JUST SOME INFO FROM NAVNEET ANNUAL REPORT BEST QUARTER IS NOT LAST QUARTER SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING ANNUAL REPORT THE BEST QUARTER IS FIRST QUARTER
S Chand reported a very bad first quarter which for this industry it is best quarter so many question if they do not come with 2nd and third quarterly it make this IPO more risky
BTW i have download Naveent Education Annual report if you remove stationary business it get an enterprise value of 1750 Crs since the balance sheet does have break up profit just the topline and also does not have the margins on each business i am giving 60% of profit for publication business which approx 72 Crs from education and publication business meaning i am getting a PE of 24
So if S Chand comes to market it should offer it share at discount to Naveent EV of Rs 1750 so the IPO should come with MC of 1500 so per share price should be Rs 430 then we investor could get good return at RS580 it is overpriced by at least 100 rupees.
IMO fair vaule all thing equal if you compare Naveent education is Rs430
YOU WILL SEE THAT I HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHTAGE TO PUBLICATION BUSINESS IN BOTTOM LINE FOR NAVEENT EDUCATION IF I KEEP THEM EQUAL THEN EV WILL BE WORSE OF
IT IS AVOID FOR ME JUST BASED ON PEER COMPARISON
AVOID BETTER OPTION IS AVAILABLE IN THE MARKET SO WHY APPLY FOR HIGH PRICED IPO
I know Aditya Birla married a south india Tamil bharmin but birla from Rajasthan Think out of box is not textile or ur fmcg it is product we all use it presently strongly controlled by unorganised sectors
Two Directors Dinesh Kr Jhunjhunwala & Gaurav Kumar Jhunjhunwala (most likely father and son).........have just BASIC Education. The education level is so low that their own website says its a basic education.............that means not even a graduation.
Gaurav is only 29, that means the company only sells books but never reads them !!
And if one goes to the website and looks at the directors, the photograph of the Chairman Mr Desh Raj Dogra seems to have been taken an a police lockup !
Sad to point all this out, but of one wants Rs 600 crores and fleece the investors be prepared for a thorough public scrutiny.
I think I wasnt very clear in my earlier post regarding the qualifications of the promoters. I am aware of Ambani and Gates.
My point is that this sector is education. And I tried to single out the 29 year old Jhunjhunwala as the illiterate trying to run the education company. I have no issues with the first genration promoters being not qualified but rich and powerfulo having unqualified kids and giving them a board seat in an educational company is blasphemous. I still stand by what I have said.
Now I also see the GMP of over Rs 100. Best of luck guys. If you want to lose money why should I come in between ?
Hi, Why are people misguiding investors here?. 1. The numbers for 2013, 14, 15, 16 are available. And they are very BAD. Sales dropping, Profits margins 5.8% ! ( 2016). 2. The Rs 650 crore being raised would repay the loans. At 10% interest rates the company will make 65 crores from 2018. If you are an existing shareholder thats great, because some fool is buying your stocks at Rs 580.
Guys this is worse than CL Educate. Dont go by the brand name.
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April 8, 2017 4:44:34 PM
IPO Guru (2600+ Posts, 3700+ Likes)
For LT buy auto / oil & gas sector - MRF, Eichor, symphony,caplin point, maruti. Avoid IT , telecom , education & pharma Cos. for LT For ST buy TechMahindra,FMCG - rice and sugar stocks,apollo hospital .
46. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
April 8, 2017 9:55:06 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
REPLY TO YOUR EARLIER POST AnandK i am very clear with this IPO it is high priced loss making company in sector which has not given any returns and i am very sure all in this forum understand. Only person who is positive on this loss making company is U not clear why u r so optimistic on this IPO
We all in this forum want to know why u r so positive on this loss making company do you have some special INSIDE INFO WHICH WE R NOT PREVIE TOO
When I said I am positive, it is in the context that it won''t open at discount as many is foreseeing here. I also find valuation at slightly higher end perhaps looking at the current scenario I find it fair.
Loss making company? Company''s business is cyclical (seasonal) and it generates maximum business in the last quarter.
Instead of picking figures from consolidated statement one should look at at proforma numbers given in the DRHP. It will help us in predicting projections better.
