123.2. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 12:45:05 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@sonal/@chalak and anyone else: can you share your thoughts on why GMP is decreasing for Paytm? From unlisted market, people are having shares at 2400, 2600 etc and recently before ipo, it''s shares traded even above 3k in unlisted market, so if it will list around 2200-2250 then all will be having losses, right?
We are not operator so we can''t tell you why it''s falling but as per pattern look like zometo jo zometo ka 2nd day tha aur qib 7x ho chuka tha wo ek sign tha ke batting karni he.. I was blind bull in paytm before But now waiting paytm for 2nd day and last day subscription .. 😪🤕
123.4. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 11:47:39 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@chalak: yes in Zomato, I was confident of it doing good before even subscription started and it did well also. In Paytm, I was of view that GMP will increase going forward but it''s decreasing. I was having thinking of 10% gains in Paytm on listing day. Lets see how it''s subscription and listing will happen.
122. DuckkyDuck| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 1:24:43 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@sdz,noorul,lokes and anyone who apply in SME IPOs- Sorry this is off-topic but i have some query regarding SME IPOs. I read some of your messages in SME IPOs. I never applied in SME IPO till now due to a lot of risk and also broker doesn''t allow, but may think of it in future as alternate opportunity. My query is - How do guys apply in SME IPOs as HNI? Which broker allows that? I have ICICIDirect and Zerodha. ICICIDirect doesn''t allow SME IPO at all. And zerodha allows Only NSE SME IPO and that too only retail. So whats the best way/broker to apply?
@ Duckky .. applying in sme as hni .. the process is as similar as in mainboard.. any application over 2 lakh is in category of hni.. or in other words applying 2 lot or more.. And i m using kotak net banking where its alwys there is ASBA. One more thing for ur benifit. Don''t apply in any sme blindly or by any recommendations... Do well study before.. as d lot size is more than 1 lakh. Its all about circut game. Many people of this forum only hve been stuck in some bogus sme ipo.. that''s proved to b nightmare for them. Mainboard ipo just burn d fingers where as sme can burn ur hands..
you can apply in SME HNI category through ICICIBank site login icicibank site, click on OnLine Invest choose IPO..... you can apply any no of lots through it.
I to have never applied in SME but know this is the way.
122.3. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 4:00:13 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@duckky: sdz is not into sme''s till now i think. And whatever @noorul said is correct in case of sme''s , everyone should understand first about risk of these, only few sme''s turns out to be good ones. Me and @noorul joined sme''s around same time from last 2-3 months during prevest time. And @MRavi was already in sme''s before that and was taking part in discussions actively along with me/@dinesh/@GJ and others.
And in zerodha, we cant even apply in mainboard ipos also in HNI so its same in SME ipos, only difference you mentioned already that only NSE SME supported in zerodha in retail. So if icicidirect not allowing sme''s then you can use any ASBA bank to apply in sme ipos in HNI category, same like mainboard ipo''s.
@noorul: Enjoy your vacation buddy :) I will also take break for today now, enough of posts ;) :)
122.4. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 5:47:41 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
I never invested in SMEs as i don''t mind not earning an extra finger but not ready to lose my lovely hands/ legs 😂🤣
122.5. DuckkyDuck| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 7:49:42 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Thanks all for your replies and helping me. I completely agree with you all. Its alot risky to invest in SME IPO. I have studied past SME IPOs and share price falls and falls. Volume and liquidity it too low. I will think 100 times before starting SME IPO and not too soon. I have got my lessons learned in secondary market, when i had too much exposure in bad low cap stock and even used to buy penny stock. They go up with market, (in 2014 surge they all go up) but come down crashing when market corrects. After 2016 i dont even see penny stock. After that i mainly choose bluechips, large cap and midcaps in my long term portfolie. There are lowcaps too but only 5% of my PF.
@DuckkyDuck and others, As Lokes & Noorul mentioned, SME''s are very risky. However, those who like to enjoy once a while a high risk (or like a gamble) on SME''s (knowing risk of loosing 50% of capital), it worth give it a try with a good LM IPO''s. (and also need to be little more carfeul in selecting which one to apply) I have few investments in SME''s (my best being are BEW and Prevest - more than 5X). Those loss making are around 10-15%, few are at par. Overall its better than main board IPO''s (its just pure luck, nothing more)
I dont recommend for everyone, but for those who believe in luck and want to take some serious risk for high return.
It may make a difference, upto 2x oversubscription at max I''d assume. Since application wise it''s always lesser.
