Hi Aniket ji. As on 31.12.2020, public shareholding upto 2 lac is 21 crore whereas Total shares reserved for Retail in Buyback 2021 is 13Crore x15% = 1.95 crore only. Plz explain how AR =50% when ER is only 10%. If Half of 21 crore tenders shares in buyback AR should be 20% at max it can go to 30-32%
183.9. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
January 27, 2021 5:50:56 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
AGGARWAL Ji,
It is based on assumption that promoters (The Govt of India) holding 51.5% equity will not participate in Buyback. In 2018 also, Nalco was bought back it''s only 3.48% equity ( this time it''s 6.48% ) and AR was more than 50%
Thanks.
183.10. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
January 27, 2021 7:09:36 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Sorry, actually this time it''s 6.98 % equity buyback.
Aniket sir stove craft apply karna chahiye ya nahi ??
Negative to list nahi hoga na ??
183.12. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
January 27, 2021 8:28:16 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Surya pratap singh rajawat Ji, In stove craft, some listing gain may be there, but for me it''s clear avoid. Chances of negative listing is also about 50%.
Aniket Ji, Individual shareholding in NALCO as per yesterday board meeting record 15.14, this may also include many HNI holding. HUF 0.72, this may also contain below 2 lac category.
Please explain what exactly a buyback mean.. Like if I buy 1000 shares of either Nalco or NIIT then will I be able to sell all 1000 on buyback? Please!
@AniketIAF sir for maximum buyback acceptance of share. Which one is advisable? 1. BUYING 500 SHARES FROM ONE DMAT A/C 2. BUYING 100 FROM FIVE DMAT A/C. PLEASE REPLY 🙏🙏🙏
183.31. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
January 28, 2021 4:31:34 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
JethaLal ji,
Buyback of share is always on proportional basic. So, it''s always better to buy shares in one a/c in stead of multiple accounts. But, Buy share upto 2 Lakh rupees only and review it before record date. Increase or decrease your holding so that it''s value will not cross 2 Lakh on record date , that is required for retail category eligiblity.
Please explain what exactly a buyback mean.. Like if I buy 1000 shares of either Nalco or NIIT today then will I be able to sell all 1000 on buyback? Please reply!
@vjVipul Bro in buyback you can tender all your shares but company accepted according to others share holders shares tendered in buyback, normally 20 to 100% shares are accepted by company accordingly. Try your luck...
Added 750 between 46 to 47, I will add more if further going down.
Thanks Aniket
183.38. Ou Ai| Link| Bookmark|
January 29, 2021 1:16:29 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
Government is not bale to meet set divestment target with it''s inability to divest IDBI Bank , BPCL and LIC IPO. Also many PSUs are unable to dole out high dividends. So they are resorting to buyback route. Government is fully participating in the buyback as seen in NTPC, NMDC and soon EIL. Therefore the AR was much less than earlier expected 50% in NTPC. In NMDC many investors stayed away from participating as the price of 104 was less than market price, but, government fully participated to garner the amount.
In Nalco, Government stake is 51.2% and buyback is of 6.72% of capital. Assuming all shareholders offer and accepted , government stake remain same at 51.2%. With15% reserved for small shareholders, other investors including government will be able to offer and get acceptance at lesser in proportion to the buy back of 6.72% . This will increase the government stake marginally .
So with buyback price remaining 20% higher than market price, and very purpose of this buy back to benefit divestment target, Government will fully participate. In this case AR may be around 30%.
Regardless, post buy back, balance quantity at lower holding price, Nalco is a good share to hold with metal prices and commodity stocks going up in this upcycle.
Aniket Ji and Rafid The total number of shares held by individuals (up to Rs 2 lakh) is 9,82,27,646 as per the figures available on BSE. if all this are bided, then only AR will come down other wise AR % will be ok. More over the bids of Zerodha will be submitted on 4 Feb, that also to be considered in calculation.
As per info available on NSE the total shares available is 6 crores plus, where as now the total bids made by individual investor is around 73 lakhs.
