SKS Microfinance Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 41)

SETU

AT 47 EPS AND PE OF 50, DONT WRITE MARKET PRICE OF 1380, ITS ...? U KNOW THE PRICE HA HA HA.

GIVE IT REASONABLE DISCOUNTING LIKE PVT BANKS LIKE HDFC AND ICICI MAKE PE AT 25 TIMES CY EARNINGS SO PRICE 1200.
DONT SAY WHY VALN OF HDFC WILL BE GIVEN TO SKS BOTH ARE TWO EXTREMES THEY ARE 2 DIF. BUSINESS I M NOT GIVING HDFC'S VALN.

Dear friends
In my post No.490, I got the numbers on Bajaj Corp terribly wrong. If, as I mentioned there, it gets subscribed around 10 times in retail, we will get about 15 shares, not 50. If the premium is about Rs. 50, then the returns will be Rs. 750 and if the premium is Rs. 100, it will fetch Rs. 1500. Please get the figures corrected. Sorry for the errors.

@ 514 DS

Current GMP is 75...but it is volatile between 68 to 80..so u have to phone and ask ur contact while buying just dont place blind order.....and i suggest u to buy whatever price till 80 cos you will pay just 30 that is after deducting 50 retail discount...I am expecting it to go to 100 sfter retail book closes on 2nd August..Thats when real activity starts.

SUBSITUTE ARSS WITH SKS IN MY LAST POST ITS MISTAKE IN TYPING

koi kehta he 300 per list hoga koi kehta he 600 per list hoga aur kuch log to RECORD BRAEKING PROFIT 3000 per list hoga kuch SKS = SUB KUCH SAAF bol rahe he pata nahi kya hoga apply kere yaa na kare...........

SKS FY 11 EPS COULD BE RS 50. SO AT 25 PE CURRENT YR EARNINIGS, PRICE COMES TO 1250, PRICE TO BOOK AT 5 TIMES.

IT WILL HAVE SCARCITY PREMIUM LIKE TALWALKERS JULIANT AND COX, KINDLY REVISIT THE VALN OF THESE 3 STOCKS AT WHICH THEY ARE TRADING FOR LAST 6 MONTHS. SKS ALSO CAN SUSTAIN MY TARGET OF 1050 ON LISTING IF NOT I M READY TO LOOSE MONEY, IF VALN WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE TO APPLY OR NOT IN AN IPO THEN WE MUST HAVE MISSED JUBLIANT, COX AND TALWALKERS AND OLD FOX EDUCOMP.

CAN ANYONE REMIND ME WHICH IS THE LAST OVERPRICED IPO THAT TRADING BELOW ITS OFFER PRICE EXCEPT REAL ESTATE IPO, AND THE REASON FOR ITS UNDERPERFORMANCE. HA HA HA U WILL NOT FIND ANY ONE WHICH HAD UNIQUE BUSINESS LIKE ARSS, IS IT RPOWER AR ANY OTHER POWER CO FOR THAT MATTER WE ALL KNOW THE REASON FOR UNDERPERFORMANCE THEY ARE THE SHELL CO AT IPO TIME. FCH THAT SMALL IPO AT 750 PRICE IT HAD PAT LOSS AT IPO TIME.

I WILL TAKE THE RISK AND GO FOR SKS NOW 65:35 IN FAVOUR OF SKS, JO HOGA DEKH LENGE!!!!

dear SETU JAIN kdly give us latest gmp of ..SKS..i m asking u because u said u r attached to grey mkt..thanks in advance

@506 Ram

GEM IPO Finder is correct....SKS is leader so it will command higher price....as you can see i have given earning estimates till 2014 according to that based on FY11 earnings of 47 and PE of 45-50 since it has scarcity premium attached to it....(just like jubiliant enjoyed)...expect a price of 1250-1380...on listing......beyond that is a strech.

Now i am happy that u noticed SE investments like other analysts and tv channels are now noticing.

I have 10000 shares of SE investments at a average price of Rs. 20 From Nov 2009 when price was Rs 250 i am buying.

It gave 5:1 stock split and 3:1 bonus and now giving 2:1 stock split..Now it is trading at 61...after stock split assuming this price it will trade at Rs. 30....

