Should apply for listing gain ??? Experts pls guide
11. YBPK| Link| Bookmark|
May 16, 2024 1:44:25 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 700 Likes)
Blockbuster LM, Lacklustre MM, combination last seen in Yash Optics. Allotees should be prepared to play fastest finger and sell before MM does on listing day. Company manufacturing pharmaceutical products from 1998. Promoters while not academically qualified seem to be hands on experienced people. 4 criminal cases/matters against company & its promoters for supply NSQ (Non Standard Quality) products in various states. Earlier promoters were husband wife duo of Anil Sabarwal and Kavita Sabarwal. Kavita Sabarwal passed away in 2021. Now RHP shows husband wife duo of Anil Sabarwal (56) and Tejaswini Sabarwal (28) as promoters. Tejaswini Sabarwal (Chouhan) has experience of 5 years in the company that is she has been working since 2019 when Kavita Sabarwal was alive. Rest is left to investors imagination. Prospective investors have to think about how much promoter’s personal life will impact company performance. As per EPFO company deposited PF for 71 employees for Mar-24, 61 employees for Mar-23 and 48 employees for Mar-22. Company has declared it had 83 employees as on 31-Dec-23. Material cost as % of sales is consistently coming down, from 80.46% for 20-21 to 64.37% for 9MFY24. Highly dependent on government business, up from 18% of sales for 20-21 to 78% for 9MFY24. Top 10 customers make up 97.5% of sales for 9MFY24 while top 10 vendor provide 63% of the material consumed. Receivables have jumped from Rs 20 cr on 31-mar-23 to Rs 29.7 cr on 31-Dec-23. As on 31-Dec-23, Rs 7.2 cr is outstanding for 6 mths to 1 year while Rs 1.9 cr is outstanding for more than 1 year. Company has written off bad debt of Rs 1.34 cr in 20-21 and 21-22. It appears there is no provision for bad debts in Balance Sheet. Company has paid fines and penalties of Rs 2.24 cr in 22-23 and Rs 2.11 cr in 9MFY24. Other expenses were 13.8% of sales for 22-23 and 11% of sales for 9MFY23. Whether the reduction is artificial or realistic is to be judged by investors. Commission paid was Rs 72 lacs in 22-23 and Rs 0.5 lacs in 9MFY24. Similarly, consultancy fees paid were Rs 53 lacs in 22-23 and Rs 1.4 lacs for 9MFY24. Business borrowings are from HDFC bank with interest rate of 8.87% to 11.25%. Unsecured loans are @ 12%, although amount is immaterial. DSO is continuously increasing, from 124 days in 22-23 to 127 days iin 23-24 and 159 days in 24-25, indicating company has to provide longer credit to grow its business. Cash conversion cycle (Inventory+Debtors-Creditors) was (-ve) 5 days for 22-23, (+ve) 55 days for 23-24 estimated and 133 days for 24-25 estimated. Shows that company is facing strong competition and cannot sustain business without providing very long credit period. Based on working capital projections, company expects turnover of Rs 107 cr in 23-24 and Rs 115 cr in 24-25, implying a growth rate of 7.5% for 24-25. Average cash flow from operations. PBT for 45M till Dec-23 is Rs 24.66 cr while CFOB4T for the same period is Rs 12.11 cr, largely managed by stretched creditors payments. How long is it sustainable remains to be seen. Capacity utilisation across different categories varies from 25% to 81%. Page 160 of RHP shows capacity utilisation details. It seems company has done capacity expansion in 21-22 and 22-23 and there appears to be significant underutilization in Dry Syrup, External Liquid and Ointment in 23-24. The IPO proceeds will be used to establish Vial Liquid and Vial ampoule powder lines. Company has done pre-IPO placement of 11.50 lac shares @ Rs 30 per share in Jan-24 and IPO in May-24 is @ Rs 97 per share. Pre-IPO investors include Kamlesh Gandhi, Priti Gandhi, 1955 ventures, Pooja Bansal and others. Fellow CG boarders may share background of these investors, if available. Anchor investors include Rajasthan Global Securities and other regular investors.
