@ Avenue
I beg to revert to your original question relating to probability of allotment in HNI category. At the same time I deal with different questions as we find in this forum such as 1 ) in HNI one or 1/2 +1/2 2) 500 0r 15×33 3)one retail or 15 in HNi 4)one retail or 13
5)The ipo is not well subs , I should have got 2/4 but I have got 3/4 or 4/4.etc.
This is based on my analysis of allotment of seven Ipos. I have tried to do it with my little knowledge. I know there are many excellent experts in this forum. They should help rectify any error or misgivins so that it may be useful to other friends.
What I find
1. The registraror gives only sample basis of allotment .sometimes it look arbitray as the middle part is not available. It is concentrated on both ends.
2) In retail 83 to 93 % is single bid. Here also lot wise allotment is given. Only in some cases I have found any variation in ratio.
3) In HNI lot wise allotment is given proportionately (without rounding of) and fitting to the lower full number for distribution in lottery.
4) In the Hni category , I have seen application for lakhs of lots.
5) Generally chances with higher lot size is more but not always. Sometimes higher lot size has even zero chance .
I have taken some high subs ipo
Mrs Bector Ipo
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Fv=10, lot=50, Hni=620, Rii=29 , R: H =1:21 ,Retail allotment ratio=1:17 (29)
Nii allotment ratio - 14 lot=1:43, 15 lot= 1:20, 16lot =1:37, 17 lot =1:38, 106 lot =1:4,
160 lot =1:4, 350 lot =6:11, beyond no bid is shown
except high to very very high bids where allotment ratio is 1:1
Now you see in this case Retail ratio is twice more than Nii 14 to 17 , so R is better with much lower cost.
Instead of 160 lot where chance is 1:4, if 10×15 is given in Nii chance is 10:20 i.e 1:2, if 11×14 is given ,chance is 11:43 i.e 1:4. So, in this case higer bid has higher chance is not correct. Moreover, you have chances of getting more than one even ten or eleven which was the conception in the question of AVENUE.
So, in Nii give large large bids to ensure 1:1 if funds permit or give large number of one lot bid in Retail with lower cost.
Tatv chintan IPO
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FV=10 , lot =13, Hni=512, Rii= 35, R:H =1:15 , Retail allotment ratio = 1:23 (35)
HNI allotment ratio 15 lot=1:34, 16 lot= 1:34, 17lot =1:31, 18 lot = 1:31,19 lot =1:31
No intermediate bid record is available uptill in thousands and lakhs with 1:1
Now it is distinct that one R is better than N 15 to 19
And 15 R is 22 times greater than one N. Moreover in 15 R you have chance of getting more than one upto 15.
Rolex Ipo
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Fv=10, lot=16, HNI=360, Retail = 24, R:H =1:15, Retail allotment ratio =1:17.3 (24)
Hni allotment ratio 14 lot= 1:25, 15 lot=1:24, 16 lot=1:22, 17 lot=1:21,18 lot =1:18
No bid record is available from 19 untill very high bids attracting 1:1.
Here also we see that one R is 1.5 times better than 14-15 bids.and 15 R is 22 times better than one N with chance of getting more than one to 15.
Details of Mtar & Mazagon not available
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Shyam metalic ipo
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Fv=10, lot=45, Hni = 340, Retail=, R: N =1:29, Retail allotment ratio =1:7.75 (12)
Hni allotment ratio 15 lot=1:22 ,16 lot=1:22, 17 lot=1:15 ,18 lot =1:19, 19 lot * 0,
20 lot=1:16, 20 lot=1:16, 21 lot =1:17, lot22 = 1:16, 23 lot=1:13, 24 lot= 1:11
No bid beyond that is available until very high 1:1,
Here you see one R is 3 times better than one H of 15/16
So 15 R is 45 times better than one H of 15. With chance of............
Happiest mind ipo
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Fv=2, lot=90, Hni =351, Retail =71, R: H =1:5 (remarkably different),
Retail allotment ratio = 1:40 (71)
Nii allotment ratio 14 lot=1:25, 15=1:23, 16 =1:23, no bid record beyond this is available uptill in thousands and lakhs 1:1
Here you see one R is lower than 1 H
Still 15 R is 9 times better than one H of 14
Here performance of is not that pronounced as R:H is 1:5 in stead of 1:15 or 1:21 or 1: 29 as we have seen earlier.
So, it is a point to note that where R:H ratio is low i.e the the ipo is more retail fancy, the chance of R is not that pronouned as is seen in case of Hni fancy stock.
It may be noted that in case of paras this ratio is 1:9 i.e it is more a retail fancy stock.
Devyani ipo
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R:H =1: 5.5 And the story is similar to Happiest mind
Retail ratio = 1:26
1H14 =1:15 so One R=.5 H of 14
15 R =8 one H14
Clear sc ipo
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Hni= 206, Retail=9, R:H=1:23, Retail allotment ratio 1:6.25 (9)
Hni allotment ratio 14 lot=1:15, 15 =1:35, 16 = 1:12, 20= 1:10, 25 =1.8, 35= 1:6
40 lot= 1:5.5 , 50= 1:4 , 75= 1:2 , 104 = 1:2 , 125 =1: 1.6, 150 =1:1.36, 200 = 28:29
So picture is as earlier one R = 2.5 one H of 14 or5.5 times more than one H of 15
15 R 80 times better than one H of 15
Even 14 H of 14 is not much inferior than One H of 200
So. People giving lower bids with lower funds nothing to worry about. They have all the same may be greater benefits without interest headache.
Sometimes, people say that in not so high subs Ipo they gey 3/4 or 4/4while they should get 2/4. This is because the difference between bid as we and the actual bids. You are taking bid as 29 but the actual bid is 19 or 20. So chance will increase accordingly.
I will be grateful if this helps anybody anyway .
,
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Zerodha (Trading & Demat Account)
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