Precision Camshafts Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 23)

Any activity in gmp?

Grey Market for Precision is almost DEAD

Eagleye any rate p+ or ne-

Another jitter from China. Manufacturing fell to its lowest in 3.5 years. Manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.6. Meaning contraction. Market may drag down today.

Dear Gravita, I was talking of manufacturing PMI of China. Its 49.6. R u talking of Indian PMI at 51.1? I was busy so still to check Indian data.

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China came in at 48.4 in January of 2016 from 48.2 in December 2015 and beating market expectations. Despite rising, the index has been in a contraction since March 2015. Production fell for the second successive month in January. Though modest, the rate of contraction was the fastest seen in four months. Employment also contracted at a faster pace. Meanwhile, new orders declined at softest pace in seven months. Weaker client demand led manufacturers to discount their prices charged again extending the current sequence of deflation to 18 months. Manufacturing PMI in China averaged 49.38 from 2011 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 52.30 in January of 2013 and a record low of 47.20 in September of 2015.

PCL premium is 12 Rs. And team is Rs. 245

Quick Heal Technologies Limited IPO Update:
 
Opens On: 08-Feb-2016
 
Closes On: 10-Feb-2016
 
Price Band: INR 311 to INR 321
 
Bid Lot: 45 Equity Shares
 
Issue Size:
 
INR 445 Crs at Lower Band &
 
INR 451 Crs at Upper Band
 
Allocation: QIB 50%, HNI 15% & Retail 35%
 
ASBA Mandatory. No Cheque will be accepted.

 

Its asking 30x-34x only
Which is reasonable

yes this is what it wanted however given market condition is drop this article really covers in depth why quick heal will quick heal for promoters and quick hurt for investor
https://bravostocks.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/quick-heal-ipo-worth-installing-or-removing/

Quick Heal IPO – Worth installing or removing?

Quick Heal recently filed a DRHP. I was curious that why did not they launch an IPO in the US, especially when the investor base in the US is more exposed to tech stocks. I checked Google for any articles about Quick Heal’s potential valuation and found a year old statement by the founder.

“Around Rs.3,000 crore is what I’m expecting,” managing director and chief executive Kailash Katkar said in an interview.

In the same article, there was another opinion statement from investment banks.

“Earlier estimates from experts and investment bankers had pegged the potential valuation at about Rs.1,200 crore.”

So I am not sure what the valuation would be. My point here is to check financials and fundamentals, and then just assess this wide range of valuation on fundamentals.

Here are the revenue numbers of Quick Heal. As you might have noticed that revenue growth has decelerated from 2013 and is mid-teens for FY 2015.

Revenue from operations       2015      2014      2013      2012      2011
All figures in Rs mn                              
Sale of manufactured products      25.89      20.01      2.98      â€“      1,435.28
Sale of traded goods      2,812.14      2,418.58      2,045.05      1,789.85      â€“
Sale of services      2.64      0.46      0.89      0.8      1.03
Revenue from Operation (gross)      2,840.67      2,439.05      2,048.92      1,790.65      1,436.31
Less – excise duty      â€“      0.01      0.08      0.88      129.04
Revenue from Operation (net)      2,840.67      2,439.04      2,048.84      1,789.77      1,307.27
% growth      16.5%      19.0%      14.5%      36.9%      
Other income      81.83      98.45      97.5      56.8      23.85
% growth      -16.9%      1.0%      71.7%      138.2%      
Total revenue      2,922.50      2,537.49      2,146.34      1,846.57      1,331.12
% growth      15.2%      18.2%      16.2%      38.7%      
On the other hand, Quick Heal’s marketing and sales expenses have been rising at more than twice of revenue growth. Quick Heal clearly has to spend more on marketing to sell more solution, as marketing expenses as % of revenues has increased by 500 bps in last two years.

Marketing and sales expenses (in Rs mn)      2015      2014      2013
Marketing & advertising expenses      288.09      223.1      190.28
Business promotion expenses      134.53      109.7      70.48
Sales incentive      223.67      145.84      103.85
Total marketing expenses      646.29      478.64      364.61
as % of revenues      22.1%      18.9%      17.0%
% growth      35.0%      31.3%      
Net profit margin has also decreased significantly from 36.1% in 2013 to 19.1% in 2015, largely becaof significant increase in employee benefit and operational expenses.

I hope these marketing dollars must be working for Quick Heal. However, the industry has changed significantly since Quick Heal started. The rise of freemium category has changed the entire landscape of antivirus industry. Moreover, popular OS, Windows and Mac, have started shipping pre-built antivirus within their OS. I really do not remember the time when I had to install an antivirus on my machine and neither do my friends and family members. So the question is who pays for these antiviruses? Two categories – 1) Gullible customers and 2) Small and medium size businesses.

