PNB Housing Finance Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 58)

Dear Nidhike Sir,

Everyone on this forum can see that we on different planets wrt the basis of valuation of PNB Housing ... and since it is obvious that this futile debate is heading nowhere ... therefore, I suggest that let us stop discussing the merits of valuations. Instead, let us take this to the next level ... and get more realistic !!

So, I shall give my timelines ... with targets

Price on 27th October >>> Rs.775/- (Issue Price)
Price on 07th November >>> I do not know (Listing Date)

Price by Christmas >>> Target Rs.1000/-
Price by Holi >>> Target Rs.1250/-



Over to you, SIR !!




Results are long remembered ... Methods are soon forgotten

Why would I turned to be a astrologer for a company or management which dont care about the small investors. I would rather focus on my energy on other stocks.

Track record of PNB stock performance or greed of current management (even no discount for retailer earlier envisaged) is enough for me to just ignore this now.

Btw I would like to know ur bullishness on PNB HFC is just for the stock or whole HFCs

price is high. better to aviod.

It''s stress time for loan against property deals

Ind-Ra says that there could be a sharp rise in 90 days past due delinquencies for some of the large players resulting in revenue losses.

Delinquencies in loan against property (LAP) extended by NBFCs could significantly increase in the next four quarters, says a report by ratings firm India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). The signs of early stress are visible in the LAP business loan pools assessed by it. Ind-Ra says that there could be a sharp rise in 90 days past due delinquencies for some of the large players resulting in revenue losses. A combination of stagnant property prices, especially in metros and large cities which are the primary markets for large and medium-ticket LAP, and a squeeze on refinancing due to risk aversion are bringing stress to the fore, it said.

Backed by some real data
http://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/its-stress-time-for-loan-against-property-deals/articleshow/54926777.cms

Apply its good company now inwards apply all ipo

All investors don''t apply for this iPo, let the management revise the price band to 400 - 500 level.

PNB housing fin diluting equity like public sector bank n asking price like top notch private sector finance company....kudos to bankers!!!!!

How many times have u seen HDFC or gruh or any good bank diluting 25% at once

Carlyle invested in 2015 @ valuation of 500 millions dollars n selling shares to public in 2016 @2 billion dollars..... 4x in1.5 year....juiced it quite well....kudos to Carlyle team!!!

If IPO size is 400 cr then no need for 25% dilution....3 year window is there.

Sir,

For Carlyle the average cost of acquisition is Rs.113/60

And they could have participated in this IPO as OFS ... but have chosen to not sell even @775/-

I consider Carlyle to be more astute than most of us here .. so if they are not selling @775/- ... then I am happy to buy@775/-

SIMPLE !!

Dear Madan
Thanks for your Rights Example. Your comment are clearly all confusion. And full force apply.

Avoid. Buy at 600 post IPO.

Nidhike Sir,

Maybe I am being ... Chotte muh ... badi baath ...

But, please consider this with an open mind ...

In the case of Can Fin
Expected BVPS FY17 = 396 & FY18 = 480
Whereas CMP is 1850/-

So if,
In the case of PNB Housing
Expected BVPS FY17 = 337 & FY18 = 380
then, what should be the CMP ?

With respect mam.nidhike sir is wright

Nidhike Sir,

I have disclosed this often ... and I shall repeat for your benefit ...

I am f/25 ... Mechanical Engineer by qualification ... and as such I have no formal training in Finance ... So I cannot be anywhere even near a CA

Further I am a fresh Graduate (passed out last year only) ... So I cannot even be compared to a Lalaji ...

So I cannot be a LTCA on any grounds ...

I wear my humility on my sleeve ... I am most respectful towards all and I have never (never ever) used language (or grammar) that is below the highest level of acceptability in parliament.

Although, I cannot say that I have been treated the same by this forum in the past.

Correct time to watch " THE BIG SHORT" , Complete story of 2008 USA subprime home loans.

Absolutely!!!!

FY17 EPS near to 31 so PE near to 25

This is not too highly priced ?? Isn''t it??

CARG,post P/B also in big favour.

Just compare RBL with it''s peers ( forgot about less NPA)....!!

It would beneficial for 1 lot or not

आओ सब मिलके PNB के प्रोमोटरों को दिखा दे की 30 के PE ratio पर आप IPO लाके Investor को मार नहीं सकते ।

हम इन्वेस्टर मुर्ख नहीं है कि 500 रूपये ग्रे मार्किट का लॉलीपॉप दिखा कर आप आईपीओ sucess नहीं करा सकते ।

आईपीओ में लंबे समय तक कमाना हे तो वाजिब दाम पर आईपीओ लाए ये प्रोमोटर के लिये जरुरी है ।

DHFL 12 के PE ratio पर मिल रहा है,
LIC Housing 17 के PE रेश्यो पर मिल रहा है
तो 30 के पी.इ. रेश्यो का नया कंपनी का शेर मुनाफा कैसे देंगा?

जब की सेंसेक्स का PE रेश्यो 18 ही है ।

*Strong Avoid*
Or
*Sell and Apply*

Circulate this message in all the other groups to avoid loss by small investors.