Many people hold their mandate, and many people apply for multiple lots if something is promising and undersubscribed.
Closer to or above 2x oversubscription, I''d say expect only 1 lot. 1.5x or lesser, you''ve high chances of multiple lots. So wait for last day, and decide.
I bought one share of Paytm in 2015 for Rs.8000. That one share had Face value of Rs. 100. It is still showing One share in my NSDL account. When will I get spinned off 100 shares? How long will they be locked up?
You shouldn''t make up your mind to avoid Paytm. Bias has a detrimental effect. All decisions should be based on calculations with a pinch of gut feeling thrown in. What if EVERYONE thinks the same and Latent goes to 900x in HNI... Then wouldn''t Paytm with a say lower than 10x in HNI give a better profit? End of the day, HNI application should be done with keeping profit in mind. Nothing prevents you from buying the share of the skipped ipo from the secondary mkt on listing... And if u have made MORE money in the other IPO, that''s just great isn''t it? This method might not work for someone who never sells the allocation and it becomes a part of his/her LT PF.
Irrespective of how many investors keep on discussing and sharing about "Expected HNI subscription", market will reign SUPREME and it will SURPRISE us. We all believe that we are the most knowledgeable ones but people who are not on Chittorgarh forum also believe the same.
Collective intelligence of investors may tilt on any direction and also towards any IPO. We will keep guessing till the IPO closes and how uncool this guessing may be.....it may turnout to be the best possible strategy in the prevailing environment.
Any "PRECONCIEVED NOTION" (Bias) definitely always has a detrimental effect more so in continuously changing (dynamic) environs......
119.3. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 3:36:42 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@M.K: Paytm may give more returns on investment than latent view but main thing is its riskier than latent view, means paytm can give less profit or even loss also, nothing is sure there but on other side latent view will surely give profit only, so i think @noorul is just playing safe without risk, similarly like he went on with nykaa and sigachi and skipped PB. And no matter how many of us will skip paytm and go to latent etc, still hni subscription number matters from other bigger players who put money in hundreds of crore so latent going 900X is just not practical.
Another aspect which many of us probably missed considering is Paytm will be closing first so each of us cannot have last hour strategy. One will need to decide about Paytm first.
US FEDs latest words have improved positivity in the short term and if there are no negative surprises from corporate India results.......there could be case of Paytm subscription gets a boost leaving lesser enthusiasm and money muscle available for remaining two.
I agree with lokes about latent view being the safest but question each one of us will need to be asking to ourselves.....Even if we believe in the potential of Paytm, does it worth to buy Paytm in the IPO or it will be better to focus on remaining two in the IPO and re-focus on Paytm post listing. ABSL AMC listing proved that even if a stock has potential for long term, it may not be efficient to buy the same in IPO for long term.
But never say never... If it was the sole IPO in the week, it would have crossed 900x for sure.... Now, we don''t know... All depends on Paytm and SF... If they go a little subdued, will easily add a few hundred X to Latent.
As mentioned earlier, will take a call post 2 pm on 10th. The discussions on these forums will help give a lot a clarity along with NII figures on the last day. Will apply in latent for sure, even SF too... If paytm GMP is low, might apply lower in that and apply more in the other two.
119.6. sbipo| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 9:27:55 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
@nurool, @jstm, @M.K, @MogPunisher, If someone has limited self fund for HNI, even i he/she excludes Paytm,which ipo to apply for from HNI categoryseeing last day subscription for most profits among Latent and Sapphire since Sapphire is closing on 11th and Latent on 12th. Want u peoples advice
Chalo paytm ki baat karte hai.. Paytm 2021 revenues = 3187 crores Paytm looking for a market cap = 149000 crores market cap to sales = 46-47
Flipkart ko lo comparison me.. FK FY20 sales = $4.5 billion (m thinking FY20 and FY21 will not be drastically different. I am not able to find FY21 numbers) FK FY21 mktcap = $37.6 billion. market cap to sales = 8 to 9
Even if I compare NYKAA? FY 21 sales = 2540 crores Issue price implied market cap = 53204 crores.. market cap to sales = 20
Is paytm so diversified that it''s demanding such premium valuations over others? Please correct if anything missed!
118.1. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 2:00:46 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
Except merchant payment gateway paytm is far behind their competitors and continuously losing market share to competitors. Every other platform based company i.e Flipkart or Nykaa or Zomato have strong customer loyalty and moat in their business whereas Paytm lost its ground after getting first mover advantage. It clearly shows that Vijay Shekhar Sharma is nor an aggressive neither visionary. We can''t bet by seeing big names in anchor book where we have better options available in this space i.e Nykaa or Zomato and many more to come in future on exchanges.