The link is below where you can find the details
https://www1.nseindia.com/live_market
Also does BSE have a link to which we can see how much shares were bid for the buy back
183.44. Ou Ai| Link| Bookmark|
January 30, 2021 6:54:37 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
Nalco buyback record date is on 8th Feb. Thereafter , NALCO has to submit draft letter of offer , followed by final letter of offer to SEBI and get approval. Then offer opens. This will take about a months time and buy back likely to open in Feb end to March beginning.
How anyone can bid for buyback when it is not yet open?
Ou Ai, in Nalco, Eil, Gail, government''s holding is at border near to 50%. So govt will play safe and wait till last day to see the buyback subscription to tender its shares for these buybacks..
183.47. Ou Ai| Link| Bookmark|
January 31, 2021 1:52:17 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
Please read my previous explanation. In Nalco government will submit fully as they did in all previous buy backs like NTPC,NMDC, even if holding is border case like in NALCO at 51.2%. Shareholders above 2 lakh value (includes government) can submit only 85% of 6.72 % buyback. Therefore their holding marginally increases. So no need to play safe. Same with others like GAIL and EIL.
183.48. Ou Ai| Link| Bookmark|
January 31, 2021 1:54:25 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
Just to inform bought 2500 Nalco at 46.80. Will add more after budget and market movement.
Ou Ai, if you see Eil buy back is open from 22 Jan, buy back tenders have come mostly from retails as of now. Govt yet to tender their shares. I am only telling they will tender their share towards last day of buyback as it''s holding % is at border near to 50%...
183.50. Ou Ai| Link| Bookmark|
February 2, 2021 6:52:16 AM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
You have a point amit K Singh. This is true if GOI is also allowed to tender over and above their entitlement and assuming others tender for lot less. Currently as per the offer ER is 118:860 for small investors and about 93 for the other categories. So as you said near border of 50% is advantage other investors
Aniketiaf sir I purchased MPS at 370 after your recommendation in September. Today it crossed 450. Should I book profit or hold, reply urgently sir. Thank you in advance sir
183.52. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
February 2, 2021 2:17:44 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Anurup ji,
MPS CMP is 486. More than 30% profit in 5 months should be considered as very good return. Profit can be booked.
Rafid ji, Total 11.65 Crore shares tendered in buyback out of the buyback size of 6.99 Crore. Not even two times. In individual category 2.49 Crore share tendered. Hopefully 50% plus will be AR. Aniket Ji, please provide your valuable suggestion on this.
183.55. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
February 6, 2021 7:33:05 AM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Aniketiaf sir All your prediction towards Acceptance Ratio in Buyback becomes accurate. Earlier you r the most deserving person for the tag of "IPO Guru", now u r deserving the Tag of "Buyback Guru" also.
Dear aniket sir Please let me know Which buyback shares company now available and best one to apply Also which ipo current ones to apply Thank you in advance U r very humble kind and good nature person God bless u
Aniket ji, can you please enlighten regarding buyback of shares of Freshtrop fruits? Buyback price is Rs.90/-and CMP is Rs.79/-. Max. shares of buyback are 7.5 lakhs. (6.73% of the existing paid up capital) Buyback will be through open market route. Waiting for your guidance in this regard. Thank you very much.
178.1. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
January 29, 2021 4:25:07 AM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Buyback is by open market route not by tender. Hence no charm left. Thanks.
Every boarder is free to express their views and also recommend a specific response. It is up to individuals to decide whether they should accept or reject that recommendation.
This forum is not a paid advisory service but a public forum where each individual is free to express their opinion.
There are all kinds of people on Public forums...and some also may be paid influencers. There are numerous people on the forum who have become "Guru" or "expert" just by posting Grey market premium 50 to 100 times in one IPO so it is up to individuals to decide whom they want to follow and whom they want to ignore.
It is not prudent to ask an admin to kick someone out of the forum just because that person is not aligned with someone''s thinking. If anyone doesn''t like someone''s comment just keep ignoring it. Gradually that person will stop posting irrelevant information without any unnecessary discussion.
Request everyone to avoid unnecessary arguments, abusive language, and fights.