The only negative about the company is that CBSE is pushing its affiliated schools to use NCERT books. They have released advisory circular for the same to all schools. Being having the strong presence in CBSE/ICSE schools, it is a threat to company''s growth.
What is the urgency to take exposure in S Chandra & Co. we 1. there is risk on future sales due to more use of ncert books 2. the business is cyclical and we don''t know when the cycle will be favourable to the investors 3. when the company''s top line and bottom line are not satisfactory 4. when the issue price is too high and 5. last but not the least, when CL Education has already taught a lesson to the poor retail investors. If anyone wants to apply,. Apply to the IPO at your own risk.
Hey NPT Every industry/sector is exposed to some kind of threat. There''s always an uncertainty about their future performance. So what matters is how one deals with it. For S.chand, they had identified it and I am sure they will have some plan in place.
Cyclical or non-cyclical doesn''t matter to genuine investors, traders may consider it.
Company''s top line is impressive as per reported no''s and they have registered an organic growth of 20% from 2012 to 2016.
I agree that offer price is at higher end but there is scope of making some profit from that price.
I will stay away from the IPO. When I am not sure of the return I will simply avoid the issue to protect my capital. If it gives +ve return to the investors on its listing I will be very happy.
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April 8, 2017 4:20:39 PM
IPO Guru (2600+ Posts, 3700+ Likes)
Dear Anand
You are very optimistic in this IPO & very pessimistic in HUDCO. According to you SCC won''t open at discount & fair value of HUDCO lies in the range of 33 - 38.
I just want to know only 1 thing in your contradictory opinion that have you assumed same required rate of return in both ? I supposed that growth rate would be different in your formula as both belong to different sector.
Yes, totally different from valuation technique to all sorts of assumptions.
Pessimistic in HUDCO? A big NO. My point is that one should sell at kostak or GMP because that is the maximum one can squeeze from this company which may also means that it won''t list above 75-80 as per my analysis. I think you also had similar initial reaction w.r.t. GMP.
The average eps for this company from last 3 years i.e 2013 to 2016 is 14.73....So at Rs.580 it is asking for a multiple of 40x....
It closest peer Navneet is trading at 25x....This high price cannot be justified....
Anybody sharing details about it''s 2016-17 performance will be appreciated.....
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April 8, 2017 9:49:13 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
Naveent gets a higher PE multiply bcoz of its stationary business which account for major part of its bottom. In layman tern Naveent is a stationery company with interest in publication and education sector all the biz in navneet is due to demerger news which will unlock value also some good broker coverage on the stock
In regards to S Chand DRHP 1st quarterly 2016 result miserable the company reported a -9.52 negative EPS for 3 months BTW the business is very seasonal the best quarter is is last quarter and sfirst quarter however this seasonal effect is change with many boards both state and central educational board and universities now have tri-semester syllabus pattern so books get changed in each semesters
Company have not provided 2nd and 3 rd quarter result in DRHP may be once RHP is out we will know the real picture. If the company does not provided 2nd and 3rd quarterly then it will be BIG QUESTION MARK AS HOW GOOD THE COMPANY PREFORMED IN THIS LAST FEW QUARTERS TO JUSTIFY IPO PRICE OF Rs580
I understand people are refraining from investment in education sector and related sectors. This may be because of their past experience in these companies or they may have lost good amount of their investments or whatever.
I think it is slightly over-valued (in fact fairly valued looking at the current scenario) and it may not give one good listing gains as one expect but it wont'' list at discount for sure.
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April 7, 2017 1:15:04 PM
IPO Guru (2600+ Posts, 3700+ Likes)
. 🙃😔😕😞😟ðŸ˜ðŸ˜¯ Chand ka Sultan 😦😡😠😰 .
Dear Roz, sometimes I don''t like your style to comment as you love pinching others [ including me once :) ] and also you don''t care what I like ;) But bro, I appreciate your view on S Chand as you don''t think parallel for all company. you are one of few writer here whom I read. let price be finalized. Don''t know much about this co. but surely It should not be considered another CL. and yes keep posting here. we can enhance our research by various posts. as I have said so many days earlier that I don''t like genius ques. like date/allotment/gmp/unblock etc..