PNB Housing Finance Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 59)

At upper price band of rs 775, retail category can have around 7,08,467 lots. Even one time appwise subscription will be difficult to achieve in retail.

post ipo ronw ratio how much there ?

the IPO has been priced quite steeply at P/BV Ratio of 4.59 and PE ratio of 30.79 which is way above most of the HFCs including HDFC. The HFCs with which its has set the bar include REPCO with P/BV of 4.73 & Canfin Homes with P/BV of 5.26.

Market loves growth .....but MKT hates uncertainty even more.

Even a slightest hint of builder loans which is (20% of total loan book very high compared to others)getting into NPA will be enough reason for this to tank.....PNB word associated with company will exaggerate the tanking considering the track record !!!!!

Sir you forget the existence of Carlyle ...

Peer Group I : PNB Housing Finance vs Other HFCs
Peer Group II: PNB Housing Finance vs Other HFCs
A look at CAGR figures for sales and Net profit reveal good very aggressive growth by PNB Housing Finance in last few years even as promoter PNB does not enjoy much confidence of markets but backing of Carlyle Group , one of the world’s largest and successful investment firms is a big plus.
At the upper end of price PNB Housing Finance is asking for P/BV ratio of 4.5 & PE ratio of 30.79 . both P/BV and PE ratio are higher than other HFCs. However the IPO will have to be evaluated on its HY 2016 performance which is likely to be better.
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Home / IPO Analysis / PNB Housing Finance: Comparison with Peers
Company PNB Hsg HDFC LIC Hsg IBulls Hsg
Revenue 2699.543 55351.24 12809.94 8483.13
Face Value 10 2 2 2
Opr Profit 2460.73 33140.49 12167.62 8390.73
OPM 0.9115 0.5987 0.9499 0.9891
Net Profit 327.566 10782.89 1686.5 2421.24
NPM 0.1213 0.1948 0.1317 0.2854
Share Capital 130.793 315.97 101 84.26
Net worth 2144.5 50818.73 9145.98 10503.83
EPS 25.04 68.25 33.4 57.47
Market /Issue Price
775 1338.9 584.25 822.4
RONW 15.27% 21.22% 18.44% 23.05%
NAV 168.96 338.49 189.32 263.8
P/E 30.95 19.62 17.49 14.31
P/BV 4.59 3.96 3.09 3.12
Return on Equity 17.60% 21.26% 19.58% 27.00%
Interest Coverage 1.32 1.6 1.27 1.63
CAGR sales 3 yrs
59.42% 13.97% 17.71% 23.80%
CAGR Sales 1 yr 51.63% 11.43% 15,34% 27.09%
CAGR NP 3 Yr 52.25% 15.35% 17.52% 23.15%
CAGR NP 1 yr 68.79% 18.57% 16.63% 17.23%
NPA 0.14% 0.00% 0.22% 0.35%
Company PNB Hsg Gruh Fin Repco Canfin GIC Hsg
Revenue 2699.543 1150.64 927.73 1150.64 906.66
Face Value 10 2 10 10 10
Opr Profit 2460.73 1063.36 823.25 1063 817.26
OPM 0.9115 0.9241 0.8874 0.9238 0.9014
Net Profit 327.566 263.72 159.38 174.74 128.57
NPM 0.1213 0.2292 0.7274 0.1519 0.1418
Share Capital 130.793 72.74 62.54 26.62 53.88
Net worth 2144.5 835.3 954.83 878.04 731.8
EPS 25.04 7.25 25.48 65.64 23.86
Market /Issue Price
775 356.45 752.2 1749.55 321.5
RONW 15.27% 31.57% 16.69% 19.90% 17.57%
NAV 168.96 26.31 158.96 348.5 141.9
P/E 30.95 49.17 29.52 26.65 13.47
P/BV 4.59 13.55 4.73 5.02 2.27
ROE 17.60% 31.49% 16.99% 19.03% 17.89%
Interest Coverage 1.32 1.49 1.42 1.36 1.32
CAGR sales 3 yrs
59.42% 25.31% 29.51% 40.25% 16.53%
CAGR Sales 1 yr 51.63% 18.84% 26.03% 30.23% 17.95%
CAGR NP 3 Yr 52.25% 18.63% 23.33% 42.64% 13.55%
CAGR NP 1 yr 68.79% 19.43% 24.03% 75.81% 21.46%

CANBANK HFC for last 3 years CAGR is 40%
PNB HFC for last 3 years CAGR is 60%

Market loves growth ... Market rewards growth disproportionately !!!

absolutely ... nothing personal here ...

