PNB Housing Finance Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 55)

if growth continue it may reach 1500 in 2 year so applying pnb hou

i will apply and keep it for 2 yrs i not apply varun beverages

pnb hou i apply

What is the reason behind this mind change septa sir,, till yesterday evening u r in no mood for applying ...!!!

Thanks for ur compliment...i believe short term also good.

I believe everything is GOOD

Dear @Septa, @Nidhike, @Eagleye
First of all thank you for guidance on Endurance (although no allotment for me),
Can you all please give your final call on PNB HF IPO

Thanks in Advance

Just forget about peers...give it seperate valuation ..and check midcap price in our niFTY...

Nidhike 10% is not much for IPO u r 100% right. I buy more one it get listed or apply in HNI if the issue is subscribed below 10

BTW what made u think i do not invest in Secondary market. Percision Camshaftan IPO i was very very bullish but it was a catastroph applied under HNI brought from more more more many in forum cracked joke about my investment strategy booked a book loss of 1 million rupee with cross trade with my accounts for last financial year for tax benefits presently i am setting a good 4 million on black and IMO the game has just begun in case of PCL at 186 MC of 1600 Cr with market share of 12% world camshaft market and growing PE of 22 and growing double digit at least for next 5 years.

http://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2016/10/18/india-property-used-as-bad-loan-backing-may-be-worth-45-billion
India Property Used as Bad-Loan Backing May Be Worth $45 Billion

Anto Antony
(Bloomberg) -- The value of Indian real estate posted as collateral for problem loans could be worth 3 trillion rupees ($45 billion), according to a unit of India’s largest mortgage lender.

HDFC Realty has been approached to sell such property assets by three banks seeking to recover some of their soured loans, said Chief Executive Officer Vikram Goel. He declined to identify the lenders or give the value of the assets they’re seeking to unload.

Lenders are stepping up bad-loan recoveries as a March deadline set by the central bank to clean up their balance sheets draws closer. The stressed-asset ratio for the country’s banking system has risen to the highest level in at least 17 years, curtailing bank profitability and eroding capital buffers.

“Banks are approaching us for help with disposal of the real estate collateral due to our presence across the country and also as they believe that we have proper systems and processes in place,” Goel said in an interview last week at his office. “It is a good business opportunity for consultants like us.”

Goel declined to say what fees his firm would charge for disposing of the property assets. More than 50 percent of its revenue comes from advising on the sale of residential properties. The unit of Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. also offers consulting and valuation services, as well as the sale or leasing of land and commercial properties. The company has more than 400 employees in 19 cities across India.

HDFC Realty has been involved in selling distressed assets before. Earlier this year, the Securities and Exchange Board of India appointed the consultancy and SBI Capital Markets Ltd. to sell properties owned by financier Subrata Roy, who was imprisoned in early 2014 for allegedly defrauding investors. Roy is currently out on parole.

Goel said HDFC Realty’s current mandate is to sell 30 properties owned by Roy’s Sahara India Pariwar, which are valued at about 24 billion rupees.

HOW is NBCC OFS Should i do it for listing gain

Give me CARG of 65%

Otherwise

Don''t compare me with CHILLER CARG 15-20% ...

B/o........PNBHF


LoL

At a price band of INR 750-775, the issue is priced at 4.6x
FY16 P/B (and at 2.5x adjusted for IPO funds) which is attractive
given its track record of growth, stable return ratios and robust outlook
on the housing finance industry. Management conducted restructuring
of entire business which began in FY11 and concluded in FY16, resulting
into significant improvement of the business. The outcome was a robust
62% loan book CAGR over FY12-16. Though the company''s ROE is
lower (at 17.6%) than the industry peers (22.4%) however growth in
AUM has been significantly higher (62% vs 20-25% for industry).
Valuation is at a reasonable discount to its peers, when considered on
the post issue book value.

Can v apply pnb housing and varun?

Lot of investor are not aware that NPA in HFC is recognised only after 5 years maturity of loan. PNB HFC loan book is very new all thus 65% growth has come in last 2 years so more then 85% of loan book is below 2 years. SO that is reason NPA is low HFC is a good sector but PNB HFC at Rs775 will give limited listing gain better option available in secondary market. However growth is key here and market will give big valuation if they see big growth.

