Itne avoid call ke baad bhi retail section aaj aadha aur kal tak pura bhar jayega..isme waise naye retailers bhi hoge jo 20-25 ke age group me honge aur father ke paise se trading karte hoge..π Jhunjhunwala ki suno aur pitaji ka paisa mat dubao..
Now investors are smarter ...if they want to buy, then they will buy after listing at mouth water price, like they got in cashback share....janta aab hosiyar ho gayi he, like chalak lombdi..
Star Health and Allied Insurance Company - For those who care beyond the GMP (based on FY21 consolidated financials & post-money (top end of the price band)):
M-Cap: ~INR 518 bn (~INR 51,800 cr) Solvency Ratio: 2.5x P / E (X): NA
Addressing a few points that have come up in the various discussions on this Company: 1. RJ is an investor - For me it doesn''t matter; for every Nazara and Titan that he has in his portfolio he also has/had a Mandhana Industries, JP Associates, A2Z Infra. So frankly, his presence doesn''t make or break the investment case for me. 2. Westbridge as an investor - An aggressive (when it comes to exiting their portfolio companies) Private Equity fund and their last portfolio company to go public was Aptus Value Housing Finance with an underwhelming listing of a dearly priced IPO. It has sunk further since listing though the quality of the business is good but simply overpriced. Something to think about when thinking of applying in Star Health for the long run. 3. Good Company, Good Management, Good Business, Expensive Pricing even if Omicron wasn''t around, Bad Timing - Essentially, this is a great business for the long term if one is of the view that events like COVID will happen only once every 25/50 years. The business has shown great growth and profits prior to COVID and in the next 2/3 years once the threat of COVID is normalized, I''d expect them to come back to great profitability. 4. They are raising INR 20 bn in fresh money and about INR 52.5 bn is going to selling shareholders, for a total issue size of INR 72.5 bn. Is this the best mix that their battery of 12 merchant bankers could advise them on? Especially, considering that the business is coming out of COVID even if the current Omicron threat is ignored? Wouldn''t it have been better to increase the primary component to make the business healthier or if not that then reduce the amount from selling shareholders or better still reduce the IPO pricing and ask selling shareholders to sell when the business sees better times? The solvency ratio dropped to 1.52x in Sept''21 against the regulatory minimum threshold of 1.5x as per IRDAI - just on the brink of non-compliance (they were non-compliant and as per risks in the RHP had gone below 1.5x even in Sept''18 with IRDAI denying their request for leniency (yep, they actually asked for permission to be non-compliant) resulting in them raising an emergency INR 3.5 bn - poor judgment by management and financial investors who forced the business to the brink!). Even after the INR 20 bn fresh infusion if will go to 2.5x and that is without any deterioration due to Omicron. What is Omicron is worse than we all imagine? If not, I''ll just end up being a naysayer and the business would have survived having taken a very risky call. If yes, then this business will see very very tough times. Either ways, the 12 merchant banker, prolific investors like RJ & Westbridge could have structured the issue better than to have just INR 20 bn in fresh capital and INR 52.5 bn in capital to selling shareholders. For me this is quite simply dumping the risk onto the investors who come in the IPO. Also, existing investor will continue to be dominant shareholders even after the IPO and given their poor decisions of the past, I''m not inspired!
All in all, I''m pretty sure that this IPO will get a good response from the public markets but would I invest a single dime in it? No! Forget HNI, not even in retail - not even for the thrill! But do I think the business is bad? No, its a great business to be held for the long term when perhaps COVID risks are a little further behind and there is some price discovery after IPO. For now, I''m better off paying my policy premium (yes, I''m a customer) to them as my humble contribution to this business rather than applying in the IPO and becoming a shareholder. But depending on the general COVID/Omicron developments and the post listing scenario, I will definitely track it and decide when it makes sense for me to buy into the business. But the IPO is a definitive avoid for me. Keep minting!
@neolongus let''s make this thread famous for retailers good great exactly my thoughts in exact words i m on it i m also leaving it just like PAYTM did (was not a bad co. will be a good co. but currently high price let the co. firms, big players to buy, we will enter when right time come for co. eg: 1200-1300 rs or above 2150 -2300 rs )
RETAILERS DON''T FILL THIS KIND OF EXPENSIVE IPO''S YOU HAVE ONLY FEW MONEY/LOT''S MONEY Don''t be trapped/stuck in this save for better ipo''s , ACNCHOR INVESTORS, HNI''S & BIG PLAYERS HAVE TOO MUCH MONEY let them invest
131.5. NeoLongus| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 9:49:52 AM
IPO Mentor (700+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
@Mr. Singhania - No brownie points for noticing that in less than 1 hour of opening, retail is already over 1/4th subscribed. Retail has 10% quota in this 7200 cr IPO. Crazy times! Fundamental analysis has no meaning in these times!
131.6. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 9:58:19 AM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
Share market is future oriented and guided by sentiments and gut feeling rather than analysis and charts driven.
Many would disagree but look people will go for star health and they may even get good results - which you, me and many people are unable to see.
131.7. NeoLongus| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 10:14:34 AM
IPO Mentor (700+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
@K.Atar - Completely agreed...MARKET IS BOSS! We all are forced to eat humble pie far too often! Takes a while...years if not months for fundamentals to reflect without sentiments always reigning supreme! Quite a task to stick to fundamentals and invest and not be emotionally led...moreso in these times!
I think current solvency ratio is 1.52x, not 2.5x, it''s from previous to previous quarter, nd IRDAI regulation limit is 1.5x, last time also they haven''t maintained same ratio, but if IPO funds are not coming then they have to raise money to maintain that ratio.
becuase of 2000cr from IPO will be used for solvency ratio & other working capital, I feel they are taking opportunity of this bull market, by selling shares as IPO(70% around is OFS i.e 5200cr)
131.10. Eklavya| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 11:12:11 AM
IPO Mentor (700+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
You write so well, as usual....NeoLongus. Nicely explained.
131.11. π₯ MOG π₯| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 12:54:19 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@Neolongus Well explained! Retail subscription has already gone beyond 50% in this IPO frenzy............Retailers will never learn despite the recent Paytm''s listing.
@neolongus let them fill this like paytm and after that they will come and say i only get that share which lists in discountππ
i agree others to market is supreme it can give any retuirns i think max it can give returns like policy bazar which i can afford to loose rather than losing own money
Thanks @Mog / @Eklavya - Out of academic interest and curiosity would love to get the perspective of retail investors who apply on the 1st day...irrespective of whoever is proven right or wrong when the stock lists...it would be good to get their mindset coz there are a very large number of folks out there who seem to think contrary to us! Also hoping that they all make and we all, make money, sustainably! Ultimately, MARKET IS BOSS!
@BKS - Agreed...Dad always taught me when I was young...MONEY SAVED IS MONEY EARNED! Important to control greed and be judicious and not put principal at undue risk for meagre gains.
FEW WORDS...GOOD SENSE HAS PREVAILED amongst those who didn''t apply at these exorbitant valuations! But unlikely that these learnings will last and very soon we will be back to momentum based investing in IPOs versus value investing!
131.16. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
December 2, 2021 7:05:05 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
@Neo Sir,
Very accurate and to the point analysis of the SH ipo, you got the nerve of the matter, many would have taken heed and stayed away from greed show.
From the beginning there was nothing on the table for common investors.
@NeoLongus sir, Very good indepth analysis, written much earlier to the IPO dates. People who read this would have taken a right decision. Otherwise this is also a known name like Paytm and would get struck. Now those invested in this IPO has to remain for long term or book losses.
Nice thread. I avoided it but I like this business too. I will definitely add at 30 or 40% discount. Mean while I added more ICICI Lombard though not comparable directly.
130. sahab| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 10:23:16 AM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
Flop show beginning today..... assume very flop ipo of the year...
128. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 10:13:31 AM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
Retail investors bid for 23 percent of their reserved portion, while the portion set aside for employees was yet to be subscribed.
Non-institutional investors subscribed for 11,184 shares of their reserved portion, while qualified institutional buyers are yet to put in their bids for the offer.
Very big swing happening in the market at present and it is high risk to get involved in these IPO. The financials stated here also not much impressive. Read RHP clearly before investing.
People already have burnt their hands in Paytm IPO, be cautious applying for this IPO,. I understand these are high valued. GMP is also not very impressive.
For those who want to test if they are applying properly in IPOs this is the right kind of IPO...a sure shot allotment looks like on the cards...vanishing gmp, weak secondary markets and couple of other clashing ipos with heavy gmps may help ensure a confirm allotment for all valid applications...
Note: IPO investments are subject to market risks...it will all depend on final day subscription...
122. The Nest| Link| Bookmark|
November 27, 2021 9:19:56 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
Anand Rathi 2 to 6 Dec 666 cr size Price Band 550 Retail 35%
122.1. The Nest| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2021 7:33:48 AM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)