Prabhat Dairy''s actual fair value may be ~64. It may be expected that it may list at par or well below par. We can rule out any listin gains. But Dilip Davada has clearly stated in his review that ''Due to fancy witnessed for white revolution segment, this IPO is to generate interest'' I too think the above is true. I am assuming this IPO will only be good if held long.
Yeah. But for long term why subscribe to the IPO if it''s likely to list at discount. Better buy from Market at a much cheaper rate and you can buy as much as you can.
COMPNAY HAS SUCH GREEDY PROMOTERS THAT THEY KNEW THE STOCK IS NOT EVEN WORTH 60 RS. USUALLY WHEN PRICE BAND IS REVISED IT HAPPENS ONLY AROUND 5 PC.
THEY HAVE ONLY COME TO LOOT PEOPLE. THERE WILL BE NO BUYING ON LISTING IF IT MANAGE TO SAIL THROUGH BY PAYING SOME AMOUNT TO QIB. WHO WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THIS 450 CRORE ISSUE. RETRUNS FROM NET WORTH IS NOT EVEN 6 % SO EVEN RS 60 LOOKS HIGH PRICE FOR THIS COMPANY. INSTEADD BUY GOOD QUALITY MIDCAPS IN THIS MARKET FROM SECONDARY MARKET WHICH ARE SAFE BET AND WIL GIVE RETURNS IN LONG TERM.BUY NBCC AND JIYA ECO PRODUCTS AND GET 50 PC RETUNS IN 3 MONTHS.
This IPO will subscribe full by tomorrow. Even if it subscribe more than 75% then promoters will consider IPO is fully subscribed. If anyone planning to apply for this IPO, apply at lower band (Rs. 110 after discount). This will minimize risk. I don''t think so QIB and NII will apply at upper band. They will take benefit of price band reduction and market condition.
I know there is risk in this price (Rs.110) also. But risk is always there in stock market.
WHAT MAKES YOU THINK TO SUBSCRIBE AT 110. DO YOU REALLY THINK IT HAS FAIR VALUE WITH PROFITS AND MARGIN DECREASING TO ASK FOR 60 P/E. REMEMBER JUBILIANT FOODWORKS KIND OF COMMPANIES WHIC RUN ON HIGH P/E IS BECATHEY HAVE PROFITS INCREASING . HOWEVER THERE IS NOTHING TO SUPPORT PRABHAS IPO WHICH SHOULD HAVE PRICED STOCK AT 60 RS. EVEN WITH 1 PC SUBSCRIPTION IT WILL LIST AT 15-20 PC DISCOUNT AND WIL FURTHER GO DOWN BELOW 90 RS AFTER LISTING. IF YOU ARE SO MUCH INTERESTED BUY AFTER LISTING OR 1 YEAR AT 65 -70 RS.
Ortel Communications subscribed only 75% till last day but IPO considered fully subscribed. Promoters have right to reduce size of IPO at anytime. In present market condition every promoter is ready to take whatever they get from public. 70 to 75 % is good subscription figure. No one is ready to cancel IPO and come back after sometime.
ORTEL had underwriters arrangement who purchased shortfall portion . This is SEBI rule and one can not his own choice. The minimum shares the company needs to get from the public out of the total issue by the date of closure. (Presently every company need to raise 90% of the issued amount). Else, the company shall refund the whole amount received. This 90 % has to be exclusive of the cheques that are not cleared.
Urchit is right. Technically there''s one IPO and a OFS, where the latter can be reduced as long as former is at least 90% at least. That''s what happened to Ortel.
uchit you look like have some internal informatio . what make you say issue will subscribe. i suspect it will not have a single subscription today and will be cancelled.
I don''t have any internal information. But I can say from my experience in Sadbhav and all OFSs. I found sudden full subscription in Sadbhav after 3 pm on last day. Even BSE and NSE not showing subscription figure right. In all OFSs I experienced some big game after 3:15 pm when online bidders can''t modify their bid price. All online brokers have cutoff time 2:30 pm.
It''s more than 75% at 4 pm. I told everybody from beginning it will subscribe full. This is big players game. We are very small to understand this game. NSE website is also showing yesterday''s subscription till 3:50 pm. BSE website is still showing yesterday''s subscription.
Star IPO, even i want to cancel my IPO Subscription for 7 lots which i applied through ASBA, but i am unable to do so online now, so can i also reapply for 1 lot in same name to cancel it.
Yes, you can withdraw ASBA bids. During the bidding period you can approach the same bank to which you had submitted the ASBA and request for withdrawal through a duly signed letter citing your application number, TRS number, if any.
You can even cancel the bid after the ipo is closed After the bid closure period, you may send your withdrawal request to the Registrars before the finalization of basis of allotment, who will cancel your bid and instruct SCSB to unblock the application money in the bank account after the finalization of basis of allotment.
