Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 35)

Hello Experts,
I have seen quite often that members are posting the GMP. Like Parag GMP 34 - 35 .
I didn''t understand what its mean and why it is important ?
How it is calculated? what is grey Market ? how it works and where ?
How it is possible to seal even before getting allotment?
i have so many questions to ask ...

Experts please revert back.

Thanks in advance :-)
Paladan

And What is Kostak rate?

Thanks Chakri Ji. This helps!

I attended the Parag Milk Analyst Meet today ...

Key Takeways were:
Price Band-220-227
Mcap @227 = 2100crs

# Parag Milk is an integrated farm to product Company
# Govardhan, Go cheese, TopUp and Pride of Cows are the 4 brands of the Co.
# GO brand was launched in 2010
# The Company has Pan India network: >3000 distributor, 104 super stockists and 15 depots
# The Company has milk processing capacity of 20lk litres per day
# Average daily milk procurement of 10 lakh litres per day
# Parag brand available at ~175000 retail outlets
# Each brand is positioned to get premium pricing, for eg. Govardhan Milk available at Rs.40/litres, Go Milk available at Rs.60/litre and Pride of cows available for Rs.80/litres
# The Company has 32% Market Share in Cheese market, Amul is the market leader with 40% Mkt share
# 2-3% Export revenue: Exports to around 26 countries
# Most Horeca and QSR use Go cheese
# Investment phase is over with, capacities are now in place to grow
# Targeted D/E is below 1x
# Pride of cows is only 1-2% of the total revenue
# B2B business no customer has more than 2% of revenue.
# 1/3rd business from fresh milk and skimmed milk, 2/3rd business from customer value added products, out of this 2/3, 10% of the business is B2B...i.e around 6~7% of total revenue from institutional clients
# No margin differential between B2B and B2C--- is what management indicated but hard to believe

Financial:
# 21.6% Sales CAGR over 5 years
# 9MFY16, EBIDTA margin is around 8.8% vs 7.6% in 2011
# 9MFY16, PAT margin is around 2.6% vs 2.1% in FY12
# FY16 PAT would be ~42crs, so Co. would be trading at 50X P/E vs Prabhat Dairy P/E of 45-46X

One critical observation on Parag Milk... Pastnoji has few products with "Go" word in it. Parag filed a case and Order has gone against Parag. So Parag has trademark for "Go" but no copyright... Means anyone can have "Go" word in their brand as long as it has a different logo design ...

Thanks for the info.

new to the group .
i have 3 lakh for the period of 15 .
kindly suggest , how many lots should i apply for the below IPO ,
1. Thyrocare Technologies Ltd IPO
2. Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd IPO
3. Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO

so that i can have best chance to get allotted

Advance thanks

Thanks Septa ,
so it is better to apply one lot each ...

Apply only 1 lot per application. Probability of allotment is higher. Try to apply as many application as possible in family members name.

What Should be the priority to Apply IPO.
1. Thyrocare Technologies Ltd IPO
2. Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd IPO
3. Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO

As I have not excess money (altogether I can apply for max 2 lots) so I want to use it very wisely. Experts please suggest the profitable strategy :-).

Thanks In Advance :-)

At retail level issue will be OVERSUBCRIBED so SINGLE LOT is best strategy Bcoz chance of get share is same so why tie up ur money

Is Parag Milk IPO worth to apply for 1-1 lot from 2 different demets accounts ?

Parag GMP 34 - 35

Any update on Kostak rate??

Dear SIr, Parag Milkfood Wale IPO me MINOR Applicant Apply Kar sakta hai kya ??????

grey market rate of parag milk foods????????