Investor एक जुट होकर
आईपीओ मार्किट में कमाये

और लालचु प्रोमोटर की आँखे खोले

*PNB हाउसिंग का EPS सिर्फ 27 है*
*और उनको 775 रुपये में शेर बेचना है ।*

My experience so far and suggestion:

RBL Bank - Strong apply
LT technology - Strong avoid
GNA Axles - Neutral
ICICI prudential - Avoid
HPL electric - avoid
Endurance - Strong apply
Varun beverages - avoid
PNB housing - avoid

ICICI prudential - Avoid!!!!

just wait and watch the magic

@Ghatol: May be it''s good for long term but insurance sector is just below average in India for now. And I looked for listing gains as well. I thought it will list around 315 so I have applied between 301 to 310 ☺

Pnb HFC @775 Clear Avoid as secondary MKT listed peer far better to invest right now.....listed space will outperform this new kid for sure.

Varun @445 short medium n long term Apply .....this new kid has no listed peer makes it even more attractive at this price n return ratio n future potential

Investment banker would really need to sweat it out to make PNB IPO a success.....if u become too much aggressive then ur fate can be similar to Yes bank QIP....should have learnt from past experiences

Think if Pnb list at discount to iisue price then it would almost kill the IPO MKT....ppl would lose interest in big size IPO....hope to see it listed at premium if it sails thorough for the future IPO mkt

HFCs rallied looking at the confidence n aggressive pricing of PNB....even HDFC looking so much cheaper than all these mid cap HFCs

Standalone EPS of 55 this year n consolidated EPS of near 70-75 available @1350 n also don''t forget its holding in HDFC bank, HDFC insurance n HDFC arm n lot others pride assets

L&t group started this trend of high price ipo''s, till then primary market was cruising along nicely, ppl made money, this fy

PNB Housing Finance Ltd IPO meeting takeaways

Total issue size Rs 3100 cr
Price band Rs 750 to 775
Dilution 23.45 to 23.95%
Fresh equity issue no OFS
Pre issue capital Rs 126.9 cr
Post issue capital Rs 167 cr
Pre issue Net worth Rs 2204 cr
Post issue net worth Rs 5345 cr (on upper band)

Company''s net profit growth was 61% CAGR for last 4 yrs. FY16 PAT at Rs 327 cr & Q1FY17 at Rs 96 cr

Company has RoA of 1.19% and RoE of 17.4%

NIM at 2.98% with lowest cost of borrowing at 8.65% led by high reliance on NCD 53% of borrowing,followed by deposit 25%, 20% CP, 10% NHB and 7% Bank loan

The company has 47 branches in 28 location with top 7 cities contribute 70% of business.

Geographic mix include 40% north, 30% west and 30% south.

The company has 62% Home loan,18% LAP,9% construction loan and 11% LTD and corporate loans.

The company has 70% Loan toward Housing loan and 30% toward Non Housing segment

The company has 45% self employed customers and 55% Salaried customers

Cost to income ratio stands at 25% and Opex to a good assets at 0.73%

65% of retail loans are for resale properties and rest is for under construction properties

The company has 85% of its book in retail remaining 15% in corporate

In LAP segment 85% customers are self employed with a age of 44 to 55 yrs and ticket size of Rs 54 lakh, LTV is 46%, and 85% are self occupied residential properties.

The company has 70% loans in variable rate

The company source 55% of business from DSAs

The company has around 1078 DST which company source from teamlease and on payroll of teamlease

The company has less than 10% presence in rural

The company has leverage of 15x which is very high

Asset quality of the company is robust with GNPA at 0.22% with NNPA at 0.14%. However 76% of the book has less than 2 yrs tenure since disbursement. On 2yr lag basis GNPA stands at 0.6%

Valuation : The company has book value of Rs 169 for FY16 which is 4.5x p/be Pre issue. Post issue BVPS is Rs 320 which is 2.4x and on FY17E BVPS is Rs 342 which is 2.3x p/be and on FY18 BVPS is Rs 377 which is 2x p/bv.

We believe that 2x FY18E Valuation is attractive considering high growth, professional management of Carlyn which owns 49%

However Return ratio are muted with equity Dilution, Asset quality risk may arise in future considering builder loan and 76% of the book is less than 2 yrs old.

Disagree

1.Decline in NIM is not the industry trend rather rise is the trend in the declining rate senario ...see the result which has cone out
2.not the cyclical industry so can look at qoq
3.beauty of bull MKT ....in 16 u looking at 18 n 19
4.can''t look at post IPO BV ....must look at pre IPO BV ....post IPO BV is misleading

As per normal investor view price band of 775 is too high and experiencing from price band company listing in past. So not showing too much interest and also not to miss the shares from growing sector so decided to apply 1 lot only and keep for long term. + - No of times sub will decide.

In the case of PNB ... I will be applying and not selling in kostak

In the case of Varun ... I will be applying only if I can sell my applications in kostak

Eagle eye I''ll listing time each time vanish and again reappear. So do not believe.
Judge yourself. This is new icici pru.

Already sell 2 kostak 750.

Investors need to tradeoff b/w
Quantum of growth Vs quality of growth for long term investment: Bharat Shah morningstar conclave

Any buyers in grey market or kostak in Mumbai , I will be selling my 5 applications of varun and pnb

Any one from Ahmedabad? Please let me know

Dear eagleye, please suggest me that i should apply for this ipo or no?
Its gmp is Rs 35 and kostak price is 500 what should i do. Should i sell my application in grey market or to hold for myself. Kindly answer my query.

pl reply
Eagleye ji I have same ????

Sale in gm35*19=665 and apply