So reading RHP AND WORKING OUT EXCEL SHEET AND HFC SECTOR IN DEMAND I AM GOING TO APPLY THIS IPO NOT BCOZ LOW PB BUT THE GROWTH RATE AND NEW MONEY COMING IN THE ORGANISATION

AND MY BIGGEST FAVOUR IN APPLYING THIS IPO IS INDIAN HOUSING FINANCE IS STILL DEVELOPING WORST COME WORST IT WILL LIST AT 700 AND IF MARKET LIKE IT GROWTH THEN 1300 BY HOLI IT WILL LIST

CAUTION: finance is risky business default risk erode value faster then value it builds

So apply with caution

I have enough exposure in this sector, wish all the Investors GOOD LUCK.....
i will give it a miss

OM good on u mate it is always nice to hear RI making money. As i said in one of comment PBV was below 2 in most HFC six months back which were great buy. What really i like is ticket size of the loan 32 lakhs which account for 70%loan book and rest 30% ticket size 57 lakh.

I wished they came at Rs560 but equitas ujjivan RBI success we getting this IPO at Rs775

Also this additional fund will be like booster shot for already high CAGR of 65%

If someone have comfort & conviction on investing in PNB HF through IPO should even rethink twice, If you can go with PNBHF than why not DHFL much better on any front comparable to PNBHF . If you get 10% upside in PNBHF than DHFL will give 15%+ returns.

most are comparing PNBHF with HDFC, which is misleading & unfair.
1. HDFC have great sustainable track record in Housing Finance business.
2. forget housing finance, HDFC have many treasures in Balance Sheet
3. HDFC hold 26.21% holding of HDFC Bank
4. HDFC hold 42.5% in HDFC Standard Life
5.HDFC hold 60% stake in its Asset management CO.
6. HDFC hold 74% in HDFC Ergo General Insurance
7.HDFC hold 58.59% in Gruh Finance
Apart from these HDFC holds sizable stake of ILFS, NSE, RBL Bank & many more....

so guys just buy HDFC, No one is comparable here.....
Many value unlocking will going to happen soon....

@Om
But I myself dance like elephant n don''t like dancing like monkey :)

Good work Nidhike, Pls don''t take anything personal, I rate you very knowlegeble. 🙏

In my view value of its investments will arrive anywhere between 185k-220k Crs. As it has many unqouted holdings, businesses, strategic stakes, exact valution can''t be arrived.

Nidhike Your own research proving my point. Don''t forget investors getting it along with HF business.
HDFC have both value unlocking plus business Growth.
I again put my view to the Forum, :- Secondory market have better options than PNB HF.

please tell to subscribe or not SUBSCRIBE PNBHF ipo

On making a research on the net I find that there is no reason to change my first impression that the IPO pricing is aggressive compared to peers and it is actually priced based on future earnings in 2017-18 .So it may list at a small bubble over issue price or at a discount to it. Do not expect any great gains in short term. Strong positives are that the PB as on 2016 at 2.35/2.5 is lowest among peers with the exception of DHFL. This will further improve post IPO and expected to be 2 times. Company has a very low GNPA of 0.22% compared to its peers with the exception of DHFL which has 1.75%. DHFL exclusively finances small ticket business compared to peers including PNBHF. PNBH has an excellent and exceptional CAGR in recent times compared to peers. This growth rate may accelerate post infusion of IPO funds. This may or may not affect current GNPA. Probability of GNPA increasing is higher as NPA is a risk of compulsion for growth. Please take look at the table below:
Following data is as on March 2016 except for CMP (source RHP)
      EPS      PE      PB      RONW      Current MP      PE at CMP and 2016 EPS
HDFC      44.43      28.25      5.82      21.81      1358      30.56
LICHF      33.05      14.97      2.71      19.51      618      18.69
INDIABULLS      59.84      11.21      2.64      27.67      878      14.67
DHFL      22.59      7.93      1.13      14.63      332      14.69
REPCO      24.68      31.13      4.99      17.36      780      31.60
PNBHF      27.58      ????      2.5      17.60      ??????      
All high numbers are in bold letters and low in italics. Current PE is available in a financial website; please do your own calculation.
In every parameter DHFL has the lowest numbers including CMP. Its PE is much higher today if we take historical 2016 EPS. This I attribute to higher growth envisaged on account of massive fund raising via NCD and foreign flows. Market seems to have factored this in. If we take PNBHF IPO higher price band of 775 as MP, the PE on 2016 EPS works out to 28.10. Post IPO they will have more funds for future growth without any coupon payment as in the case of NCD. But the problem is PE of 28.10 is at par with industry leader HDFC (or the others) which has a much better RONW. These of course will get corrected post IPO. But the IPO price hardly leaves anything on the table for a RII who are looking at listing gain. In conclusion I would say PNBH is an excellent long term bet. A high risk taker can apply in IPO and others may buy post IPO.