176. Faizan| Link| Bookmark|
January 28, 2021 10:37:51 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Funny to see all the fights between forum members. Firstly some are of opinion that financials and profit are falsely shown spiked. My opinion is we cannot know this now, we can only speculate. Real thing we will know only in coming quarters/years. Secondly, people predicting QIB/NII figures will be low. It surprised me too, the final subscription figures. With current subscription figures it may happen that it will list in premium. Thirdly, which most important, is listing time. Listing is few days after budget. My experience is market goes down for sometime after budget. So market is in downward mood listing may be in discount. (If a downward mood market can ruin SBI cards listing, a slight downward can also ruin StoveCraft)
All in all, this IPO is very tricky. Right now we cannot say anything. Like a good movie, wait for climax.
[Disclaimer - 1. My opinions are my opinions only, and could be wrong. 2. Not applied, due to no capital ]
QIB is arond 5 times, retail is already more than 20 times. So the ipo is safe now. One can apply for listing gain only, should exit on listing day if allotted. Also allotment chance for retail is very very low.
Please don''t listen to thd people asking to withdraw as they have vested interest, if you withdraw allotment chance will increase for others... if they are not applying why they bothers about others?
Those writing are saving retailer. Agar phas gaye toh fi and HNI ki fatal Nahi padega as hardly any subscription from them. Think why subscription is too low from them .
Boss, QIB is more than 7 times now.. also please do not misguide others if you are not 100% sure.. I remember you were promoting angel broking and it listed in discount ..
Amit jis bande be gland pharma ke subscription low dekhkar Kaha tha risky. Also he said not to apply burger kibg. Both give excellent returns to investor Even angel doing well post listing. Don''t make me laugh. Everyone knows what u r and ur all wrong analysis. Amit K singh (Nov 11, 2020 11:39:27 AM) For: Gland Pharma Limited
Nileshk when did I say j have withdrawn application. Plz show proof. Are you drunk . Chittorgarh team plz check these fake I''d been created by arunarun to instigate fights. I have full rights to speak about bad fundamentals about the company . U don''t even have much views or liking. U r not even worth replying
For such like fake name with fake id you people spreading negativity here, if you didnt applying in this IPO then please did not give any ultra negative suggestions like withdrawn application in this forum.
174.11. MehulStk| Link| Bookmark|
January 28, 2021 4:20:07 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
@nileshkp Plz don''t fight guys we all are here to help each other to take right decisions, And @IPOANALYSIS Never post about asking people to withdrawing the application, It was @Regulagedda Ambica Prasad, Plz check the post history.
136. IPOANALYSISI Like It. 7|Report Abuse|Jan 27, 2021 14:56
IPO Guru IPO Guru (1700+ Posts, 1300+ Likes) Withdraw anyone who by mistake applied . Stock to definitely list at huge discount now. It has 300 Cr debt, was loss making and cooked financial to come and collect money, many legal cases against them. Does not even deserve 100 rs price value for such issue.
134. IPOANALYSISI Like It. |Report Abuse|Jan 28, 2021 09:26
IPO Guru IPO Guru (1700+ Posts, 1300+ Likes) Hurry. Cancel application immediately. Secondary market mein sale hai why go for expensive primary market stock. Stovecraft have multiple criminal and civil case, loss making previous yes, cooked financial ,even after IPO debt is huge.
@MehulStkI I AGREE THAT EVERYONE HAS RIGHT TO EXPRESS HIS VIEWS, YOU CAN DISAGREE WITH OTHERS VIEW, BUT ONE SHOULD NOT TRY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS IF YOU NOT AGREE WITH THEM, BUT @IPOANALYSIS ALWAYS TRYING TO CRITICIZE OTHERS WHO DONT AGREE WITH HIS VIEWS
174.13. MehulStk| Link| Bookmark|
January 28, 2021 6:27:15 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
@stocktrade Yes your are right, Sorry I did''t see this posts before commenting.
NileshKP just wait as few days. Left for listing . Let''s see what happens with oversubscription of retailer. gland pharma not even got subscribed in retail and we all know the outcome. Let''s see who is correct whether fundamentals wins or fake premium.
I am very much here and there is nothing great on listing. Out of 20 only 1 got allotment. Listing gain is 15 pc. HNI not making profit. Market has risen a d some stocks are up so much between these 7 days. How many shares u got in allotment .
