How many lots should i apply for allotment?. One lot are there any chances of allotment. The IPO is closing today. Earlier responses will be apperciated.... Srinivasan, BNG
Logic is simple. If QIB and HNI are not supporting the issue then dont subscribe. Its simple. No need to complicate it by bidding at 3 different prices and all that. If you can take the risk at a particular price then put a bid at that price what is the use of putting 3 different price bids? Anyway if the price discovered is the lowest then all three bids are successfull. If price discovered is highest then 1 bid successful. So we dont have any control anyways.
Microsec 18-20 Kostak :- no trade even at 1500 (strictly avoid)
Career point 120-124 Kostak:- 1700 (chances of lottery are very high, no need to go , better to leave this and apply in others where allotments are sure)
Ramky Infra 20-22 Kostak 1700 (Chances of going in discount very very high, Highly overpriced, size is so big 550 crore)
Ashoka 55-58 Kostak 1800 (very very good IPO to apply, just like IL&Fstrans, will give at least 10K per application if u hold for 6 months)
Vatach 295-300 Kostak 2100 (Good IPO, must apply, as size is large , chances of allotment are also good)
Very high price, Better you invest money in ASHOKA IPO. Very lucarative price. sure returns
92. aRYANrAJ| Link| Bookmark|
September 23, 2010 11:46:09 AM
Top Contributor (600+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
So you are betting on most win win scenrio of
405 if subs are less than 1x, anchor won't let price below 425. You win BIG!!
415 even if there is chance of 1.5x subs, this bid may work as most of the bids are coming at lower end.
425, anchor price, your last bet. 33+35 gmp is your gain assuming gmp don't go down and market reacts and opens as gmp.
>425, money goes blocked and can't be used in ood IPO like Tecpro/Ashoka. :D
91. aRYANrAJ| Link| Bookmark|
September 23, 2010 11:39:59 AM
Top Contributor (600+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
But if price found is anywhere above 425, you get nothing. And it can be dangerous affair cos herd mentallity may drive last minute subscription just like Tirupati or Ganesh. If price is found at 468 which is way too high, you get nothing and those who bidded at cut-off gets shares. There risk is more though. Here we are assuming a lukeworm response and lower subs, anchors @ 425 and GMP reducing everyday.
90. aRYANrAJ| Link| Bookmark|
September 23, 2010 11:35:25 AM
Top Contributor (600+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
@ 91. Anonymous Will allocation be made if a retailer bids below cut-off price when retail portion gets subscribed below 1x.
Yes, according to your prefrence even above 1x. Suppose you bid at 405, 415 and 425 and price is found at 425, subs assuming at 1.24x (just for example) your 1st 2 bids stands void and 3rd bid will be counted (if you have placed higher amounts). Here too a person bidding say 42 shares will get piece of cake instead of 14, if both have bidded above way. Hope it helps.
One of them can be correct (90. aRYANrAJ) or (80. Sj). Not both. Please clarify. Will allocation be made if a retailer bids below cut-off price when retail portion gets subscribed below 1x.
88. aRYANrAJ| Link| Bookmark|
September 23, 2010 11:04:36 AM
Top Contributor (600+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
One can apply at 405, 415 and 425. When you place bids here are 3 bid offers. Use all three. Your cost will be highest bid only and since it's asba, if this issue closes below 1x in retail, you get shares at 405 and rest money refund (425x14 highest deducted - 405x14) = 5950-5670=280 bucks per lot.
Don't bid above 425 or cut-off. It's like throwning away money.
Kindly give your final call on Ramky Infra. Boarders have mixed opinions in this issue. Can we go ahead and apply 1 lot in Ramky for listing gains as i have missed to apply in eror due to unavailability of forms in Chennai.
Its book running lead manager is "Enam Securities Private Limited". Enam always has issues with valuations in the past. Best example is NHPC. Seems they have done the same mistake here. The issue looks over priced.
Ramky Infrastructure Limited (Ramky) is entering in the capital markets with an initial public offering (IPO) of up to13.1 mn equity shares of Rs. 10 each at a price band of Rs. 405–468 to raise up to Rs. 5.3 bn. The issues consisting of a fresh issue of up to 8.6 mn equity shares aggregating up to Rs. 3.5 bn by the company and an offer for sale of equity shares aggregating up to Rs. 1.8 bn by Mr. Alla Ayodhya Rami Reddy, Tara India Fund III trust and Tara India Holdings A Limited. The issue, which will be through a 100% book building process, will constitute 28.0% of the post-issue paid-up equity capital of the company.
Valuation and recommendation:
We value Ramky’s stock at Rs. 504, by using the DCF method (WACC of 14.8% and terminal growth of 5%), which offers an upside potential of 24% over the lower end of the price band and 8% over the upper end of the price band. We expect the Company to continue enjoying better margins over the average of its peer set (IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd., Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd., Consolidated Construction Consortium Ltd. and Simplex Infrastructure Ltd.) with an EBITDA margin and a net margin of 13.8% and 5.7%, respectively, as compared to an EBITDA and a net profit margin of 9.6% and 3.9%, respectively, of its peer set for FY11E. This is primarily attributable to its operating efficiencies and diverse order book . The issue appears attractive with a forward P/E of 13.1x at the lower end of the price band and 15.2x at the upper band for FY11E, as compared to the average P/E of 15.3x for FY11E for its peer set. Thus we recommend investors to subscribe to the issue.
CRISIL gives an average rating of 3 /5 to Ramky IPO stating that its an average company due to intense competition in their sector n a relatively new player in BOT segment having completed only 1 project.
GMP for Vatech increasing to 360, Electrosteel application kostak touches 2300 & Cantabil enjoying a premium of 20 rs.
IT SEEMS THERE IS NO ACTIVITY ON GMP For RAMKY INFRA.
NO TRADE IS HAPPENING IN GREY MARKET WHILE ITS quite active in other scrips surprisingly even in Cantabil & Electrosteel what to say of Vatech Wabag.
My regular vendor of IPO forms says that he has not received a single applications of Ramky Infra because of poor demand while demand is good in other IPOs.
CNBC AWAAZ IPO program telecasted today at 930 PM was very negative on Ramky Infrastructure IPO saying the valuations were very steep when compared with others like IVRCL,Patel Engg etc.
One thing which left avery bad taste in mouth for Ramky was the huge differential in price band of 405 -468.THis reflects very poorly on Promoters & their excessive greed.
Bahti ganga me haath dhona chate hain. Kuch sharm karo Reddy saab.Investors will stay from you