Paras Defence And Space Technologies Limited IPO Message Board (Page 9)

Let us try to calculate your chance with an example:
Suppose 1000 lots are to be distributed in nii and overall bid in this category is 250 times.
Now say,
200 bids each for 500 lot - takes off 200×2 (1lac bid absorbed)
400 bids each for 250 lot - takes off 400×1 (1 lac bid absorbed)
Now 200 lots are left for allotment among 1000×250-200000 i.e 50000 lots
1) If average lot size of the remaining is 200 , no of participants in lottery will be 250
and your chance will be 200/250 =.8 =4/5
2) If average lot size is 14 , no of participants will be 3571 and your chance will be
200/3571 =.056= 1/18
But actually average lot size will be between 200 and 14 and accordingly your probabitity will remain between 4/5 and 1/18.
In most logical circumstances, if average lot size is 100, your chance will be 200/500= 2/5
In this case, I think bids will come in large , so persons giving smaller number of bids will have very good chance.
I think nii bids may reach maximum 500 not beyond that.But retail figure may surprise as it is a retail fancy stock. Subscription may go to 150 to 200 times reducing the chances to 1/150 to 1/200
Thank you

Big no

Nicely explained, Asoke Da....

Thank you Mr. Asoke

@ Ashoke Sarkar, say I have made 3 application in HNI for 15, 50 and 500 lots and HNI is 970x subscribed. Do you mean all my 3 applications stand the same chance of allotment?

Awaiting the reply from Ashok for knowledge transfer.

@ Avenue , Dinesh
Today I am busy with some job.
This is a case of - Harbori ki sadi kanpotti me sindur.
Sob log lag giya bid thene ki, jitna sambhob ho.
Now, all who have given bids less than 937 ,will come to lottery.
Who does not get but taken rupees with interest will face huge loss.
The answer of your question is yes. You do have equal chance.
I mention one more thing , this huge subscription will not much impair your chance of getting.
I will take up this case of effect of huge subscription on your chance of getting if I find time.
Best of luck

@avenue: considering NII as 900 times, your chances in your applications are as:

15/900 means 1.66 % in 15 lot application
50/900 means 5.55 % in 50 lot application
500/900 means 55.5 % in 500 lot application

And its 100% sure....no need to listen to anyone or any doubt....i have verified many BOA previously myself.....
in lesser lot applications, this percentage may deviate little bit based on number of applications received.....

I am giving you one example to explain:

for your 50 lot application, suppose 30 applications received then they will allot 2 lots to those 30 people means 6.6% , and then via lottery any 2 out of 30 will get 1 lot.....and why they giving for 2 people only from 30, this 2 is decided based on that 5.55% [50/900]....hope you understand....

@Lokes Thanks but I already know.
I was trying to correct Ashoke politely.

@avenue : ok :)
the way u asked him i thought u got a doubt ;)

@Avenue
I have no problem getting corrected.
Most politely , I ask relevant experts for arranging for allotment for the following
example in this case where overall subscription is 927 in nii category.
Bids of (odd number lot like )129 by altogether 1 or 7 applicants i.e 1 or 7 person has given bid for 129 lots. How the 129 bids will be settled?
I am eager to know the answer .

@Ashoke i am not an expert but with my guess the answer will be:
- 7 person bidding for 129 lots in an IPO with 927x HNI subscription, the chances are 129/927 = 13.9%. 13.9% of 7 applicants is 1. So 1 out of 7 will get 1 lot.

Can anybody confirm.

@Avunue
I got corrected. Also learnt something by this time.
Actually I am not any NII applicant. So this misconception.
Nii allotment is done creating domain. Some times arbitrarily.
Say 14,15,20,30,40, 50,80,100,150,200,..........
Generally seen that chance increases with the number of bid.but itis not always true. It will depend on the number of bidders in the domain. It may happen that in some domain higer bids have lower chance than the previou one. I have also seen that lower number bids also have good chances.
I have got answer to the question, I have put. It will be treated as per its domain.
In zomato ipo, in a higer bid domain there was only one applicant. Its ratio was 0:1
So the unfortunate fellow did not got any while on both sides probability was like 0.44. Now conclude.
Thank you