Precision Camshafts Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 42)

245. ~~Rajeev Kumar Singh~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 4:32:43 PM

I will wait to see subscription numbers till 29 Jan 1200 h. A bit concerned with subscription figures on the first day. No HNIs? Septa, eagleeye have u applied? Or waiting like me for subscription figures?

245.1. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 5:00:09 PM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

no yet i am always 100% sure i was sure till yesterday to apply and my gut feeling says apply but all the number crunching says wait and buy after listing given the market condition ....... .

244. ~~starripo~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 3:26:39 PM

Autoparts ancillary has no charms or hypes right now on bourse as was during dr lal/NH/alkem ipo had seen.....

243. ~~mehul mehta~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 3:08:10 PM

HOW MUCH GMP FOR PCL AS PER NSE ISSUE SUBSCRIBE 0.2 times means 20 percent how much qib portion subscribe ?

243.1. prasanna | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 4:16:34 PM

It is 0.02 times. Means only 2% subscribed at 5 PM on day 1 and not 20%.

source:
http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/ipos/ipo_current_precam.htm?cat=A

242. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:30:32 PM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

Not much subscription till 3:30 am retails is 3% HNI 0% QIB 0% if these continue the issue could be big flop.......

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242.3. Mit patel | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:54:17 PM

Narayana health ka first day retail subscription 7% hi tha second day pe 30%

242.4. Viraj | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 4:02:53 PM

IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)

What is reasons ?
ASBA compalsary ?

241. jajo | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:11:26 PM

Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 200+ Likes)

As IPO applications are only to be made by ASBA or Online since 01/01/16, will some expert boarder kindly explain for the benefit of many retail investors how to apply IPO Online from Online trading account?

241.1. ABJ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:51:00 PM

one should better apply from bank ASBA.

why one would transfer the money to trading a/c and then apply. All u need it to update the D-mat details with the Bank and apply.

Not sure about the offline mode.... but online application is absolute delight

240. Ou Ai | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 1:35:56 PM

Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)

On reading several posts,analysis from several bright boarders, I get a feeling, one is trying their best to convince by various means , be it PE, be it GMP , DCF, comparison or otherwise to invest for anxiety of losing a chance to make quick money. Such analysis with an initial mindof "I want to invest " but want to ensure that value is in order is likely to get all here into a self fulfilling prophecy of "Want to". Therefore, also try the same analysis with a mindbeginning "I am not interested even if an iota of risk is there" is likely to provide you a different decision from same results/analysis. One has to be dispassionate while investing , say ," I don''t mind losing profits but don''t wish take chance of losing or getting locked in an investment in a falling market" One can also buy the same PCL later at higher or lower price even if you find it better later. By the way why not Bharat forge which is diversified into defense , power when it is at low now? By the way , here are also some boarders who are very objective in their approach.

240.1. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:37:07 PM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

nice will said it will great if we hear more from you keep contributing

239. ~~mehul mehta~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 1:35:09 PM

how much times qib and retail portion subscribe ?

238. Gravitas | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 12:51:32 PM (200+ Posts)

Peers             P/E      D/E       RoE       Net Sales
Bharat Forge             25      0.7x       22%      7,625
Ramakrishna Forgings       14      1.7x       18%      752
PCL             26      0.7x       25%      2,534
Industry             30       -       -       -

All else being same, firms with higher Leverage (D/E) should have lower P/E. This can partly explains lower P/E for Ramakrishna. But higher Leverage should also result in higher RoE which is not the case with Ramakrishna implying perhaps some fundamental weakness. Bharat Forge is more comparable to PCL.

Note that PCL''s RoE will almost halve to 13% post listing.

238.1. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 2:33:57 PM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

looking at these number i have feeling market is not interested in high price share.......

237. ~~Arjun Patel~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 11:57:35 AM

PCL GMPs 9-10 Low Volume
Kostak 500
What say ? Shall we apply

237.1. Eagleye | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 12:26:25 PM

IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)

even I am a bit concerned ... with the low volumes in the grey markets ... and a downward bias of the GMP ...

236. ~~mehul mehta~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 11:55:01 AM

what is rate of GMP FOR PCL AND TEAMLEASE ? VERY LOW SUBSCRIPTION NOW SEEN ON BSE INDIA

235. Mit patel | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 11:02:31 AM

LIVE BSE DEMAND
http://www.bseindia.com/markets/publicIssues/BSEDemandSchedule_new.aspx?Scripcode=1118

235.1. prasanna | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 4:14:16 PM

NSE link:
http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/ipos/ipo_current_precam.htm?cat=A

234. Mit patel | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:50:57 AM

cutoff price always up than max price range?

233. montud | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:33:59 AM

what is grey market premium??

232. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:15:42 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

Yatin shah was on CNBC TV18 informed 250 cr investment will give 1.5 times increase in revenue and also increase the margin given the capacity increase is based on contract order....was lag time is 2.5 cr revenue mix 70:30 export domestic..... from 80:20.... utilisation is 85% Foundary machine show 65%.

231. singhsms | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:15:20 AM

I am retail investor, my hdfc securities account showing 3 bid details,

1) share bid for .....
2). share bid for.....
3). share bid for....

I need to apply 1040 shares, so can I apply all shares in first bid ?? or should I have to split shares in 3 bids. pl reply

231.1. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:26:25 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

in case u want to apply for 1040 shares wait till 1pm Friday and then put ur order.... bcoz if the issue is over subscribe u r better of applying single lot then multi lot... in regards to bid for bid at cut off what this does is it safe guards ur order at any price the share is offered

231.2. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:27:45 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

also if the subscription is below one X in RII and ur bullish then 1040 share is recommend if above one X then ONE LOT

230. sonal gandhi | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:10:44 AM

thanks so much Septa sir!