Now...at CMP it trades at PE of 40 since march 2010 eps was 1.5. However if you see FY11 expected revenues of 70 crores PAT and 200 crores Revenues estimated EPS comes out 4.8 PE. comes out to 15 so it can be 80 rs. in a months time.. SO you can invest in SE also at CMP...and it is less risky as % appreciation is more.....However going with industry leader should be right strategy so you should also apply for SKS micro

SKS MICRO... ME SAB KAHTE HAI K ACHHA GAIN MILEGA LIKIN ME KAHTA HU IS IPO ME GAIN NAHI MILEGA Q K NHPC, R.POWER, ETC ME SABHI LOG YAHI KAHTE THE OR JO HUWA WO SAB K SAMNE HAI,
NHPC OR R.POWER ABHI BHI ISSUE PRICE SE NICHE TREDE KAR RAHE HAI,
MERA YE MANNA HAI KI IS IPO KO AVOID KARO YA SELL KAR K PROFIT KAMAO.......
................THINK ABOUT IT......................

the total times retail subscription will be 2 times on conservative side and 3.5-4 times on maximum side...

So people who want 100 shares should apply for 300 shares at least with ASBA facility....to be on safe side at price of Rs. 985 therefore getting a costing of Rs. 935 per share

Accordding to INTELLCAP that publishes microfinance report every year.....MFI loan disbursments will be 135000 from current 45000 crore currently by 2014. SKS total loan disbursment is 4500 crores i.e. 10% of total MFI sector. Even if growing forward because of the huge base they maintain a market share of 5% that means by 2014 they will reach revenues of 6750 crores.

Assuming these figures and talking a conservative 70% CAGR growth for SKS instead of 100%. Following are earning and price estimates....

                  2009            2010            2011            2012            2013            2014
                                                                              
Total Loan Disbursements 265 495 990 1980      3375 6750
Net Profit             80 174 300 550 1000 1600
Earning Per Share       14 27 46 75       130 200
                                           PE @ Rs 985 per share       70 36 20 13       7.5      4.9

Now assuming such high growth we can atleast assume that in 2010 it will command 45 to 50 PE due to scarcity premium and 30 PE thereafter till 2014...on conservative estimates shown above.

Hence following are price targets per share that SKS would command: Market always discounts one forward earnings expectations in current prices.......
Rs. P.E. Forward P.E. @ 985

FY 2010-2011 1380 50
FY 2011-2012 2250 30 20
FY 2012-2013 3900 30 13
FY 2013-2014 6000 30 7.5

ALLOTMENT TO PRIVATE PARTIES AT 300
ALLOTMENT TO ISSUE AT 935
VERY HEAVY PREMIUM
I AM AFRAID THAT LISTING MAY BE AROUND AS LOW AS 300 ONLY.

THIS MEANS 2 TIME SUBSCRIPTION INVESTORS WILL GET 50 SHARES. LOSS OF RS. 635 PER SHARE. PER APPLICATION LOSS WILL BE AROUND 32000/-.

YEH TO SHREE GANESH JEWELLARY KA BHI BAAP HAI.

RAM

I HAVE HEARD ABOUT SE INVESTMENT BUT IT CANT BE COMPARED WITH SE INV.


NOW THE COMPARISION IS BETWEEN SKS AND BCORP:

SKS IS NOT A BAD CO AND NOT VERY VERY HIGHLY PRICED IPO, ITS MODERATELY HIGH PRICED. WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOLS TO JUDGE A FINANCIAL STOCK IS ITS "PRICE TO BOOK VALUE",SKS AT 985 WILL TRADE AT P/BV OF LESS THAN 4 TIMES IT WE COMPARE IT TO OTHER LISTED PEERS WE DONT FIND IT IN INDIA BUT GLOBALLY MF COS TRADES AT P/BV OF AROUND 7-8 TIMES.PE RATIO IS NOT THE CORRECT TOOLS TO JUDGE A FINANCIAL STOCK AND THAT TOO FOR A CO GROWING AT 100%, IT WILL BE A "MIRAGE TOOLS". SO ITS P/BV LEAVES AMPLE HEADROOM TO APPRICIATE POST LISTING FROM RS.985.MY LISTING TARGET WOULD BE RS 1050-1100 AND THAT IS A MODERATE EXPECTATION GIVEN ITS DISCOUNT AND GMP IF ONE INVESTS ONE LAC IN THIS IPO HE WILL EARN AROUND RS.5000 AS RETAIL WILL NOT BE SUBSCRIBED MORE THAN 2 TIMES.

