Wrote a long post, with many calculations and own observations, and session timed out when submitted :-( Redoing it all over again.
@Admin @ Chittorgarh.com please do something about this, maybe increase the session validity. Most long posts with original content will encounter this issue, and it's difficult to recreate the same feel and flow again. :-(
@Jai Jai Pratap(JJP), I agree with
@Kousik Chakravarti that EMS does not provide apt comparison, as size AND market timing are key features behind subscription.
So, I am doing similar analysis for the three large (cutoff Rs 1000 Cr size) issues of 2023, viz. Concord, SBFC Fin and Mankind.
Further, I think the amount committed is more relevant, compared to the number of times subscribed. However, I am retaining JJP's template.
Also, excluding anchor portion (as mentioned by JJP), as far as I understand, the subscription figures will be lower, and I am incorporating that here.
Issue Size:
R R Kabel: 1964 Cr (~91% OFS)
Concord: 1551 Cr (100% OFS)
SBFC Fin: 1025 Cr (~41% OFS)
Mankind: 4326 Cr (100% OFS)
Overall
R R Kabel: 13.12 Times - 25761 Cr
Concord: 17.41 Times - 26994 Cr (Comparable to RRK)
SBFC Fin: 52.07 Times - 53396 Cr (more than 2x RRK!)
Mankind: 10.72 Times - 46387 Cr (~80% more than RRK)
QIB
R R Kabel: 52.26 Times - 20402 Cr
Concord: 67.67 Times - 20975 Cr (Comparable to RRK)
SBFC Fin: 203.61 Times - 41323 Cr (more than 2x RRK)
Mankind: 49.16 Times - 42534 Cr (more than 2x RRK)
BHNI
R R Kabel: 15.68 Times - 3061 Cr
Concord: 19.30 Times - 2991 Cr (Comparable to RRK)
SBFC Fin: 56.69 Times - 5753 Cr (almost 2x RRK)
Mankind: 4.99 Times - 2160 Cr (~30% less than RRK)
SHNI
R R Kabel: 8.33 Times - 813 Cr
Concord: 12.37 Times - 959 Cr (18% more than RRK)
SBFC Fin: 42.07 Times - 2135 Cr (more than 2.5x RRK)
Mankind: 1.41 Times - 305 Cr (~60% less than RRK)
Retail
R R Kabel: 2.13 Times - 1453 Cr
Concord: 3.78 Times - 2051 Cr (41% more than RRK)
SBFC Fin: 11.60 Times - 4119 Cr (almost 3x RRK)
Mankind: 0.92 Times - 1388 Cr (comparable to RRK)
Employee
R R Kabel: 2.69 Times - 32.07 Cr
Concord: 24.48 Times - 18.14 Cr (43% less than RRK)
SBFC Fin: 6.21 Times - 65.98 Cr (more than 2x RRK)
Mankind: NA
My observations:
1. Clearly, the prevalent GMP plays a major role in determining subscription levels across the board (including QIBs). SBFC came with potential 60-70% GMP.
2. QIBs made a killing on Mankind (can't miss the irony here!), Retail was also decent, but surprisingly HNIs missed the bus.
3. JJP mentioned that RRK (10%) has 1/5 premium compared to EMS (50%). Well, the subscription can't be attributed to brand value and ads visibility alone. Size does matter. Expected value of anything is the product of probability of success (allotment) and expected gain.
Please let me know in case my understanding of overall subscription (excluding anchor portion) is wrong.