good post,
LIC comes very close in comaprison with PNB
If LIC quotes at 618, with slightly better fundamentals, so at 775/- PNB is grossly overpriced.
Thanks Chitra for your efforts

Your assessment is very informative. But I still believe that the pricing of PNBHFL is very high and opportunistic of the management to fleece the new shareholders. The present share price, discounting & quality of top Peers like HDFC & LIC HFL is far better than PNBHFL who is pricing in the future at present. The management is acting like a greedy private sector promoter. Retail Investors should be causious and should take serious thought about applying

gmp of PNBHFL anyone tell.

700 per application

I observed all analysts, news paper, websites etc. comparing only P/BV for PNB. This is because it is low to peers like HDFC, GRUH, CAN FIN. Many more are comparing pre ipo and post ipo BV. Even more projected BV compared for 2017 and 2018. I think only BV is not a comparison factor. We can''t compare it with HDFC. I remembered famous quote "Kaha Raja Bhoj and kaha Gangu Taili".

Analysts forgot to compare real things like loan book quality, housing loan client ratio etc. PNB has more than 75% loan book only 2 years old. PNB has only 67% loan to housing loan segment. Housing loan is referred as very safe. Both these are not good compared to peers.

We need to understand PNB is new and loan book is only 2 years old. Obviously NPA is very less. That is nothing interesting. Another thing it is backed by Punjab National Bank. Management is as same as Bank. After all it is government. Management of peers is far better than PNB Housing Finance.

We are predicted price for 2017 and 2018 based on predicted BV for 2017 and 2018.
Why we can''t wait till 2017 and 2018 when we see actual nos.?

It is better to avoid this high price issue and see listing. I don''t see any much listing gain. Give time of 1 to 2 year to company. See nos. quarter by quarter and make decision afterward.

If you compare it on P/B method than DHFL should be qouted at 600-650
Biased ppl not comparing PNB HF with dhfl.
High Growth, consistent performance, Impressive Rating...
Buy DHFL from market & give a miss to PNBHF

IPO Should apply or not please suggest me & how the co.performance

After reading the posts, I find Nidhike and Septa analysis to be sensible and correct. You both are great and its a pleasure reading your views. Thank you and keep up the good work for the benefit of layman in finance like me . Will not apply in PNB :)

Lol ..@ the Negative boarders and their fuzzy logic to make the mountain out of a molehill that actually doesn''t exist.
Yes ..Had PNBHF priced the issue at A Million / Share, the BV would have skyrocketed and fetched them a laughably high Price based on such BV ..But who does that? Not even the likes of L&T promoters who are known to make the investors cost a world for the peanuts they are selling...
Come now people ..that 775 can''t just be a random number that hit the promoter''s whimsical minds ...Or do you believe they got it by rolling dice? :)))
BTW ..Which listed (LISTED - Thats the word) HFC trades at 3 /4 /5 times their BV PRIOR to their maiden equity issuance? ..
And then what about the intrinsic value based on the growth rate / cash flows that clearly make PNBHF stand a head and shoulders above all other Cos? ..
Well there is ample light around us to be able to see everything ..But then one must first remove the blindfold that''s stopping them from seeing the reality ..Or so I would love to believe...

Yes. I align with your analysis and biased towards applying for it.

Maniac the answer to your question "Which listed (LISTED - Thats the word) HFC trades at 3 /4 /5 times their BV PRIOR to their maiden equity issuance?"

The answer is all in fact 6 months all these HFC were below 2.

I want to sell 2 application in Ahmedabad. Any contacts ??

Loo, now Google is asking for contracts for selling application...ha ha ha

The Biggest Search Engine is also SEARCHING....!!!

HaHaHaHaHaHa