174.20. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
February 5, 2021 11:17:49 PM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
@ipoanalysis When issue gets subscribes 1 time in application wise then best allotment is only one lot. Admit you read it wrong and close it Don''t justify by asking question that how many shares one got on allotment
Arunarun I think it understanding of English is wrong. First admit that your analysis on Gland pharma is wrong which u asked to not subscribe and asked to buy Antony which is damp squib. You have been proved wrong multiple times. Now coming to Stovekraft market has risen so much and in bull.market it is nothing great with 15 pc return even with this subscription in retail . Even secondary market stocks are giving better return without any lottery.i hope that makes some sense to you
Ipoanalysis sir, please admit your mistakes in analysis and move on... you should have considered all these factors (secondary market, budget, etc) when you are doing analysis and giving recommendations, and asking people to withdraw their applications..
My earnest prayer to the forum members that everyone is to be tolerant and have patience. Kindly keep the decency and decorum of the forum by keeping aside your egos and personal revengeful attitudes. As the situation is creating unhealthy atmosphere, I have intervened.Kindly excuse me, if my feelings have caused any inconvenience to anyone. In fact every IPO Guru, every IPO Mentor and some others are contributing so much helpful information to the forum with their valuable knowledge and experiences. I bow down to each and every such contribution which is a kind gesture of their hard working and lust to help. We are all indebted and fortunate to have such kind hearted ones. Once again thank you all and pray to continue to help the forum.
Amitk Singh sir,plz admit your mistake that you were wrong in Gland Pharma . with confirmed allotment it is still more than 50 pc and still going up. Nothing wrong in accepting u went completely wrong in Gland Amit K singh (Nov 11, 2020 11:39:27 AM) For: Gland Pharma Limited
Both Gland Pharma and Burger king rewarded both listing gain as well as continued rally. Please accept your mistake in these as nothing wrong that you want wrong multiple time and Burger king and Gland are great investment still. Rather Stovekraft is operator play but Gland and burger king are fundamentals stocks.plz don''t give wrong suggestion amit K singh (Dec 18, 2020 9:31:14 AM) For: Burger King India Limited
Burger King is pure operator''s game. Don''t get into these these kind of stocks. Many operators are here in this forum in disguise.. be cautious..
Ipoanalysis sir, Burger King listed on 14 dec. The message I posted on 18 Dec cautioning people not to get in to burger King as its pure operator''s play. Hope you understand this basic thing...
Reg Gland pharma, I have my own ethics. I mostly avoid ESG shares. If someone give me Gland(chinese connections), ITC(tobacco), Vedanta(serious human rights violations in niyamgiri hills) ,etc... shares at 10rs, I will not purchase those. Please see my messages posted in Gland pharma for more details...
AmIt K Singh. There is a saying some people need to be given their own medicine which I did Anyway if u think Burger King which is the biggest chain of burgers in the world and your personal thinking of Gland which is another debt free super company. Your thinking of stovecraft which Infact is nothing fundamental but pure operator play. GOd help u if u think like that as Infact it''s vice versa
AmitK Singh mark my words. In future GLand And BUrger are going to double in 1-2 years time frame whereas Stovekraft will underperform.when operator will be out of stovekraft.
Boss, people were purchasing Burger King at 200+, I was only cautioning them not to purchase from secondary market after it is listed... I never told to avoid the ipo... please read it correctly before commenting...
As said burger king will give us excellent returns. Your message came on day of listing which price was 110. I myself got shares at that price. Please go and check properly. Anyhow what is wrong with Gland which is debt free and highest growth pharma whereas what is good in Stovekraft which has huge debt and cooked financial before IPO
There is nothing wrong in gland''s financials. But you enjoy Corona from gland pharma promoter''s country and junk food from burger King. I just had my healthy lunch khichdi cooked in my pegion pressure cooker..
The stovekraft ipo is done and dusted for me. It''s for secondary market to take it forward. I will not respond to any more discussion on this subject. Thanks ..
Lol. So ideally if I don''t like burger or junk food then dominos,MacDonald and burger king are bad stock similarly Gland pharma u don''t like becoz of Chinese investment but are happy to use Chinese mobile phone from which you are typing . I rest my case.