229. Eagleye | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 9:55:39 AM

IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)

PCL GMP 10-11 per share
TSL GMP 240-250 per share

228. Eagleye | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 9:49:32 AM

IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)

Fourth Dimension Solutions Limited
Today again Upper Circuit ... @51.80

227. sonal gandhi | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 9:40:22 AM

hi Septa, is it possible for you to share the DCF valuation and how you go about it? it would be greatly appreciated. thanks in advance.

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227.1. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 9:58:49 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

basic idea is forecast future earnings and then discount this earning to present value and then divided by number of share to get share value.... to calculate three different methods r used they are called single part two part and three part method.... i like two part method with margin of safety.

Initial Cash Flow:      $63,58,10,000

Years:      1-5      6-10
Growth Rate:      18%to 12% over ten years

Terminal Growth Rate:      4%            Discount Rate:      11%

Shares Outstanding:      9,18,90,000             Margin of Safety:      30%
Debt Level:      $265 Cr

Year      Flows      Growth      Value
1      76,29,72,000       20%      $68,92,24,932
2      91,55,66,400       20%      $74,71,27,298
3      1,08,03,68,352       18%      $79,63,95,855
4      1,27,48,34,655       18%      $84,89,13,377
5      1,47,88,08,200       16%      $88,95,56,927
6      1,71,54,17,512       16%      $93,21,46,373
7      1,95,55,75,964       14%      $95,99,33,934
8      2,22,93,56,599       14%      $98,85,49,851
9      2,49,68,79,391       12%      $1,00,01,58,838
10      2,79,65,04,918       12%      $1,01,19,04,154


Terminal Year      $2,93,63,30,164

PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $8,86,39,11,539

Terminal Value:                  $18,64,03,39,672

Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $27,50,42,51,211

Number of Shares:                  9,18,90,000

Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $299.32

Margin of Safety IV:                  $209.52

What Percentage of IV comes from                   68%

227.2. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:00:32 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

sorry for dollar sign my mac excel is macro r in dollars oz dollars

227.3. Septa | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 10:08:39 AM (4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)

Initial Cash Flow:      $63,58,10,000

Years:      1-5      6-10
Growth Rate:      10% to 15%

Terminal Growth Rate:      4%            Discount Rate:      11%

Shares Outstanding:      9,18,90,000             Margin of Safety:      30%
Debt Level:      $2,56,00,00,000

Year      Flows      Growth      Value
1      69,93,91,000       10%      $63,17,89,521
2      76,93,30,100       10%      $62,77,94,466
3      88,47,29,615       15%      $65,21,80,339
4      1,01,74,39,057       15%      $67,75,13,451
5      1,17,00,54,916       15%      $70,38,30,595
6      1,28,70,60,407       10%      $69,93,79,995
7      1,41,57,66,448       10%      $69,49,57,538
8      1,55,73,43,093       10%      $69,05,63,046
9      1,71,30,77,402       10%      $68,61,96,342
10      1,88,43,85,143       10%      $68,18,57,250


Terminal Year      $1,97,86,04,400

PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $6,74,60,62,541

Terminal Value:                  $12,56,05,28,289

Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $19,30,65,90,830

Number of Shares:                  9,18,90,000

Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $182.25

Margin of Safety IV:                  $127.57

What Percentage of IV comes from                   65%
the Terminal Value:

this i think gravatis assumption and valuation

226. Gravitas | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 9:39:47 AM (200+ Posts)

China is world''s largest market for Auto. There is a structural shift in its economy from ''manufacturing'' driven to ''consumer'' driven. So, whilst its mfr/export activity is in a structural decline, ''consumption'' is not. The car per person in China is 69/1000 vs 786/1000 in US. The ''internal'' demand for consumer goods in China is expected to increase whereas other activity esp. cheap manufacturing (sweat shops) activity is decreasing.

Rather than feeding the world''s consumer''s needs (esp US''s), Chinese are now slowing moving towards becoming big consumers themselves.

GM is 2nd largest car manufacturer in China. It has benefitted a lot from recent Volkswagon scam & is inching closer towards the market leader in China (Volkswagon).

Ford has announced to close its operations in Japan & Indonesia as it''s just not able to meet competition from Japanese car makers (Toyota, Honda etc). But, I do not know how it''s doing overall.

Although the overall outlook for global economy is gloomy, Auto sector is ''slightly'' better placed due to demand in EMs which is further boosted by low fuel prices. But after all said & done, Auto remains a ''highly cyclical'' sector.Any increase in interest rates and/or slowdown in economy in its markets will surely reflect in its performance.

For PCL: Not only do we have to take a call on overall global demand but also on its main clients: GM & Ford.

226.1. Ou Ai | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 12:09:48 PM

Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)

China is world''s largest market at 20 million vehicles/annum , that is bigger than USA. However their component manufacturers are 10 and some times 50 times larger than those in India. All the biggies like Ford, GM, Volkswagen source locally and even have smaller indirect equity participation to ensure supplies. In China, none of the foreign auto company''s can have their 100% foreign firm , thus all of them are JV with Chinese state owned or private firms. This includes our Tata Motors JLR firm too which ahs a 50:50 JV with local firms. In fact GM here is owned half owned by Shanghai municipality and for those of you who don''t know, form 2009 to 2013, even GM in India was owned by Shanghai GM.Chinese component manufactures produce 10 times volume of Indian component producers at 20 % less price.(It Used to be 40% earlier). So, don''t count PCL supplies to China. Their manufacturing plants in Ningbo also ahs nothing much to talk about.

226.2. Gravitas | Link | Bookmark | January 27, 2016 12:56:57 PM (200+ Posts)

Thanks, Ou Ai.