If market is stable or rises from today till listing we can expect min 10% listing gain. Only worry is market should NOT be down by more than 5% at the time of listing.
My reasons are as below:- 1. There will be lot of demand (more buyers) but limited supply(less sellers) as it is not subscribed fully in HNI category and max 2 times in Retail category and lot of demand of QIB and FIIs. (Ideally HNIs and Retailers sell in panic or invest for just listing gains). QIB will be subscribed close to 4 times (already 3.5 times) 2. Very niche company catering to EV industry which is future. Sales are expected to rise by 5 times in next 5 years. Lot of headroom for this company to capture this. 3. Diversified niche offerings and caters to different geographies. 4. 75% revenue comes from exports mainly to USA, Europe and India. 5. Wonderful clients and long term relationships. 6. EV growth will be spectacular in India in next 5 yrs because of FAME subsidies. 7. It caters to all segments of road transport PV, CV, 2W, 3W. 8. Industry leading Operating profit i.e EBITDA, PAT, OPM, NIM 9. Industry leading ROE and ROCE. 10. Nil debt after IPO. As of now D/E is 0.3 which is very low. 11. Revenue has grown 36% CAGR from FY18-FY21. 12. EBITDA has grown 37% CAGR from FY18-21. 13. Adjusted PAT has grown 39% CAGR over same period. 14. Consistent R&D spend that helps to maintain technology edge. 15. Richly valued but for reasons mentioned above. 16. Remember Dmart, Dixon, Indiamart which are richly valued because of specific reasons.
@Arun, then is low QIB mean good price? You are telling about a company Chalet which is completely into a different sector and has not posted free cash flow. You are comparing Apples with oranges. High QIB with less HNI means good allotment and decent listing (might/not be spectacular). I can quote many examples of the same where HNI was not subscribed fully but had good QIB demand like HDFC Life, Gland Pharma.
Sona company has 75% QIB, 15% HNI, 10% Retail with overall IPO size of 5500 cr. In this Anchor investor placed almost 2500 cr. Rest 3000 cr, QIB portion is 2250 cr. It has been subscribed 3.5 times in QIB. So investment made by QIBs is close to 8000 cr plus Anchor investor which comes to 10500 cr. HNI is 450 cr and that go subscribed 0.4 times that comes to 180 cr. Retail portion is just 300 cr out of total 5500 cr and got fully subscribed. So QIB allotment will be close to 83%, HNI 7% and Retail 10%. If any selling pressure from retail and HNI which is 480 cr will be more than easily absorbed by QIB. So demand will be more than supply and as a result the stock might perform better than expectations. QIB wont''t be selling. In fact will be adding more as many QIB who did not get allotment will purchase from open market. Remember that Anchor investor lock-in period is for 1 month which means they can''t sell within 1 month of listing.
Note: I have explained in detail to give more clarity and is just based on demand and supply and quality of subscription. I have clearly described Fundamental analysis and future growth prospects of the company in my earlier posts in this forum. Anchor list is rock solid and reputed institutions have subscribed to it as this company will be leading Auto component manufacturer for EV in near future and strong earning growth and operational metrics.
98.4. Kishore S| Link| Bookmark|
June 17, 2021 1:27:03 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
I agree with Lokesh. Many people might not have applied this expecting they can purchase this on listing and might have used those funds for Shyam Metallics. All such people will pass negative comments on the listing of this which can be ignored. Fundamentals are good. Even if it goes down the issue price, i am ready to average it for decent returns in short term.
98.5. Kishore S| Link| Bookmark|
June 17, 2021 1:34:41 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
To add, the listing cannot be manipulated for this ipo but GMP.
Its a good share, though fully priced. It may stabilize below offer price on listing date. Buy more @ 80% of offer price to average it and sell it after 2 months at more than 150% of offer price.
Alloted 1 lot. I am planning to buy 49 more and make it 100, if it lists an discount. If It lists on gain, then I will sell 1 share to make it 50. I dont like odd number. 51 is like, I got it as gift or charity.
Allotment 6/8, Icici direct money debited. All the best for folks getting allotment. While this may not give listing gains, will be a solid addition to your portfolio within the next 3 months, cheers.
If you can hold for 3 to 5 yrs then it will give multibagger kind of returns as mainly it revenues caters to EV industry and it has strong global and Indian clients. If it is short term u can exit with 10 to 20% returns in 1 month.
I have applied 1 lot, my money debited and in my account status showing Bid Allotted. Please suggest me if anyone can i hold for long term. After MTAR this is my second IPO allotted.