SBI Cards IPO - Issue Size / Price per Share
If Issue Size is Rs.8,500 Crs ... Then, Share Price is Rs.618/-
If Issue Size is Rs.9,000 Crs ... Then, Share Price is Rs.650/-
If Issue Size is Rs.9,500 Crs ... Then, Share Price is Rs.685/-
If Issue Size is Rs.10,000 Crs ... Then, Share Price is Rs.725/-
If Issue Size is Rs.10,400 Crs ... Then, Share Price is Rs.750/-
SBI Cards IPO - *Market's Current Estimates of oversubscription*:
RII = 30.00L Forms = 1.66X Applic. wise (Avg allotment of ~14.43 shares per lot)
NII = 175K Crs. = ~152.61X
SH = 125K Crs. = ~154.96X
Interest cost *@11.00%p.a.* for 7days = 130.37paise for 1X
Thus, for NII the costing = 152.61 X 130.37paise = Rs.198.96 per share (= GMP)
And, for RII the costing = 14.43 X 198.96 = Rs. ~2871/- (= Kostak)
Thus, for SH the costing = 155.96 X 130.37paise = Rs.202.03 per share (= GMP)
SBI Cards IPO - *GMP Estimated*
GMP 200 +/- 1
Kostak 2800/- +/- 50
SBI Cards IPO - *Breakeven / Justification of the current GMP*
Assuming:
1) The issue size to be of *Rs.8,500 Crs*
And
2) A stupendous demand for leverage, will allow the NBFCs to make hay while the sun shines, and giving them the opportunity to charge a higher rate of interest of *11%pa for 7 days*
In that case:
A) The NII category size will be Rs.1,146Cr and the interest cost will be *Rs.200/-* ... only if NII category receives appllications worth approximately *Rs.1.80L Crs.*
Additionally,
B) The SBI Shareholder category size will be Rs.807Cr. and the interest cost will be *Rs.200/-* ... only if SBI Shareholder category receives appllications worth approximately *Rs.1.25L Crs.*
To my mind these numbers look insane, and hence the current GMP of Rs.200/- beats all sense of logic from this point of view.
However, the collective wisdom of the market is supreme. Hence, shall be interesting to watch how the Grey Market Premium moves over the next 6 weeks
SBI Cards IPO - * Beneficiaries of the IPO proceeds*
Fresh Issue is to Rs.500Crs. (Money to be received by SBI Cards and Payment Services)
And the Offer for Sale is of 130,526,798 Equity Shares
Out of which:
A) SBI is selling 37,293,371 Equity Shares (Money to be received by SBI Bank)
B) CA ROVER HOLDINGS is selling 93,233,427 Equity Shares (Money to be received by an entity ultimately controlled by the Carlyle group)
So it is definitely not an IPO by the Government of India. However, please note the *largest beneficiary of the proceeds of this IPO will be an American Private Equity Fund*.
Now give a moment to introspect, would a capitalist fund manager leave an *unreasonable* amount on the table for the IPO investors?