If you do a Google search on install third-party antivirus then top results are about “How to uninstall third-party antivirus?” or “Why Microsoft Defender is better than third-party antivirus?”. Within freemium as well as in paid category Quick Heal does not show up in top category. You can check organic traffic to Quick Heal as well as to others from SemRush screens.

Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 7.00.36 PM Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 6.57.24 PM Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 6.56.39 PM Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 6.55.29 PM

Quick Heal’s organic search traffic is a tiny fraction of other major antivirus providers. AVG (freemium) clearly has dominance across the globe including India (orange slice). In paid category, Kaspersky is the clear leader with 115x more traffic than Quick Heal. If you do a Google search on “best free antivirus”, “free antivirus” or just “antivirus”, Quick Heal is hard to find on the first page. First page is usually filled with articles from top tech magazines reviewing top ten antivirus and Quick Heal does not show in any of those lists. I usually prefer comparisons from AV-Comparatives and Quick Heal is not the top antivirus, according to their latest survey. Source: http://bit.ly/1GzwD9K

Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 7.34.33 PM

Now that is all desktop, how about mobile? After all, mobile is increasing much faster than desktop. Quick Heal’s performance in mobile category is much worse than desktop. Here are the results from protection and usability point of view. Quick Heal is a distant 19 in protection category and 18 in usability.

Source: https://www.av-test.org/en/antivirus/mobile-devices/

If you do a search on Google Play store then also you will have to scroll beyond 7-8 pages to see Quick Heal. In terms of install count, Quick Heal has 5-10 million installs while similar top apps have 100-500 million installs. So based on Google search, I could not find a single reason to install Quick Heal on my desktop or mobile device.

Now, to the question whether Quick Heal’s IPO is worth installing? I do not see any moat or competitive advantage for the company but I would still like to see the valuation. If management’s or investment banks’ estimates are considered then Quick Heal’s valuation would look like this (data is for FY 2015).

Estimate      Mgmt.      ibank
Equity valuation      30,000      12,000
Enterprise value      28,630      10,630
EV to FCF      398.25      147.87
EV/EBITDA      27.94      10.37
EV/EBIT      34.79      12.92
Price/Earnings      53.29      21.32
Now compare this with Just Dial, who shares SMB customer segment with Quick Heal and also relies on a subscription model, Just Dial have been growing revenues at three-year CAGR of 31% while Quick Heal has grown by 26%. In terms of EBIT, Just Dial has grown at 40.1% while Quick Heal has declined by 9%. Moreover, Quick Heal’s FCF conversion is also way smaller compared to Just Dial.

Just Dial is trading at a PE of 47x, EV/EBIT of 41x, EV/EBITDA of 29x, and EV/FCF of 43x based on FY 2015 financials. So management estimate is way out of range when compared to Just Dial’s valuation. Now, what should be the right multiple here? Well Quick Heal is largely a desktop company and an EPS multiple on the consumer desktop in a global scenario could range from ~8x to something more like the low-double digit multiples PC-facing companies have generally received of late. On the other hand, IT hardware companies with more than Rs1,000 crore market capitalization in India have a PE of 25x. Quick Heal’s peer group in the US is trading at 23x. However, Quick Heal’s global peers have a diversified source of revenues and in some cases solid network effect compared to Quick Heal. I believe investment banks estimate is more reasonable compared to Quick Heal’s management.

If somehow Quick Heal can still sell you this IPO for 54x PE then I am sure the management and Sequoia Capital can say it out proud – “Sold to you, Sucka!”.

List of Companies listed on NSE ..
Having PE > Precision Camshaft:

Federal-Mogul Go
WABCO India
Motherson Sumi
Shanthi Gears
Bosch
Sona Koyo Steer.
Sundaram Clayton
Minda Corp
Timken India
Wheels India
Fag Bearings
Suprajit Engg.
Automotive Axles
ANG Inds
SKF India
Lumax Auto Tech.
Amara Raja Batt.
Harita Seating
Subros
Shivam Autotech
Jamna Auto Inds.
NRB Bearings
Autolite (I)
JBM Auto
Hi-Tech Gears
India Motor Part
India Nipp.Elec.
Menon Bearings
Minda Inds.
Rane (Madras)

Hi Eagleeye..... there is press statement put out by the company stating that it''s turnover is likely to cross 250 million dollars or around 1, 675 crore at current Rupee rate for the ar 2017.... Given the 2 years growth from 650 approx crore fir current year to the year 2017.... it seems a huge jump of over 800 to 950 odd crore... if the margins are intact... then the net profitability seems to take a significant jump.... which in turn is likely to surge up the EPS and reduce the PE drastically.... could this be possible. .???? Businessline article from Google search

i have to read
Camshaft manufacturer and supplier Precision Camshafts is eyeing a turnover of around $0.5 billion and a higher market share in the global camshaft market. “Currently, our revenues are at around Rs 500 crore. We are aiming to clock revenues of around $0.5 billion,” Precision Camshafts chairman and managing director Yatin Shah said.