Salute your assessment of too as fair value

Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder !!

Eagleye,

I think you should not worry about job.You can make stock market as a primary business.
Forget even don''t try to get job as I think you are very much interested in stock market.
And i think if a person follows what he loves to do then he will become a master in that field.

This message has been removed by a moderator.

Yes ...

IF MARKET GO DOWN DISCOUNT LISTING POSSIBLE
&
IF MARKET GO UP PREMIUM LISTING POSSIBLE

TRULY VERY GYAANI !!!

Just enjoying discussion by smart brain....
775 is okay price band..8-12% left on table for us(in 2-3months)


At very first here taking price band @450-550 ..LOL...



775 is okay not attractive.FD return possible.Apply.

I actual think 550 should be the price BV is 170 3.25 X is around Rs 550. However given the late re rating for financial sector we getting this IPO at Rs 775

Also housing is highly over priced in india and return is some city is below 1% (rental yield) average is around 2.5% 80% of indian wealth is in property and these bank r giving loan to such a risky asset.

a good apartment in ECR chennai out skirts cost around 6000 post all tax so 1000 sqft apartment is costing 6 million cost of construction is 1000 sqft max is Rs 3000 per sqft. On 1000 sqft after ur UDS will be around 300 Sqft (land) and land value is 4200 Per sqft @ 300 is around 1.26 million plus 3 million cost of construction builder is selling at 6 million something which is max worth 4.26 million.


What is saying is housing finance may be a hot sector but it is also a dangerous sector

bank Nifty was 13500 6 months back now 19500 close to 50% jump..... is only reason for the RS775 valuation nothing has changed in housing sector in last 6 months for such pricey valuation

Let''s check the sentiments of us... the Retailers. WHO WANTS TO APPLY ? Answer YES or NO.

mehnga roye ek bar, sasta roye bar bar

@ 104.2. Eagleye

Aww That ....Thank goodness THEY (The Promoters) didn''t read this before the finalization of price .. lest we would be preparing for a lot size of less than a 10 :D

Okay ..Now out of curiosity ...Is the entire 3000 Cr a fresh issue of equity?.. I thought PNB (The promoters ) were diluting close to 16 % of their stake....

100% fresh issue only

            
Pre Issue            
held by PNB      64,730,700       51%
held by DEL      62,192,300       49%
Total      126,923,000       100%
            
            
Post Issue            
held by PNB      64,730,700       39%
held by DEL      62,192,300       38%
held by Public      38,709,677       23%
Total      165,632,677       100%
            

Ooh! La laa ssS!! ..Then its a screaming buy ...SCREAMING and I mean it ...I now know how Socrates must have felt after the famous bath ..

Anything at or below 3X Book and trust me.. people would kill to buy ..:D ..

NO GMP after price band declaration officially

Anyone who wants to take risk are advisable to apply one lot only

Don''t apply multiple lots else will stuck like icici

Varun meeting on wed.likely to revise price band

Pnb app sale 650 today @3:00 pm

@mehul rana: hu ahmedabad no 6u,pan pune ma rahu chhu.Mare 4 application vechvi che 650 ma.bolo ready cho?

I think PNB is following the path of ICICI Bank, by extracting last new investors.
Being a PSU Bank Promoter PNB has let down retail investors by denying retail discount. Not much left for retail investors. Seems the management carried away by the performance of selective Housing Finance Cos and NBFCs in the secondary market.

As more and more data came in, boarders took the valuation of PNBHF from 425 to 1350. Chittorgarh itself has become a stock market. Interesting!!!

I hope PNB people are not reading our posts or else they will come up with issue price which is beyond our thinking

PNB Housing Finance

Ref Page 88-90 of RHP
EPS FY13-14 => 25.87
EPS FY14-15 => 24.15
EPS FY15-16 => 27.58
EPS Q1 16-17 => 7.57

RONW FY13-14 => 16.71
RONW FY14-15 => 15.45
RONW FY15-16 => 17.60
RONW Q1 16-17 => 4.38

NAV March''14 => 142.20
NAV March''15 => 152.03
NAV March''16 => 168.96
NAV June''16 => 176.52

51% held by PNB = 64,730,700 Equity Shares (Average cost of acquisition is Rs.71.19)
49% held by DEL = 62,192,300 Equity Shares (Average cost of acquisition is Rs.113.60)
Total 126,923,000 Equity Shares outstanding prior to the Issue

DEL = Destimoney Enterprises Limited (affiliate of the Carlyle Group)

(Note: Options Granted as on April 22, 2016 – 38,07,690 @338/-)

This means eagleye you are positive on this ipo & we have to apply with full.