Septa, I contacted the Branch but they have given an email id on which i sent my full details of subscription & waiting for its cancelation. I tried to UNSUBSCRIBE the IPO on Net Banking through ASBA but its not giving the name of PRABHAT on UNSUBSCRIBE Option, which must have been there as BID is still on. So should i reapply again for 1 Lot so that both application can be rejected.
@anurag which online broker u r using. I three online brokers icicidirect share khan and angel all three allow be to revise the bid and cancel the bid. Sometime branch pass the parcel co back get in writing the procedures to cancel.
@Dwij, i have applied through ASBA, BAnk of Baroda Net banking. Now when i am going to UNSUBSCRIBE Option, it doesn''t give the name of PRABHAT. Any other ,?
121. Viraj| Link| Bookmark|
September 3, 2015 11:44:07 AM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
STAY AWAY . THOSE WHO APPLIED GO TO STOP PAYMENT IMMEDIATELY. FAIR VALUE OF STOCK IS 60 RS. REASONS:
High debt is eating into company’s profit. Company has paid Rs.41 crore as interest on the outstanding debt of Rs. 390 crore as at 31st March, 2015. The objective of the company includes repayment of debt by Rs.185 crore
The company has a very thin operating margin (earnings before interest, depreciation and taxes) of 10% approx. in the past 4 years. Also PAT is hovered around a meager 2% in the same period.
Return from net worth (earning per rupee invested by equity shareholders) is just 6% which shows company is not able to utilize the shareholders’ funds efficiently
Though the peer company Hatsun Agro trades at PE of 59 of FY 16 estimated earning but Hatsun’s annual turnover is three times of Prabhat’s and the return on net worth of Hatsun’s is nearly 18% while Prabhat’s has a discouraging RONW of just 6.22%. Another peer company heritage foods trades at PE of 17.5 times of FY16 estimated earnings. Even as both these companies are largely into retail-focused niche, hence not strictly comparable
Though I do not rely on GMP or Kostak and solely rely on fundamentals in relation to pricing. Here is a report of current GMP http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/post-recent-market-crash-bets-are-off-in-the-grey-market-for-ipo-deals/articleshow/48776470.cms
I try my level best to help small investors which I myself was sometimes back and thank you for your support but I am more risk taker than others. I am sure you have understood from my reviews a bit. Let the IPO sail and we will be able to see the listing price.
Hatsun currently trades at 107x trailing P/E with current market cap of 4,300 cr and FY15 PAT of 40 cr...Prabhat is being priced at 900 cr @ upper end with 300 cr fund raise so trailing P/E of 57x based on 21 cr PAT...I think this would also help make it attractive.
The reason for that is its last quarter result eps was approx 2.65 means annualised Eps of in excess 10.50. And the guidance from the company is that eps will improve big time . So based on this on 2016 earnings PE is less then 35. That is reason this IPO is Avoid.
Diary industry good however in this the promoters r asking to much they have already accounted for future earning by asking such high price. Industry PE is around 48 they were asking 65 which did not make sense even syngene vrl did there ipo the left something for investor.
In this case the promotors have not left anything plus they have already accounted for all the future earning I would have applied if this was asking a PE of 22 to 28 range not at the high.
114.3. NeoTrade| Link| Bookmark|
September 3, 2015 11:40:15 AM
IPO Mentor (700+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
Septa ji...how inappropriate of you to compare trailing PE of Prabhat with forward PE of Hatsun...analysis toh dhang se kijiye...aur agar iss analysis ke basis pe avoid karte hain...toh apki madad bhagwan kare but baki investors ko gumrah na karein!
As per my opinion for long term more than one year prabhat is good option. Becathey have launch cheese in market recently i.e. hagh margin product so profit ration will definitely increase. and also prabhat cheese plant is one of the highest per day production capacity plant in asia.
Considering the 3yr chart for ITC, I think its better to opt for ITC. Prabhat is yet to prove in equity market and besides market conditions are not good. Also initial response to this ipo is not good which indicates no intrest of QIB or HNI. Reducing the price doesnt guarantee this is at good price. My advice, stay away during this market condition from this IPO.
ITC is a large cap & comparison is not right. More like Apple with Pineapple. I personally prefer small cap as they have the ability and agility to do more. Being small in size gives a lot of space to expand by expanding the Universe and eating bigger peers pie. But the history of Prabhat Diary is limited to an unlisted entity. If you are so long you can wait to see market reaction and their activity for 2-3 quarters. I normally subscribe to IPO for listing gains unless the group has some listed entity.
Thanks buddies.. As u ppl suggested, I decided to have a known devil than an unknown angel... Will wait. I feel I may even get ITC at about 300 in few days..
I remember the bashing to Mr Gupta and me for saying Monte Carlo is a bad company. Some comments were then deleted by moderators which were abusive in nature.
Here I am saying the company seems good but not at this price.
110. Rkg| Link| Bookmark|
September 2, 2015 3:45:55 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
BOARDERS,beware.Some co.agents have become very active, suddenly.Do not let anybody"s comments influance your decision.Afterall it is your hardearned money at stake.
