

With my brief experience ... What I have learnt here is that ...
In this market, everyone''s hindsight vision is 20:20 whereas our foresight suffers from cataract.

Investing is not based on how many opine" it is good" here on board. One has to put in his own assessment too for his money. If one was looking it for a longer term. On the other hand, If one keeps their foresight and expectations up to listing day alone then , why cataract ,even blindness is possible.

To say that past is 100% right and future is uncertain , one does not need any experience. It is a fact indeed in every wake and activity of life. Why only stock market?

Sir,
Well Said ! ... Very Philosophical !!

Dear ALL,
Extensive knowledge displayed here by few boarders does not mean they are the best decision makers in investing. You need to take final call without praising or blaming anyone. Several research has shown that most knowledgeable analysts generated less than average returns due to their excessive information hampering their investment quotient & challenging attitude resulting in impulsive actions. Statistical evidences are available & volumes of books written after observing past 2 decades behavior and performance of their knowledge & investment.

Alkem Labs & NH were good business models with good governance. There was no need of anyone'' s opinion to invest in them. Neither the grey market support. Here,if the IPO lists at premium, then those who recommended are treated as knowledgeable whereas other way round fan following ceases! Most knowledgeable person here also can not predict, however much effort he/she puts in the dynamics on a shorter time. One has to go by certain principals of good business, market position, technology, fair practices etc
Take your own decision by absorbing with information you get from here, gain your own experience to develop the best investment style suited to you. After all it''s your money.

Yes of course ...

"Sunno Sabki ... Karo Mann Ki"

but you read comment means you try to rely on the board members to some extent

any other ipo is in queue on feb month

Dear Septa & Eagleye sir, would you please tell me whether you''re going to apply for teamlease or not???? Reply expected........

I have not firmed up my mind as yet ... it is too early to take a firm decision ... will first look at the Anchor Investors list on Monday evening ...

HOS: Good quality FIIs (e.g. T.Rowe Price & Wellington) are likely to participate as Anchors.


As of now, I am intending to "Apply in NII category & sell in Grey" (on per share basis - not kostak basis) ... However, I may change my mind (will keep you informed) ...

This is unique story,....fiibies loves such kind of issues.....must apply.....

Don''t gives any details of p/e,...eps...eps before issues.,post issues ..us dfs..etc etc.....look at psl issue,all in vain .....

dear motabhais,
i havr a question.
how can i apply in five a account from one bank account.

hello everybody
how many times will this issue be suscribed .Any guess??

teamlease will list at rs 1100 if market go up and up may be

Mapped by PAN

TSL GMP 245-250 per share (activity has picked up)

still couldnt get.. ABRAR saying for one demat it is only allowed for one applicant? If so then only Rs 200000 possible for me?

Yes, one account in your name ... and one another account in your wife''s name ...

Dear Boarders,
Kindly clarify me this... I have demat account with ICICI and there I can subscribe for an IPO of maximum 200000 Rs. I also have an SBI account where ASBA is supported, now there can I add my wife PAN and link to my same ICICI demat(DP ID and Client ID) and apply for another 20000 Rs? Is there any other possibility to subscribe for more number of lots like this?

NOT POSSIBLE
The answer is not possible. If you do so, all your application will be rejected, moreover its a financial fraud to do so. One PAN=One Application in One demat (even if you have 2 demat accounts under One PAN Card)
You should apply through ASBA
Open one Demat account in wife''s name, but remember, if she doesn''t have her own income and you transfer cash/money to her income, it is clubbing under IT laws
By the way why are you still with ICICI securities when the world is turning to discount brokers with 1/10th of the cost of an ICICI or any other full service broker?

Thank you ABRAR... yes I do have account with Zerodha but my Demat with IFSL was closed. Is it mandatory to have a demat account to apply for an IPO? BTW My wife also works in a company