The company currently has a global share of around 10-11 per cent, and we are looking at increasing that share to over 20 per cent, Shah added.

According to Shah, the company is in advanced stages of negotiations for acquisitions abroad. “We have hired consultants in Europe. They have spotted 2-3 acquisition opportunities. A part of the proceeds from the initial public offering and the fixed deposits of the company will be used for funding the acquisition as and when it happens,” Shah said.

Grey Market Premium
13-20

jet fuel price has reduce by 12% this will have good effect on aviation stock today day trading punt on aviation and forging industry IMO

today morning on CNBC TV18 i heard warren buffet has brought out name company precision castparts...... i am sharing this bcoz i heard it as precision camshaft ..... anyway at least he is bullish is casting and forging business.... I think this will have positive effect on bharat forge which also in same business as precision cast parts

in nse website there is link verify your ipo bid from it anyone can check ipo application

Can anyone advise how it can be confirmed if the application has been applied or not.
One of my friend submitted a cancelled cheque and signed form and his broker updated that he has applied for it but nowehere we can confirm if this has been applied or money has been blocked.

fHow is it possible for ur broker to update IBIS or INIS website it now done by banks. if a brokers takes ur application he has to take it the bank ur bank and update in there system and then they update IBIS anD INIS on u know which depository ur bank has update BSE or NSE once u know that and ur application u can check on BSE and NSE website.... however u do get SMS and email from NSE and BSE.... confirmation....


i think ur broker has not done the process ask them to give confirmation of submission of ur application

Pain daiga PCL kai IPO
Hope kai list above 150

Baap re ... 150???

@Eagleye when is the allotment date ??

my views on coffee cafe were correct and had asked to withdraw the application , However i am not in favour of withdrawal of application of PCL
even though my view of pcl was to stay away from the issue , but now the view has changed those who has not applied in issue , it is wise to buy at 10 am on day of listing at RS 185 -190 FOR AN target of Rs 200 on day of listing , hold , buy , sell mood will depend on scrip
market position has changed , from sell to buy
BE bear and bull as per market mood
on listing day if the mood is bearish , it will list below the issue price
SBI WAS RS 200 + My target fro sbi rs 175 was achieved but did not go to 160 - 150 levels
But now sbi at 180 is on buy mode for target of rs 200
similarly LIC AND L&T IS IN BUY MODE FROM SELL MODE
NO targets sir
as this is free forum

U got it wrong for Indigo and most others got NH or Dr Lals wrong. No big deal again. Everyone has his own view. Sometimes u get it right and sometimes u don''t. Septa got Dr Lal, I got NH wrong n u Indigo. So instead of chest thumping and self appreciating self, its better u just involve ur self in putting ur comments here. If ur comments are appreciated it would be put up by boarders. N show some maturity. If u chest thump ur success then sometimes ponder on ur failures too. It will keep u grounded to reality and maybe u will not suffer insomnia, insanity and schizophrenia.

Thanks for your views ,
what is your view for PCI now

Dont you think that there might be a negative hype created for bringing the market down and getting to list at discounted price?
I personally feel this ipo is good with strong fundamentals and i am seeing this doing good in 3 months...hope people dont fall for these hype and book loss

It may list around 170.
Bad case 162
Best case 179

I would love to buy it @160.

I am also given to understand that many Retail applicants have started cancelling their applications ... as per "MPJain''s" advise ...

In any case you cannot cancel your application.
No cancellation can be done.
Check SEBI Rule on such.

Due to lukewarm response pcl ipo
What the chances of issue on lower band 180.

No chance of 180

Egeleye how much downside u predict in opening day

what is gmp of pcl ? It is less subscribe so may list at issue price

Egeleye how much downside u predict in opening day

Egeleye is volume trade ishappening in pcl gmp

No Apex,
there are sellers @Sub-Zero .. but no buyers, hence no trades ...

Chem cho , Septa ....
Precision Camshafts Ltd IPO gives listing gain or not . what u think now.

the GMP says it will list at discount

OK ... SO WHAT IS UR ADVICE ABOUT WITHDRAWAL OF ASBA APPLICATION