SBI Cards IPO - Schedule *(Tentative)* *(Revised)*
28th Feb - Announcement of Price Band (Target is to make formal announcement within February)
03rd Mar - Anchor Investors Allotment
04th Mar - Offer Opens
06th Mar - Offer Closes
12th Mar - Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
13th Mar - Unblocking of ASBA Accounts
16th Mar - Credit of Equity Shares to Depository Accounts
17th Mar - Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE
SBI Cards IPO - Issue Information *(Tentative)*
Issue Opens on: 04 March 2020
Issue Closes on: 06 March 2020
Issue Type: Book Built Issue IPO
Issue Size: 13,76,69,655 Shares
Face Value: Rs.10/- per Share
Issue Price: Rs.690 - Rs.700 per Share *(Tentative)* *(Revised)*
Discount: Rs.10/- (for Employees)
Market Lot: 21 Shares
Listing At: NSE, BSE
Equity Shares outstanding prior to the Issue = 93,23,34,278 Shares
Employee Reservation of 18,64,669 Shares @690/- = Rs.128.66Crs (after discount of Rs.10/-)
SBI Shareholders Reservation of 1,30,52,680 Shares @700/- = Rs.913.69 Crs (Discount - NIL)
Net Offer for Sale of 11,56,09,449 @700/- = Rs.8,092.66Crs
Fresh Issue of 71,42,857 @700/- = Rs.500.00Crs
Equity Shares outstanding after the Issue = 93,94,77,135 Shares
Category-wise Break up:
Anchor - 3,68,25,692 Shares = 2,577.80Crs
QIB - 2,45,50,461 Shares = 1,718.53Crs
NII - 1,84,12,846 Shares = 1,288.90Crs
RII - 4,29,63,307 Shares = 3,007.43Crs (Lot size: 21 = 20,45,872 Forms)
SBI Shareholders - 1,30,52,680 Shares = 913.69Crs
Empl. Quota - 18,64,669 Shares = 128.66Crs (@690 per Share)
Total Issue - 13,76,69,655 Shares = 9,635.01Crs.
Subscription required for 1X
RII = 20,45,872 Forms
NII = 1,288.90Crs
SH = 913.69Crs
SBI Cards IPO - Financial Information (Basis of Valuation)
EPS for FY16-17 >>> Rs.4.75 (Page #93 of DRHP)
EPS for FY17-18 >>> Rs.7.40 (Page #93 of DRHP)
EPS for FY18-19 >>> Rs.9.43 (Page #93 of DRHP)
EPS for H119-20 >>> Rs.7.79 (Page #93 of DRHP)
RoNW for FY16-17 >>> 26.00% (Page #94 of DRHP)
RoNW for FY17-18 >>> 25.00% (Page #94 of DRHP)
RoNW for FY18-19 >>> 24.00% (Page #94 of DRHP)
RoNW for H119-20 >>> 17.00% (Page #94 of DRHP)
NAV as on September 30, 2019 was Rs.46.99 (Page #94 of DRHP)
Listed Industry Peer Group (Page #94 of DRHP): NONE
SBI Cards IPO - Issue Size / Price per Share
If, Issue Size = Rs.8,500 Crs ... Then, Share Price = Rs.618/-
If, Issue Size = Rs.9,000 Crs ... Then, Share Price = Rs.650/-
If, Issue Size = Rs.9,500 Crs ... Then, Share Price = Rs.685/-
If, Issue Size = Rs.10,000 Crs ... Then, Share Price = Rs.725/-
If, Issue Size = Rs.10,400 Crs ... Then, Share Price = Rs.750/-
SBI Cards IPO - *Market's Current Estimates of oversubscription*:
RII = 30.00L Forms = 1.47X Applic. wise (Avg allotment of ~14.32 shares per lot)
NII = 165K Crs. = ~128.02X
SH = 115K Crs. = ~125.86X
Interest cost *@14.00%p.a.* for 7days = 187.95paise for 1X
Thus, for NII the costing = 128.02 X 187.95paise = Rs.240.68 per share (= GMP)
And, for RII the costing = 14.32 X 240.60 = Rs. ~3446/- (= Kostak)
Thus, for SH the costing = 125.86 X 187.95paise = Rs.236.55per share (= GMP)
SBI Cards IPO - *GMP Estimated*
GMP 240 +/- 2
Kostak 3450/- +/- 50
SBI Cards IPO - *Breakeven / Justification of the current GMP*
Assuming:
1) The issue size to be of *Rs.9,650 Crs*
And
2) A stupendous demand for leverage, will allow the NBFCs to make hay while the sun shines, and giving them the opportunity to charge a higher rate of interest of *14%pa for 7 days*
In that case:
A) The NII category size will be Rs.1,289Cr and the interest cost will be *Rs.240/-* ... only if NII category receives appllications worth approximately *Rs.1.65L Crs.*
Additionally,
B) The SBI Shareholder category size will be Rs.914Cr. and the interest cost will be *Rs.240/-* ... only if SBI Shareholder category receives appllications worth approximately *Rs.1.15L Crs.*
To my mind these numbers look insane, and hence the current GMP of Rs.240/- beats all sense of logic from this point of view.
However, the collective wisdom of the market is supreme. Hence, shall be interesting to watch how the Grey Market Premium moves over the next 3-4 weeks
SBI Cards IPO - *Ultimate Beneficiaries of the IPO proceeds*
Fresh Issue is only of Rs.500Crs. (Money to be received by SBI Cards and Payment Services)
And the Offer for Sale is of 130,526,798 Equity Shares
Out of which:
A) SBI is selling 37,293,371 Equity Shares (Money to be received by SBI Bank ~Rs.2,611Crs)
B) CA Rover Holdings is selling 93,233,427 Equity Shares (Money to be received by an entity ultimately controlled by the *Carlyle Group* ~Rs.6,526Crs)
So it is definitely not an IPO by the Government of India. However, please note the *largest beneficiary of the proceeds of this IPO will be an American Private Equity Fund*.
Now give a moment to introspect, would a capitalist fund manager leave an *unreasonable* amount on the table for the IPO investors?