1282. Pandit Ji| Link| Bookmark|
November 20, 2010 12:51:07 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Powergrid has been rock solid, all thorugh this massive correction, but dont get carried away, the stock would see movements 2 days before allotment, HNI and people with inside information will know exactly when the shares will be credited, and hence accordinly trade. The new shares would come into the market which would add wieght to this laggard share which moves like a snail, the shares were priced decently hence I dont see much down side also, but the upside is also capped
Strategy
Short term Investors can book profits if they get anything between 95 to 105 on listing day, Long term investors can hold for a target of 130 to 140 in a time frame of 1 year. anything above 140/- consider it as a bonus
a) HNIs entering retail quota due to increase of retail limit to 2 lakhs. Having a look at the HNI applications in Coal India, the % of HNI who have applied for Rs.10 lakhs and less (assuming these are the people who will enter retail quota) is less than 0.5% of the quota (total 12 lakh shares).
b) Even though the retail limit is increased the quota remains the same. so therefore there is going to be only reorganisation of allocation of shares (assuming over subscription which is there always now). Somebody who had been allocated x number of shares earlier will be allocated 2x now and somebody who had been allocated y number of shares will be allocated y/2 now. Ofcourse there will selling pressure due to 2x shares allocated but also we need to keep in mind that the selling pressure will be less due to y/2 shares allocated.
Therefore it is my view that there will be an increase in selling pressure to some extent but there will not be substantial change in the scenario. Lets also keep in mind that the selling pressure depends more on the HNIs and the market sentiments prevailing at that point of time.
I will advise all the traders to wait for 2-3 days before selling. Do not get panic and sell it. It will give good return within a week of listing. I mean 4-5% extra return. Its a amazing company with strong business sense. Even when sensex was 8000, this stock has not fallen below 85. Though upside is also limited. But very safe share to play with and make money. Low risk.....Low gain.
PGC is in FnO trading ban from 11th nov to yesterday (one can change date part i.e. 11-12-15-16-18-19 in above link) and will most prolly continue till 25th. Govt caught short sellers badly when on 10th as much as 85% people went short on PGC and now they are waiting to cover shorts. It wont slip below 100 that is sure if ban is stayed till 25th and on 25th people will either carryforward or cover losses in both case prices going up. Looking at this I believe PGC 105-110 on listing day itself. Don't short at all once you see it in Demat and beware you can be trapped too.
1277. aRYANrAJ| Link| Bookmark|
November 20, 2010 1:32:18 AM
Top Contributor (600+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
Saharanpuri Ji
PGC is in ban period from last few days and It doesn't look nse will unfreeze it's ban till FPO is listed.
Thanks Sharanpuri. I thought of selling my shares on listing day itself. Now your comments are very positive and made me thinking about holding it for sometime now.
Since F& O settlement will happen on 25 th November & trading of Power grid new shares will start only on 26th onwards what will happen to all those investors who shorted Nov futures thing that it will be adjusted by FPO allotments.
I THINK POWER GRID IS GOING TO GIVE SOLID RETURNS ALA REC & EIL.
It can even reach its all time high of 150-160 AS it has been consoli-ating for last 2 years & even the valuations are becoming very attractive.
EPS would touch 6 rs In March 11 & 7-8 in March 12.These cos command easily PE of 20 so can touch 120 in short term & 140-160 in medium term
So investors dont be in a hurry to sell on listing.
Its a true blue chip monopoly with lot of upside due to open access regime thanks to coming into production of massive power generation private sector capacity which will have no option but to fall back upon PGCIL for evacuation.
1273. Pandit Ji| Link| Bookmark|
November 19, 2010 10:25:34 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
dont sell shares until and unless you recieve them in your account, what if the shares are not credited on time, play safe bhai.
1268. Pandit Ji| Link| Bookmark|
November 19, 2010 6:24:50 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Ganeji
What the exchange means by listing the new shares is admitting the new distinctive numbers for trading on 26th, there is no seprate listing required for an FPO, as person can sell the shares the moment he sees them in his demat, We have done this earlier with NTPC, REC, NMDC and EIL, infact some people sold the shares a day earlier thinking the shares will be credited the next day in EIL, only to face auction
1267. Pandit Ji| Link| Bookmark|
November 19, 2010 6:20:41 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@ Minesh Patel,
If the shares are to be traded on 26th, you will be alloted shares either on 25th evening after market hours or on 26th morning before market hours