Renu, One should compare any co in the similar space and then take call where does it stand. I never said it should be valued at par with Titan and rates below Titan on almost all the parameters including promoter's credibility , which should obvisouly be topmost criterion. However, it should not be valued at par with Gitanjali and Renaissance as well due to the reasons I mentioned in my previous note. Your fair valuation based on fundmental gives Shree Ganesh a PE of 5.5 which is below Gitanjali(PE 7.45) and close to Renassaince (which is 1/10 th of Shree Ganesh size)
again a wrong example comparing nmdc with shree ganesh jewellery. absolutely wrong. when iron ore prics are going up its positive for company. when rupee depreciating bad for jewellery section.
its listing onm 9th not far away i will show you how could easily get this stock easily available much below issue price. wait and watch
atleast dont compare with titan. Titan is a tata group company and it has excellent management. it was also owned by mr rakesh jhunjunwala. Even now everyone like to buy titan watch but have you heard of any brand of shree ganesh which people like to own. so stop comparing between those.
I would like everyone to check the balance sheet for this company first(EPS,ROE, ROCE , OPM , NPM ). and after that think what should be its fair price.
regarding listing gains...it is more sentiment and rumours rather than its fair valuation(e.g...Jubiliant food works and many more)
I am not not denying about your guess work on prices during listing or in the short term as it will be dependent on demand supply equation. I am only questioning about fair price of Rs 120 based on fundamentals. On quality parameters and balance sheet strengths, it is only below the market leader in this space - Titan, which is commanding a PE of 36. Rajesh exports is bigger in size , but have baffer thin margins. On fundamental basis it does not deserve similar valuation as Gitanjali or Renaissance owing to much better balance sheet strength, margins, cash flows and historical growth.
I am not convinced about your rationale. There is no point in comparing it with historical listings.
Plus I do not agree about your thoughts on Intrasoft. The revenue model of that company is really flawed. If you are from IT / Software you would understand that websites like 123greetings.com is not a sustainable mode of earning revenues for long time. So I just do not buy that growth story for Intrasoft.
Current markets are based more on sentiments than fundamentals ! Because going by fundamentals Shree Ganesh is a far better company than Intrasoft !
Coming back to listing of Shree Ganesh, I firmly disagree on your point that it is gonna touch 180. Even if it lists as discount, in long term the stock is gonna climb back. Anyways lets wait for some time and we shall have our answers
IF YOU CHECK ALL PAST HISTORY OF GEMS AND JEWELLERY IPOS THERE HAS NOT BEEN EVEN A SINGLE SHARE WHICH HAS LIST ABOVE ISSUE PRICE SO FORGOT ABOUT IT LISTING AT EVEN 1 RS PREMIUM BECAUSE IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A DISCOUNT.I THINK IT MIGHT SETTLE IN BETWEEN 180-210 IN FIRST FEW DAYS AFTER LISTING AND FROM THERE ON IT WILL TRY TO FIND ITS CORRECT PRICE.
DONT GO BY P/E AS GEMS AND JEWELLERY SECTION ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE AT LOW P/E WITH LITTLE INTERESET FROM F1. CHECK PRADEEP OVERSEAS ITS P/E MGHT BE LESS THAN 10 AND CHECK JUBILIANT EXCELLENT PERFORMER P/E WOULD BE 40+ BUT THE GROWTH STORY IS INTACT.
SHREE GANESH JEWELLERY WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS MARGIN IN COMING DAYS AND ALSO RUPEE APRECIATING IT WILL HAVE GREAT AFFECT ON ITS FINANCIAL SO IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY POSITIVE NEWS TO TAKE PRICE FORWARD ALL BUT NEGATIVE NEWS COMING ITS WAY RUPEE APPRECIATION,EXPORTS GETING LOW AND NOT MUCH INTEREST IN SUCH STORIES.
INFACT YOU WILL SEE INTRASOFT TECHNOLOGIES DOING VERY WELL ON OPENINIG BECAUSE THAT TYPE OF STOCKS ARE LIKED BY F11 IT WAS SMALL ISSUE ,INTERESTING STRY
AFTER LISTING OF FEW DAYS YOU WILL SEE SHREE GANESH JEWLLERY AT 180 SO WHY DID I BLOCKED MY MONY FOR 20 DAYS WHEN I CAN GET DISCOUNT OF 30%
Post issue, the company will be valued at 9.6 times its annualised H1 FY 10 earnings at the higher end of the prize band and 10 times at the lower end. Hence, the valuation is a tad higher compared to the P/E ratio of established players, such as Su-Raj Diamond and Gitanjali Gems in the range of 8-9 .5. The company operates in the niche handcrafted jewellery market and has demonstrated significant revenue growth. However, given the cyclic nature of the business, the concentrated exports revenues and the working capital requirement of the industry, the issue looks to be an attractive bet for investors with higher risk appetite
All in all, this is a very good company. I am sure listing would be stable. Even if it goes in discount, it is not gonna go down significantly. If you have the appetite buy it on dips and long term it is gonna give good profits
I do not know how people determine the fair value based on fundamental. Have you gone through Red Herring prospectus. Have you carefully studied the balance sheet ROE, ROCE , OPM , NPM and cash flow of this co and compared it with competitors. If you have done so , you would not say rs 140 as the fair value. I am not saying that it will have a great listing or it will not go down to rs 140 as price of stock in short term depends on supply and demand , however in the long term it should be driven by fundamentals.
Natarajan sell this immediately on listing as there is no scope or fundamental value in this company.
check pradeep overseas with subscription of 45 times and 100 crore issue is trading at 8% discount . shree ganesh jewellery with subscription of 4 times and 350 crore issue.it is not even a small issue which can be manipulated also.
exit at listing if you get anywhere near 240 rs this will drop to 140 which is fair value of stock
Ravi, Bangalore & Sreedhar I applied full form in Sri Ganesh and got 302 shares. I think I am caught in this. What strategy will you recommend to reduce losses in this (of course, I am not someone who holds long)? I will assure you whatever bad happens I will not say this happened only because of your advice.
SEBI cuts time between IPO close & listing to 12 days
The Indian market regulator, Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has reduced the time between IPO close and listing of equity shares to 12 days from earlier 22 days, reports CNBC-TV18.
SEBI said IPO close and listing timeline cut would be effective for issues on or after May 1.
Applications Supported By Blocked Amount (ASBA) will be modified to suit IPO close, listing timeline cut.