Paradeep Phosphates Limited IPO Message Board (Page 12)

Actually this IPO is become a victim of Rainbow and Lic poor listing. Had it come 20 days before the story would hve been different. IPO players are in fear of loosing more money... the wounds of Rainbow and Lic are still so fresh.

I will surely apply here in Shni category and probably this is the first time I don't care about listing gain.. will look to hold it for one year time frame.

What I m looking here I think many haven't noticed.. all the peer of PP have given multifold return like coromandel international, Deepak fertilizer and chambel fertilizer. Very remote chances of going below to 42rs.. company gives me comfort on valuation basis and past performance of fertilizer sector is also encouraging. In a nutshell it's a low risk high rewards kind of bet.

Thanks norul ji for ur reply👍

@Noorul
Aren't Pradeep phosphate and Mangalore Chemical and Fertilizers from same adventz group and of poddar family?
Adventz group owns both companies.
MCF Ltd past is not as glorious as other fertilizer companies.
PP which acquired Goa unit has lowest Ebitda/ton i.e 1500/ton whereas 5400 and 4900 for Chambal and Corromondal respectively and we are financing loss making takeover that too same promoter.
Nothing seems to be cheaper here if we dive down in details.
I admire your knowledge and views.

@Noorul.. clear thoughts, no fuss, as always...
My concern is poor to average subscription. As you said earlier everyone getting allotment is a red flag and here too if subscription is 4-5x, I expect a flat listing with a good selling pressure from retailer applying solely for selling at listing and shnI reducing their 14 lot allotments etc. I agree this being a good company and may be a portfolio stock, but if subscription is poor to average 4x, one can limit IPO application to some extent and consider buy post listing. May be a case study since we don't have much information now a days. Off course if subscription is good, I am ready even to play blind. Venus allotment would have helped in some way but we will not have it in time. Lets decide tomorrow...

Darr ke aage jeet hai!
Aapada mein avsar! :-D
Can't forget what happened with the IPOs like Gland Pharma, Sona BLW, KIMS, and more recently Ruchi Soya FPO.

PS: Not applying ;-)

@ValueSeeker
Except Ruchi Soya all others were bull market IPO and even Zomato made money during that time.
Ruchi Soya and Adani Wilmar prices have no relationship with fundamental or valuation.
They are of powerful people and that is enough to drive their price.

@Amit Chheda,
with present market conditions, its a gamble. I gambled already in this🤞. (with already falling US markets / SGX nifty tonight, this may go just get subscribed only, not multi fold)

p.s: since cheap valuations available in secondary market with unpredictable falling market, I feel any IPO will be under pressure from now on. only high risk and long term investors may participate now, my personal opinion.

@Avenue,
Congrats...👏👏👏 you fully deserved to be a 'guru' long time ago. You are one of the great person in this forum, i always look for your posts and more importantly cherished many of your signature posts with great sense of humor, all the best man.

Thanks

I always use sbi asba even for 3rd party..never faced Any issues.
All recent allotments are through sbi asba,
Campus 2 lots 1 3rd party
Lic 4 lots 1 3rd party.

If it's a joint account check who's the major
holder

Also the error you are describing generally comes when u use 3rd party upi.

I was using SBI ASBA through net banking for 3rd party applications. However, recently, it did not allow me to do it and I got the message as you mentioned. So, I switched to YONO Lite app which is allowing this facility. I used this app for LIC IPO and got allotment also for 3rd party.

@ Dear kjain. This massage show that your pan no. Not properly registered in your sbi saving bank account. Also I face same problem in campus ipo.please visit your sbi branch with copy of your pan and update your pan no. In your savings bank account. After this your problem is solved and you able to apply with sbi asba via net banking.this massage only come when your pan no. Not updated in sbi Saving account. This problem accur after the day when sbi stop 3rd party asba with net banking.

Thanks for opening this thread....👍

i think no HNI and QIB interested in this IPO

Congrats @Avenue on becoming a IPO Guru.
I find you the most polite, sincere and kind person on this forum... And most important always a partner of mine in times of earning and loosing money.. 😉

@Noorul,
Next it will be you to become IPO Guru, mostly by next week. 👍

@All,
This forum and the forum members has helped me lot . Thanks to all .
Hope that current dust will settle down soon and back to good times .

Happy Investing

@Noorul.. Thanks I noticed this Now 😎
You would have been too before me, had you not reduced your participation.. Please share your views the most you can. I am here because of you and many other experts who helped me understand this IPO business. I confess that I am not at all a finance guy and largely depends on your and other experts remarks on financials. Thanks to you and all other friends who have been sharing knowledge and experiences for mutual benefits.
I am ok with any Tag or even no tag, just I do not want "New member" Tag. These tags bring more attention, more scrutiny and one has to be more careful.
Best wishes to all...

Please correct me if I am wrong...
I feel the Sad state of IPOs, that not even a single IPO in last two months, after Ruchi soya, has been able to maintain the listing price. All of them, whether listed with premium or even at discount has moved downward and are presently trading below list price...
And I am worried that this trend may continue for some time... I am being more watchful now...

@Avenue ,
Empyrean Cashews and Veranda are exceptions, however many members from this forum didn't apply on those including me,

As you mentioned many are hovering near IPO price/ below listing price. Need to be more watchful.

Any guess on subscription?
Can we say it is good to apply if subscription cross 5X in HINI/QIB (any one)

The concept of unregulated hni funding had pushed lot of ipo buying with free money last few years. Ultra hnis used to get big funds and grey market was super active and gmp used to setup at 50% and above. QIBs and big/ultra HNis were happy because they were alloted alot and they can sell on listing to retailers. Lot of demand by Retailers post listing, as they were unallotted.

Now with new rules, no game of ultra hni fundings and no game of 50% -100% gmp. Retailers and shnis are getting good allotments, which operator and qib and ultra hnis are not liking. Since they have less allotments , they prefer to open ipo lower. Basically ipo markets are driven by qibs, operators, ultra hnis and with new rules, they dont have anything on plate.
Its just a start of new rules and currently has no clarity where it is going. If with old rules, every new ipo would have given some profits. Campus, hariom would have listed with 70% returns. