Capital Market Review:
CM RATING 46/100
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Promoted by Dilip Modi of the B K Modi group, Spice Communications provides cellular services in Punjab and Karnataka. Telekom Malaysia will hold a 39.2% equity stake post-issue compared with 40.8% of the Modi group. The company was the second largest cellular services provider in Punjab and the fifth largest cellular services provider in Karnataka, measured by the total number of subscribers with a combined market share of 14.49% in these two states (Punjab: 23.9% and Karnataka: 7.5%) end March 2007. The subscriber base was 3 million (2.05 million in Punjab and 0.95 million in Karnataka) with network coverage of 537 towns in Punjab, covering approximately 55% of the state population, and 229 towns in Karnataka, covering 33% of the state population end May 2007.
Spice Communications has pending applications for licences to provide cellular services in additional 21 circles throughout India. The company was recently awarded a national long distance (NLD) licence and international long distance (ILD) licence by the Department of Telecommunications and it intends to initially set up base infrastructure for a capacity of 30 million minutes per month across 15 locations in India.
The current initial public offering (IPO) is to raise Rs 464 crore at the lower band (Rs 41) and Rs 520 crore at the upper band (Rs 46). The net proceeds from the issue are to be used for part repayment of long-term debt, for payment of NLD and ILD licence fee, for meeting related capital expenditures to set up base infrastructure for NLD/ILD amounting to Rs 63.60 crore, for paying vendor(s) for network equipment and other capital expenditure amounting to Rs 177.63 crore, and for general corporate purpose and public issue expenses. Spice Communications has issued 2.49 crore of equity shares at a price of Rs 45 to certain investors pre-IPO and raised Rs 111.93 crore.
Strengths
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1. Has received NLD and ILD licences and proposes to offer data transmission services and voice transmission for calls originating and terminating on most of India’s and global telecom networks. It will be basically taking capacity on lease rather than setting up its own network. This will improve the operating profit margin.
2. One of the objects of the issue is to repay part of debt, which is likely to reduce the interest burden.
3. The Indian telecom industry is one of the fastest growing in the world adding nearly six million subscribers a month. The mobile subscribers base is estimated to increase to approx. 210 million by the year ending March 2008 (FY 2008), from the current level of 167.44 million subscribers end April 2007. Factors like falling handset costs, attractive tariffs and extensive reach have reduced the entry barriers for new subscribers and, thus, expanded the markets available to telecommunication service providers. The presence in the country’s richest state, Punjab, is likely to translate into volume growth.
Weaknesses
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1. In the absence of pan-India presence like other integrated operators, unable to provide seamless roaming services and is forced to share its revenue with other operators with whom it has roaming arrangement for its subscribers. Though licences in other circles have been sought, the current state of financials will hamper expansion in other circles in a major way in foreseeable future.
2. Of the last five completed financial years, there were net losses in three years on account of low operating profit margin compared with the industry, high interest and depreciation. Losses have been incurred even in FY 2007. On account of continuous losses, the net worth has eroded. Accumulated losses stand at Rs 684 core (higher than the current issue size of around Rs 500 crore).
3. Being a regional service provider, there is significant competition from larger integrated players with pan-India presence and greater financial, technical and marketing resources. In the past, key corporate clients were lost, particularly in Karnataka, primarily due to lack of coverage in certain geographic areas. Not been able to sustain its first mover advantage in both the states it operates.
4. The Modi group’s track record is not encouraging.
Valuation
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Spice Communication has made net losses in the six months ended December 2006 and year ended June 2006. However, it has been making profit at the cash level. The company will not be listed on NSE as it does not meet the financial track record prescribed by NSE for new listings.
At the price band of Rs 41 - Rs 46, the EV/EBITDA works out to 20.9 – 22.8, respectively. While Bharti Airtel, the largest integrated player in the sector with a pan-India presence in GSM (in all 23 circles), trades at EV/EBITDA of 21.5, and Reliance Communication, with CDMA presence in 21 out of 23 circles and GSM presence in eight circles constituting a pan-India presence in all the 23 circles, is trading at EV/EBITDA of 18.4. Idea Cellular, with operations in 11 circles, trades at EV/EBITDA of 22.6.
On the basis of FY 2007 consolidated revenue, the market capitalisation to sales works out to 8.5 for Bharti Airtel, 7.3 for Reliance Communication, 7 for Idea Cellular, and 3.4 for Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra). It is 3.7-4.1 for Spice Communications. The EV per wireless subscriber for Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communication and Idea Cellular is about Rs 41102, Rs 35382 and Rs 23434, respectively. For Spice Communication, it is Rs 13887 – Rs 15113. But one should also factor in that Spice Communications is operating in only two circles and has a low subscriber base/market share.
The blended average revenue per user (ARPU) of Spice Communication stood at about Rs 370 in the six months ended December 2006 against Rs 427 for Bharti Airtel, Rs 338 for Idea cellular and Rs 328 for Reliance Communication in the quarter ended December 2006.
Spice Communication is one of the suitable candidates for takeover. Earlier attempts have reportedly failed due to pricing issues. The company is not a growth story as it is neither capable of growing organically nor inorganically in a significant way. Ultimately, it will have to get itself taken over by a strong player. That’s the only thing that can add spice to its share price.
Zerodha (Trading Account)
RHP