_/\_

Priced at 775? .. That''s such a sweet pricing let me tell you ...Now the ONUS is on us, the RETAILERS to make this issue a bigger success than even the likes of L&T Infotech and ICICI PRU ...

Thank you Mr, Naik and Ms. KoFor the retail) and vision has left us all speechless, overwhelmed ..No ..No ..We can''t ..we just can''t ask for more..:I

it is official now announced on cnbc 750-775

I feel it will be more rewarding to invest in PNB at current price. .

We can see levels of 165 in PNB on listing of PNB Housing Finance.....

PNB housing Finance Ltd
(Refer Page No 542 of RHP dated 15th Oct 2016)
24-Oct-16 – Participation by Anchor Investors
25-Oct-16 – Bid/Offer Opening Date
27-Oct-16 – Bid/Offer Closing Date
02-Nov-16 – Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
03-Nov-16 – Unblocking of Funds from ASBA Account
04-Nov-16 – Credit of Equity Shares to Demat Account
07-Nov-16 – Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE

NOTHING MUCH LEFT ON THE TABLE LIKE L&T AND ICICI. HOWEVER HOUSING FINANCE WILL SEE BIG GROWTH WITH PRO GOVERNMENT POLICY BUT BETTER OPTION IS AVAILABLE IN THE MARKET DEWAN CANFIN REPCO HDFC ALL R BEETER VAULE BETS THEN PNB IMO

3 MONTHS JUNE QUARTER PNB REPORTED A GROWTH OF 20% GROWTH QUARTER TO QUARTER GROWTH WHICH IS SUPERIOR TO INDUSTRY GROWTH

3000 CRS INFLOW WILL HELP THE LOAN BOOK BIG TIME EVEN 75% IS USED AS NEW LOAN AND 9% MARGIN WILL GIVE 200 CR TO BOTTOM LINE WHICH MORE THEN 50% JUMP IN BOTTOM LINE. HOWEVER I AM NOT PUTTING ANY WEIGHTAGE GIVE ZERO VAULE (I KNOW IT IS NOT CORRECT HOWEVER GIVEN US ELECTION AND OTHER FACTOR WE COULD SEE 20% PLUS KIND OF CORRECTION SO BETTER BE SAFE THEN SORRY)

SO BASED ON THIS I GET FAIR VAULE WITH 25% MIS AT Rs772 SO NOT MUCH LEFT HOWEVER IF MARKET TAKES THE ADDITIONAL 200 CR PROFIT WITH INCREASE IN EQUITY AS FACTOR THEN THE VAULE CHANGE. BUT THEN AGAIN IT IS DOUBLE EDGE SWORD WITH MORE OUTSTANDING EQUITY


Initial Cash Flow:      $3,28,00,00,000       (NP FOR FY2016)            
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      20%      14%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      16,56,32,677             Margin of Safety:      25%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      3,93,60,00,000       20%      $3,57,81,81,818       
2      4,72,32,00,000       20%      $3,90,34,71,074       
3      5,62,06,08,000       19%      $4,22,28,45,980       
4      6,68,85,23,520       19%      $4,56,83,51,561       
5      7,89,24,57,754       18%      $4,90,05,95,311       
6      9,07,63,26,417       15%      $5,12,33,49,643       
7      10,34,70,12,115       14%      $5,30,96,53,266       
8      11,79,55,93,811       14%      $5,50,27,31,567       
9      13,32,90,21,007       13%      $5,65,28,06,064       
10      15,06,17,93,737       13%      $5,80,69,73,502       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $15,81,48,83,424                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $48,56,89,59,786       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $1,21,94,64,43,546       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $1,70,51,54,03,333       
                        
Number of Shares:                  16,56,32,677       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $1,029.48       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $772.11       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   72%      
the Terminal Value:            

            

Thanks Septa.

_/\_