Milk business is very profitable. One of my cousins only learned up to 4th standard. He sold milk from his 4 ancestral cows locally for sometime and also did cow sales. Later on he went on for 10 cows, then 40 then 110. He went to kerala with all these cows and sold milk at double rate in the neighbor state. He used all profit to build a 95 lakh home with RO water, AC facility, solar power, and bought some acres of agri land. He will just find out a cow''s age and rating by opening and inspecting the teeth with bare hands. Visiting their place was disgusting with all their sounds and cow dung everywhere...for a city guy, They are now selling horses sometimes it seems, sometimes transporting via airline.

Now all agri products and milk i think are going to be in demand. Vegetables are no more 5 rupee 10 rupee business. Its upside down now a days, like agri people will earn more than IT people. Just a fundamental point on futuristic growth expectation.

Awesome

Nice...
There is nothing wrong with the business model esp when there is a consolidation wave which will be a tailwind for large, organized, players.

The problem is price. If we pay dearly & at the next quarter the earnings do not keep up then it''s all screwed up. So, a price which is at least fair, better still if it offers any margin of safety, is what we should look for.

We can pay up on the higher side but only for a business with impenetrable moat (high growth potential+ competitive advantage). Dairy players are basically dealing with commodities with some value addition here & there. They can at best have average moat.

Parag GMP 36 - 38

RKS & Septaji, thanks a ton! I am a person who is more afraid of losses than desirous of profits. So, instead of directly booking losses, I decided to go for covered short- I upped the ante by shorting at 259/- double the amount I''m holding at 271/-. The price currently is 249/-. My loss is 271-249=22 per holding share whereas gain per short=259-249=10 but since I''ve shorted double so effective gain per holding share is 20 per share. So, net loss 2/- per share plus I get to keep my original holding.

The only risk was that clarification by mgt could lead to a rebound in price but I just noticed some time back on their website that they are very defensive & are indirectly accepting their mistake. I''ll wait for some more time to square-off my position. I sincerely hope this works.

I know this is not sustainable. Tomorrow the prices may tumble again & it might become a vicious cycle.

Getting it right always is impossible booking loss is part and parcel of stock market shorting positional hold is good strategy

It worked (!) at least today because the news was not fully actioned by the market yet. Only 2/- notional loss at closing price of 150/-. So, I am covered up to this price but can''t do anything if it falls further tomorrow.

Sorry to bore u guys with these stupid details. It was my first intra-day trading experience...

Looking the dates herebelow .. one can infer that the Money blocked for Thyrocare & Ujjivan will be available for use in Parag



THYROCARE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED
(Refer Page No 383 of RHP dated 11th April 2016)

26/Apr/16 – Participation by Anchor Investors
27/Apr/16 – Bid/Offer Opens
29/Apr/16 – Bid/Offer Closes
04/May/16 – Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
05/May/16 – Unblocking of Funds from ASBA
06/May/16 – Credit of Equity Shares to Demat Account
09/May/16 – Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE


UJJIVAN FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED
(Refer Page No 237 of RHP dated 13th April 2016)


27/Apr/16 – Participation by Anchor Investors
28/Apr/16 – Bid/Offer Opens
02/May/16 – Bid/Offer Closes
05/May/16 – Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
06/May/16 – Unblocking of Funds from ASBA
09/May/16 – Credit of Equity Shares to Demat Account
10/May/16 – Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE



PARAG MILK FOODS LIMITED
(Refer Page No 363 of RHP dated 21st April 2016)


03/May/16 – Participation by Anchor Investors
04/May/16 – Bid/Offer Opens
06/May/16 – Bid/Offer Closes
11/May/16 – Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
12/May/16 – Unblocking of Funds from ASBA
13/May/16 – Credit of Equity Shares to Demat Account
16/May/16 – Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE

Thank u

NO BODY LIKE EAGLEYE,SEPTA AND OTHER NOT ANSWERING THAT PARAG PROFIT MAKING COMPANY LAST 5 YEAR AT LEAST LAST 3 YEARS THAN WHY RETAIL PORTION IS 10% ONLY NOT 35 % ANY ONE CLEAR IT

The Sebi profitability rule states an issuer should have an average pre-tax operating profit of at least Rs 15 crore for the last three years, failing which it either has to list on the SME platform or carry out an IPO with increased qualified institutional buyer (QIB) participation of 75%. For such issues, the retail and high net worth individual quotas are 10% and 15%, respectively. For IPO that didn''t have a three-year ''profitability'' track record, RII portion lowered the retail investor quota from 35% to 10% of the issue size. operating profit and other source of income will be deducted in this calculation.