WHEREAS BAJAJ CORP IS ALSO NOT " DOODH KA DHOOLA" THE PROMOTERS HAVE EATEN ITS ENTIRE RESERVES IN FORM OF DIVIDEND JUST BEFORE IPO MAKING IT A " KHALI DABBA CO" NO DOUBT IT ALSO HAS GOOD GROWTH, BUT FINANCIALY ITS NOT VERY SOUND CO.

YOU GUYS LOOK AT THE DRHP PAGE NO 7 AND 8 :
ITS NETWOTH AS ON 31/03/2009 WAS RS.51.5 CRORES BUT AS ON 30/12/2009 IS RS 26.1 CRORES.

FOR THE 9 MONTHS ENDED THEIR PAT WAS RS 56.1 CRORES BUT IN THAT PERIOD THE CO HAS PAID RS 81.8 CRORES AS DIVIDEND INCLUDIND CDT AND RS 5 CORES HAS BEEN CAPITALISED FOR BONUS SHARES.

ON NET BASIS THEIR NET WORTH WOULD HAVE BEEN RS 108 CRORES ( 51 +56 ) BUT ITS RS.26 CRORES THEY HAVE EATEN, THEY DONT WANT TO SHARE THE CREAM TO MINORITY NEW INVESTORS, THEY WANT TO SALE ONLY THE GROWTH OF THE CO NOT ITS FINANCIAL SOLIDARITY. THIS CO IS BIGGER CHOR THAN SKS ON VALN FRONT BUT PEOPLE ARE NOT CRYING HERE BECAUSE RETAIL PUBLIC IS REACT ONLY ON THOSE ISSUE WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED TO HIM NOT SUPRESSED FROM THEM.

HOPE I MADE TO UNDERSTAND THIS TWO COS TO OTHER FELLOW MEMBERS, SKS IS NOT THAT BAD CO IN COMPARISION TO BCORP THAT PEOPLE WILL SKIP SKS AND INVEST IN BCORP. I HAVE 40:60 RATIO FOR SKS: BCORP, I CANT LEAVE SKS FOR BCORP.

BCORP IS A SMALLER ISSUE SO ITS NEGATIVES CAN BE EASILY UPPRESSED AND CAN LIST HIGHER.

CRTICISM ON MY ABOVE POINTS ARE INVITED FROM FELLOW BOARDERS.

hi
GEM IPO FINDER
SKS Microfinance will be 2nd company listed in the arena of Micro Finance after SE Investment.

SE Investment was 5-6 bagger in Last 6-9 Months. If anyone Bought 100 Shares few months back, Now it will be 3,000 Shares Soon (After 3 Time Split/Bonus in last 5 months)

SKS Micro Finance will be listed with valuation of around 21 not cheap but SKS has Good Track record, Brand, Effective management and profitable business. Interesting to see how it will perform.

SKS Microfinance will be 2nd company listed in the arena of Micro Finance after SE Investment.
hi
GEM IPO FINDER
SE Investment was 5-6 bagger in Last 6-9 Months. If anyone Bought 100 Shares few months back, Now it will be 3,000 Shares Soon (After 3 Time Split/Bonus in last 5 months)

SKS Micro Finance will be listed with valuation of around 21 not cheap but SKS has Good Track record, Brand, Effective management and profitable business. Interesting to see how it will perform.

440 VOLTS KA AISA JHATAKA LAGEGA KI KOI DOBARA IPO MAIN NAHI LAGAYEGA. LISTING 600 KE AAS PASS HOGI AUR INVESTORS BARBAAD HO JAYENGE

SHARE WILL LIST MORE THAN 3000. BUMPER LISTING. RECORD BRAEKING PROFIT

ravi bangalore,

after the qib applicationx13times,
what's yr take for the reatil plz?
apply for full allotment?
thx
mary

I am a big fan of SP Tulsian, please dont blame him for wrong analysis of IPO.

Agreed that most of his recommedations are exactly wrong, but please not that "Err is Human".

another thing, is that we can make money if we just do exact oppsit of his recommendations.

DEAR SOM JI SOM,

ALRIGHT THAT THESE 20 PEOPLE ARE IN FAVOUR OF THE IPO, BUT ONE NAME AMONG THESE 20 IS GREAT ANALYST ME. SP TULSIAN.

THIS IS THE REASON WE SHOULD AVOID IT.

PLEASE CHECK LAT 20 RECOMMDENDATION OF THIS EXPERT SP TUSIAN, U WE UNDERSTAND THE WHOLE THING

BOLO TARA RA RA