Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited IPO Message Board (Page 17)

premium fall 45 to 25 !!

kitna jaa sakta he !!

It may not list at discount.

However, listing above Rs. 560 would be very difficult, which translate into maximum gain of 35 per share.

Whatever the case it may be, I will apply.

I am from the native place where TMB's head office is located ... It has good name all around our state ,... Growth wise this is best ... but share holding wise there are lot of legal issues , which is never ending .... Also TMB is not allowed to open new branch ...hopefully once after IPO if RBI allows opening of new branch , then more firework is expected ... I believe listing will be muted ... Ppl strictly applying for listing gain wait till 5th around 1:30 pm , take decision based on QIB subscription ... My guess is it may go like Rainbow (Which listed negatively but performing better now )...

When CSB Bank got listed with IPOprice of 195, it was a loss makimg bank with 96 yrs of existence., backed by Billonare Prem Watsa, who holds 49% in the bank. It got listed at 270 Rs and made a high of 370. He made the bank a big turn around, whi ch current has a EPS of 26 Rs. TMB is a much bigger bank which has just completed 100 yrs, gave a massive bonus of 500: 1 in 2016 to its shareholders. A strong management, with strong financials and backed by foreign investors, the listing shd be strong. On EPS of 57 Rs for March 2022, the offer given at 525 is damn cheap , which gives a pe of less than 10. It is available at a P/BV of 1.4, whih is quite cheap compared to cub, icici bank , axis bank, etc. There was a shapr reduction in NPA'S in the march qtr results. It has paid a 100% dividend to shareholders , on completion of 100 Yrs. This leaves a lot of room for higher listing for shareholders and even a post listing , it shd deserve a pe of at least 12, whcih gives a price of 684Rs. Rest will depend on what valuation will the mkt give to the bank and investors perception of the bank

@admin,
Gentle reminder.

I'd like to get everyone's opinion in this ...

main problem comes Consistency of profit....u cant make 20 consecutive profitable trades...if a person on earth can do that...can be billionaire within 1 year.....this refers to the same example. pepole says if u can doubl ur money from day 1 by starting from 1rs by hook or crook for next 30 days u will end up with 100cr+
risk is just 1 rs
if u try for 10years ie. 120 months...only 1months complete cycle will make 100cr


its not possible nor impossible...

Mathematically BIG yes. This holds good for any business venture if one can do it! Why just stock market? Any listed company or entrepreneur, even a taxi driver and so on can attempt to earn each day just a meagre 0.5% extra.. There is also BIG if. Factor in the following in this formula,

1. Probability of not earning 0.5% .. with number of days
2. Probability of losing 0.5% or more in x number of days
3. If above in point 2 happens probability of restarting with lower capital from the previous end of the day if booked loss
4. Probability of not booking loss and continuing with loss position hoping to recoup the purchase price during which subsequent day's capital reduced by blocked capital
5. Probability of not booking a profit on where 0.5% is achieved expecting more upside in which case again capital is blocked

When one factors as above and multiplies with formula the returns will be aligned to
A. Market movement
B. Rational decision by investor
and get tempered down to 15 -20% with luck

History has shown that a trader does not make as much wealth as a long term investor.

For example those who were short got caught of guard yesterday with short covering. And those who went long looking at momentum of yesterday may be in for another unpleasant surprise with SGX NIFTY down by 300 points for tomorrow. A big factoring of incorrect decisions emerging out of mis-judgements need to be factored in too... My thoughts and experience

First of all it is not possible to have 100% success ratio in trading. Even if you can achieve 70% success ratio, then you are an exceptional trader. Now going by this if you make 0.5% return on 168 days (70% out of 240 days) you get 84% return but you also lose 0.5% on remaining 72 days which is 36%. So net you make 48% return which is not at all bad if you can achieve it.
But practically loss is always bigger than the profit as we book profit of 0.5-1% very quickly but when the trade goes opposite we wait for longer time and end up losing even 3-4% in a day.

So to sum up,

Control greed
Trust the process
Operate with a stop loss
Maintain discipline of 0.5% after brokerage.


1 lac profit from syrma will go in to this,
I'll begin the experiment.
Maintain an excel sheet for everyday trade
Will post excel sheet on 30th September.
Will use compounding with full amount for everyday trade.
Method of trade, full amount swing, short, intraday buy. No holdings.
Target 111600/-. 22 trading sessions.

*Update, compounding data is incorrect..

Final value - 3.31 rs
After stcg - 2.964 rs...this is bonkers .
Profit - 1.964 rs....
Return - 196.4 %

Few red flags
Opportunity to daily utilise the full capital may not exist or rather may not be daily known.
Daily trends are harder to predict.
A computer can do this better but it's not doing it coz probably it is not that easy.
U need luck more than analytical skills that too on more than 200 days annually.
I m no expert though.
Best wishes for the experiment.

🤟

@ Ou Ai
I appreciate your thoughts and experience. The term " generalisation " does not hold good in the parlance of share trading as much as each individual item is independent and incidental and thereby possess a zero co- relation coefficient with another trade and final result at the end of a period will take a shape from various unseen factors mentioned by you coupled with individual' s proficiency and mental ability.
Such a calculation is nothing but building a castle in the air as it looks at the first sight. However, I shall appreciate efforts of @ Monster and eagerly wait for his September result.
By the by, your comment ' History has shown that a trader does not make as much wealth as a long term investor ' - itself is to the contray of projection of @ Monster but a good topic for discussion which you may start with your vital experience to be developed and enriched by other learned members.
Thanks

@Monster Zero, it will be very interesting to see your experiment. I am sure you have guts, foresight and ability to succeed in your venture. If you are successful, and I am sure, you will, then please enroll me as your first student to learn this unique technique. Wishing you all the best and every success.

Sure...why not! ..... it's learning experience for me...and I hope the learning curve goes parabolic.

MsCI rebalacing was today due to which 4000 + cr buyng fig

monster ji I thik after a small dip 19k can be achived...dip can be seen upto 16800 levels.. again bounce bck to 18k...all this can be seen in sep 2022 .....sep may be gona very volatile month

Today I bought 17500 pe September expiry...aapke muh me ghee shakkar

I bought Bnaknifty 40000 PE 😜

monster ji i think Indian markets sustaining at 17800 is also a winning situation Compared to US market..where inflation ,fed, and US dolar.index at its peek...in that situation Indian markts.wont sustain at 16k but its now at. 17800...

@Big Bull..kabhi kabhi Ghana pedh bhi andar se khokla hota hai.
17800 is just 50 stocks out of 1300+.....most stocks are still @52 week low.