In depth analysis and great write up sir. Thank you for the wonderful analysis. Wish you continue the same for all IPOs.
11.2. k l patel| Link| Bookmark|
May 16, 2024 3:58:58 PM
IPO Mentor (600+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
its imp to note that 4 months back shares allotted at 30 and now ipo at 97rs... paying repeating penalties of above 2cr is also not good sign, it put question mark on genuineness of promoters thanks YBPK for detail analysis
Anil sabrawal seems ayyash types as ex wife dead under mysterious circumstances later he married with worker tejaswini ...also indulging NSQ enough to stay away
11.7. IPONEED| Link| Bookmark|
May 17, 2024 12:01:51 PM
IPO Guru (2200+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
ठरकी है साला
11.8. IPONEED| Link| Bookmark|
May 17, 2024 12:07:31 PM
IPO Guru (2200+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
हमारे मारवाड़ी में एक चुटकला है की एक जवान लड़की ने एक बूढ़े अमीर आदमी से शादी की तो आस पड़ोस वालों से उस लड़की से पूछा की तूने इस बूढ़े में ऐसा क्या देखा की तूने इससे शादी कर ली तो लड़की ने बोला की एक तो इसकी नेटवर्थ ज्यादा और एक उम्र ज्यादा बस फायदा ही फायदा
Mauka nahi mila hai, wohi aisi batein karte hain. Mujhe mile to mai bhi yahi karon. Anyway Zenith ka jala, Quest ko phoonk kar piyega. Personally not applying. The sector is very cold+election+ Pharma regulations will improve sooner or later. (Abhi population jada hai, koi fark nahi padta, kuch chale gaye ya apahiz hongaye). Other minor factors are also there. YBPK's analysis is always great to read. All the best to all applicants, applying here, for allotment and great listing.
11.10. IPONEED| Link| Bookmark|
May 17, 2024 12:47:48 PM
IPO Guru (2200+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
Zenith Drugs, a recent listing in same space, has had a torrid time - trading at FY24E PE of just 11 (or market expecting poor H2), and at half of post listing peak. JFL is at 15 PE. Beta Drugs not right comp since it makes Oncology drugs.
Financials look alright, but market not giving this sector any premium. Quest coming at 15 PE which leaves nothing on the table.
Our promoter has been held liable in one of the matters bearing no. 131/2016 wherein he has been sentenced for an imprisonment of 1 (One) year and a fine of Rs. 20,000/-. The matter pertains to manufacturing of Not of Standard Quality (NSQ) Drugs. Our Promoter have however not accepted the allegations and have contested the said order in the Jharkhand High Court, Ranchi on the grounds that the samples were collected from a store where the drugs in question had been supplied by the Company and that for maintaining the quality of the drugs, the storage conditions are also a decisive factor. The appeal has been admitted by the concerned court of law and the same is pending.
No discussion in this page. No data on gmp for this issue available as well. Sector looks good. Same with company as per my understanding. I intend to apply here. Whats your call on this issue? Throw some light if you find any cons.
4.1. Basuvr| Link| Bookmark|
May 15, 2024 8:45:04 PM
IPO Guru (2100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
Below is my view.
LM is Rikhav and GMP is zero, condering secondary markets up and down this can land anywhere. Risk takers and those who has earned in recent IPO'S can apply.
Already applied FF here from multiple accounts. All other members have done a very worthy and relevant analysis however I'm trying to view the business for what it's worth and feel that there is value on the table for multiple reasons. Regret not being able to respond earlier.
Issue Type: Book Built Revenue : Moderate PAT : Good with comparison to sales Debt : Low Debt, can be easily repaid. PAT is higher then Debt which is a healthy sign. Overall Financials : Good Company Valuation and Peer to peer Comparison: Justified Valuation Anchor Investment : YES Product Market Fit : Good as demand for Pharma products keep on increasing Customer Base: Data Only Domestic Lead Manager & Registrar Track Record : Very Good Note: Company has WHO certification for its products which is an Advantage. Apply: YES
Just a word of Caution! Company has few ongoing Criminal cases as mentioned in there RHP, which is bit turn down. Need to see how company cope up with the same in coming time.