Hope this answers why with even profit for last three years only 10% is offered to RRI

Thank you septa ji... making us to learn

PARAG MILK FOODS LIMITED
(Refer Page No 363 of RHP dated 21st April 2016)


03/May/16 – Participation by Anchor Investors
04/May/16 – Bid/Offer Opens
06/May/16 – Bid/Offer Closes
11/May/16 – Finalisation of Basis of Allotment
12/May/16 – Unblocking of Funds from ASBA
13/May/16 – Credit of Equity Shares to Demat Account
16/May/16 – Commencement of Trading on NSE/BSE

Parag''s consolidated revenues and operating profit have little over doubled to Rs 1438.7 crore and Rs 108 crore respectively in the five years ended FY15. The operating margin, which has remained fairly stagnant at 7.5%, is likely to improve in the quarters ahead - thanks to new players like ITC and M&M. This implies increase in its spend on advertising that currently stands at 2.5% of the revenues.

The issue values Parag at 44 times of its FY16 annualised earning per share of Rs 5.12 per share. The company''s valuation of Rs 2000 crore also stands at 1.2 times of its annualised revenues for FY16. These valuations are fair when compared to its larger listed peer Hatsun Agro Products which is trading at a PE of 57 and at a market cap of 1.5 times its trailing four quarters revenues. Retail investors can consider investing in the issue to partake in the growth of the dairy industry - thanks to the addition of new corporate players and increase in per capita consumption of dairy products.

Hello Team and friends.. what are chances to get an allotment for thyrocare if apply for 3 acct.. 2 presell and 1 for risk in thyrocare

GOOD to apply at this price band of Rs 227 , subject to good QIB subscription

showing profit slowly

milk industry is an profitable business as on now

Rajiv ji,dr.lal again 1000+ ,book profit or wait for 1100? In 1month

AT RS 1000 DR LAL IS COSTLY RS 850 TO 875 IS GOOD BUY

Do u require money? If not hold for long term. However, to be safe sell a part of it at present rate. Let''s say 1/4 of ur holding. The stock is good. It will move more. Great stock with huge potential.

WHY SEBI NOT PUT BAN ON ARTIFICIAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ROCE SHOWING CO LIKE PARAG MILK IPO ?

Avoid this IPO. Not worth. Too insignificant a player and many issues with the company.

My own experience of this companies product when I was in Pune and wanted pure cow milk for home. Third class product. Seemed like goat milk. Too thin n no cream in it even though use to bring single tone milk. Quickly changed over to Amul. Similarly for ghee. Bought once n thereafter threw the can away. Utterly useless ghee. Bought Patanjali ghee thereafter. That''s the product description for u. Chor company. Its presence in big cities of Maharashtra is also negligible. Hardly seen any of its products on any counters of any shop. Bogus company. A big avoid.

We had similar exp with their Ghee :)

A word of caution in this IPO. Be aware. Its better to avoid this IPO. Reasons are high valuations. Every stock can not be compared to peers and applied for. Sometimes being practical also helps. Gowardhan is a little known brand outside Maharashtra. People rather prefer Vadilal, Amul, or Patanjali. A sector which has such strong contenders in the market, it would be difficult for Parag to grow at its present rate of growth. Only positive is a discount of 12 Rupees. Its better to avoid this IPO as there r plethora of stocks available is primary market which can give handsome returns. The money that u r going to apply in in this IPO can be put in Indusind Bank n see ur money grow in one yr for handsome profits.