Exactly. NeoTrade seems like a paid stooge here. He claims to know that promoters are being called by Private Equity players and investors who are ready to buy at 140-147 band even though they can buy a huge quantity 115-126 range easily. How come being a retail investor he will have knowledge of this things. Phekne ki bhi limit hoti hai yaar.
You can always buy this share from secondary market and probably at a discount. "Price is everything and price discounts everything". Let me ask all those fundamental analyst like ''NeoTrade'' would you pay 600 per share for this becathe Fundamentals are too good with exceptional growth expected.
Also, ''NeoTrade'' I didn''t see you earlier on this board and wondering if you are a paid stooge by either promoter or merchant bankers side??
NC...as has been said earlier...being previously active on the board earlier does not establish either credibility or understanding of financial analysis fundamentals or even technical aspects of IPO!
Having said that..whilst new to the board I am trying to share and also at the same time learn based on the combined wisdom of the boarders...so it would help all of us if instead of spending your limited intellect on attempting to identify me...you would rather have a discussion on why applying makes sense or not based on solid fundamental financial analysis!
Also, once again your ill informed statement which suggests a price of 600 per share shows that you have absolutely no ability to guide boarders here on even a basic aspect such as price per share which in this case is 115-126 as per the latest data available on SEBI!
I maintain that this is a multibagger...in the investment community a lot of Private Equity investors are calling up the promoter to cancel the IPO so that they can invest in him at the previous announced price...those FII''s understand that this IPO is a victim of market volatility and junk analysis of analysts like yourself...I think the promoter is giving small retail investors a chance to participate in his growth and not going by advice of Private Equity investors...
If you know so much of fundamental analysis put it yourself. a DCF and tell me why it''s a good to subscribe at this price? Also, let me know why there''s a big Moat persists in this business.
I gave 600 just as huge price to tell you that price is an important factor and I know the price band. I did read the RHP.
With your last paragraph you proved your fundamental analysis mettle so fast becayou have knowledge of PE calling promoters. WOW!
I am telling time & again price is a very important factor for return you earn on an investment. This seems like a good company but not a great IPO and there''s a difference. Do you know there was a 10 year period when Infosys didn''t return anything? Why? Not becagrowth stopped or something went terribly wrong. Only exponential growth didn''t come through. Here also next 2-3 years earning and growth is already priced in. There''s not much value left for investors.
Neo Trade thankyou for your gyaan. We don''t need the golden chance given by them to invest in their company. You think people here are fools to believe you. If the company is so concerned about the investors, ask them to sell the shares at original price to "so-called investors". The difference in the price can be donated to charity. At least that will benefit a few people.
This forum is meant for intelligence on IPO''s so that us retailers can make an informed choice...that is the exact reason why kostak info is shared...which too is intelligence...and that is the exact reason why I shared the intelligence I had...but as always NC is more keen on identifying me than helping us all analyze how the intelligence can be put to good use!
NeoTrade: Where did you get the information that Private Equity investors are calling the promoters and I quote "in the investment community a lot of Private Equity investors are calling up the promoter to cancel the IPO so that they can invest in him at the previous announced price" and at the same time you claim you are a retail investor.
I know both Kostak and GMP works as a proxy but even in case of Monte Carlo GMP was high but vanished soon and the stock bombed. I prefer putting things in perspective with a DCF and then see if the fair price of share has a good margin of safety.
I agree DCF would be a good way to arrive at a decision...but I so wish that I had access to 5 yr projections of the Company to do the analysis...do you have access? My sources of info are not that strong...
Dont worry..if you have applied through ASBA as retail then automatically you will be allotted shares at the revised price and the balance amount will be unlocked upon allotment...just relax!
Due to market conditions Company has decided to reduce price of shares. Now shares are offered at very attractive price band of Rs.115 to 126 per share.
Due to reduction in share price number of shares offered for sale have been increased and becaof it , % subscription now came down. People are not withdrawing application nor institutions are withdrawing applications.
Need to track subscriptions continuously as it is increasing every hour. Serious investors should take decision after proper review and not based on wrong information posted in these forum.
106. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
September 2, 2015 11:32:58 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
Yesterday the subscription was .28 today at 11 am it is .24 approx 15% have cancel the application tell something abt this iPo Big avoid historically issue which have change the price band always list in discount. Fair price should have been 65 Big avoid. Retail investor should stay away from this iPo with secondary market weak iPo in general will list in discount
106.1. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
September 2, 2015 11:43:02 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
This cancelation would be online. The real picture could be worse given majority apply via cheque IMO majority of them would have activated stop payment. So IMO the cancelation would be much higher
Septa, you are highly challenged with respect to technical understanding of IPOs. The revised pricing has caused the total shares on offer to increase which causes a reduction in %subscription, since all applications are based on number of shares.
PLEASE STOP MISLEADING PEOPLE AND KEEP YOUR ILL-INFORMED ANALYSIS TO YOURSELF.
To many new comers AVOIDthis issue these people will disappear like the monkey seller in the famous Indian folk story. It is over price why pay such high price for this crap