118.2. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 3:44:39 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@iamnimitshah : yes paytm is asking too much valuations as per his financials, but as i said earlier these companies valuations is not decided just based on their profits/revenues etc but based on their customer reach and future growth potential and market share of their business. While reading so many news, In market, there is lot of contradiction on experts views over paytm pricing/valuations and future business, some are justifying this thinking future growth will be there and some are saying future competition will make things tough for paytm. Paytm was leader in many business segments previously where so much of competition already came from other players like phonepe etc but then paytm has expanded his business into multiple other areas taking benifit of his huge customer base So no one knows how paytm business and share price will perform in future.
So all in all, the view is consistent that paytm is not good at this price... I wonder what the subscription will be... I would say looking by the falling gmp, it should not cross pb subscription levels!
118.4. ipo stonks| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 6:36:29 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@iamnimitshah Paytm has different businesses under it. It can list all different businesses independently also. And then the valuations can be justified. Ex: Stock Broking business it can list it as an independent entity. It’s Broking business is doing great. It sells insurance also just like policybazaar And the company is raising 10K crore of fresh capital which it can use to acquire businesses. Their Payment gateway business can also function independently. In short Paytm will be holding company under which there will be many different businesses listed commanding different valuations, justifying the current valuation of Paytm. Also when there are 100+ Big different funds investing in it (which means they are bullish on it), there will be very less funds or people who will be bearish (who will want the price to go down). I think there is no much down side even if things go bad in the secondary market.
@ipo stonks perfectly makes sense... But flipkart also has so many businesses.. FK has myntra (nykaa competitor) phonepe (paytm competitor) grocery (grofers, bigbasket, etc competitor) and even FK has many businesses to list.. but this all is future.. First paytm has to do so many businesses profitably before it can think to list all these.. It has immense value but whether it can create that is different question altogether!
117.1. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 7, 2021 12:49:51 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@jstm: it''s not his insane reaction after Paytm ipo approval. I have seen this news when it came, and this dance video is 3 years old actually and was just posted now just to represent his happiness after sebi approval.
Was reading a article on the size of this IPO and in the past when such a huge IPO was launched. The market has collapsed when with such absurd valuation''s , an IPO is launching. Fingers crossed. Don''t need another meltdown.
Aniket ji, A very very delightful n glorious Diwali to you all. I pray the God to enrich each and every one with great good heart, health, wealth, happiness. All the best to all of you. Thank you.
114.3. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
November 4, 2021 12:10:27 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
@ StockTerminator, Buy Akshar chem, SH kelkar, Nuclues soft & Mps ltd. Buyback for all are in line with huge price margin. All are good companies. Buyback size are small but I think, unaccepted share will also reward handsomly up to next Diwali.
Happt diwali AniketJi. Was waiting for you to seek advise on starcement remaining shares. Should be hold or sold? Thanks in advance.
114.5. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
November 5, 2021 8:53:30 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
@ mark bab, Cement sector will be in focus and demand for at least next 2/3 years. Although two of the quality midcap cement Heidelberg and Star is lagging and not participated in recent cement sector rally but @99 , there is no point to sell star cement. Rather add 10 to 15 % of holding at current level and wait for 6/9 months.
Aniket ji, Thank you very much for your kind reassurance as so many investors like me are not happy and very much disappointed with the current market price of the Star cements. Your kind views help us to regain the lost confidence. We are all grateful to you for your magnanimity in sparing your precious time and sharing your knowledgeable n experienced valuable information. Please continue to enlighten us. Thank you.
Did not participate in Star Cement Buyback. Can someone who has participated, share there profit and loss percentage from this specific share buyback.
114.8. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
November 6, 2021 8:55:20 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@ipo mitr: If someone would have bought it near record date then considering current price and acceptance ratio, this star cement buyback is little loss making deal. I was planning to buy for buyback but seeing the share price trend from last 6 months and after going through moneycontrol forum messages, I didn''t bought. This share is not at all performing from so many months even the sector has performed well. I bought eclerx for buyback and on 9th 10th nov approx, we will come to know acceptance ratio there but share price is doing good after recent results.
Moderator sir , I have a request for everyone if they can write GMP on ipo grey market premium page of all ongoing Ipo .
112. Kiaan| Link| Bookmark|
November 6, 2021 6:58:52 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Not related to this issue , but pls. advise whether one can put in more than 2 lac application in shareholder category, while applying in public category as retailer ?