Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 31)

GMP NOW RS 85-90 ON 28JULY 17 00 HRS

Hello Rajkumar

Facevalue 10rs

Opening 800-850rs

Whats the current kostak rate and GMP of SIS, I have some applications to sell. Can you give me your email id.

Good analysis gamble

great work gamble not like some who does not do any analysis just say apply

Excellent analysis, Gamble. PE forecast is superb

Reasonable analysis...its everyones decision to subscribe or not...but there should be some clear understanding why we are subscribing....thank you Gamble

Gamble Bhai thinking of buying tata motors dvr , Indian bank , Nalco .... Any views ??

Nalco imo not much upside, indian bk good buy in dip, dvr has good support near 250 range..can strt buying.

financial year 2017 NP margin It earned thin profits of 2% for FY17...... just for argument to make a EPS of 26 they need to increase the topline from 4577.12 cr. to 9000 cr that is 100% jump in top line which is way over the top.....

So bottom line improvement is not possible given the nature of it business so wafer thin margin will continue.....

In realty i think so could se max 20% increase NP....

Brinks world largest Security and cash handling company - 2019 targets includes revenue of $3.6 billion, operating profit of $400 million, adjusted ebitda of $560 million, earnings of $4.25 per share equates to 215 Million Net profit it is price at $75 BTW it has double in last one year given it growth prospects.


SIS EPS of 13 IMO fair value should have been aPE of 50 so issue price should have been Rs650 not 815

Currently the finance cost is 75 cr for FY17 which would come down to 48 cr by FY19 as the IPO proceeds as well internal accruals would be used to pay the debt (446.2cr as on 31/3/17). Even after funding for accruals debt can come down to 300 cr by FY19 end. My estimate is that EBITDA margins could improve 50-60 bps in 2 years and savings in interest would inflate PAT.

Thanks

Perfect analysis sir. In fact, i would wish there are not many people like you. More people who do not get the true picture is good for me, as in that case retail would get low subscription and i can get some allotment !!!!!

INVESCO AND RAKSHIT i hope u stay after the issue and contribute in other IPO we get many roadside romio (paid stooges) who disappear after the IPO and never comment on other IPOs after the issue is out
Invesco in my DCF i had accounted benefit from Finance cost but not consider 50 bps improvement in margins which is sizeable benefit upfront

my reworked DCF i get
Intrinsic Value        Rs 863.72
                  
Margin of Safety Rs 647.79

I Have also geen verre generous with growth rate i have kept first year growth at 40% and then 20% even with such number IMO the issue price is expensive.

Initial Cash Flow:       Rs 90,00,00,000.00                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      20%      15%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      7,31,59,035            Margin of Safety:      25%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      1,26,00,00,000       40%       Rs 1,14,54,54,545.45       
2      1,51,20,00,000       20%       Rs 1,24,95,86,776.86       
3      1,81,44,00,000       20%       Rs 1,36,31,85,574.76       
4      2,17,72,80,000       20%       Rs 1,48,71,11,536.10       
5      2,61,27,36,000       20%       Rs 1,62,23,03,493.92       
6      3,10,91,55,840       19%       Rs 1,75,50,37,416.15       
7      3,66,88,03,891       18%       Rs 1,88,26,76,500.97       
8      4,29,25,00,553       17%       Rs 2,00,24,83,187.39       
9      4,97,93,00,641       16%       Rs 2,11,17,09,543.07       
10      5,72,61,95,737       15%       Rs 2,20,76,96,340.48       
                        
                        
Terminal Year       Rs 6,01,25,05,524.17                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                   Rs 16,82,72,44,915.15       
                        
Terminal Value:                   Rs 46,36,16,23,150.05       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                   Rs 63,18,88,68,065.20       
                        
Number of Shares:                  7,31,59,035       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                   Rs 863.72       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                   Rs 647.79       


given the market liquidity one can apply with only 10% retail quota. However i am avoiding this IPO IMO it is full priced