@Bhuvan Sorry for a long answer, tried to convey with different assumptions from my mind. Some might find this rubbish and they can ignore this message
♦️ View 1:
Probability = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible outcomes
For 1 lot category, the probability of getting selected would be:
Probability = 1200 / 12000 = 0.1 = 10%
For 13 lot category, the probability of getting selected would be:
Probability = 400 / 4000 = 0.1 = 10%
So in both case probability is same - 10%
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♦️ View 2:
Definitely the lucky draw is done using a software.
Now considering your example of lot 1, system has to pick 1200 from 12000. This cannot be done in one scan of 12000 applications. so consider system picks 12 applications per scan. Hence system will scan the applications 100 times to select 1200 application.
For 13 lots category system has to pick 400 from 4000 applications. Same software will scan 400/12= ~33 times
So your application comes under the scanning radar more times in 1 lot category as compared to 13 lots.
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♦️ View 3:
One more view, if you apply 1000 applications out of total 4000 with 13 lots with 1:10 ratio only 400 applications will be selected (assume all 400 selected applications are yours)
But if you apply 1000 applications out of 12000 with 1 lot with 1:10 ratio, 1200 applications will selected and might be 1000 selected applications are yours
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♦️ CONCLUSION: It's better to apply 1 lot in retail instead of 13 lots.
Also you can utilize the funds in other parallel IPO.
Thanks for reading this lengthy message 🙏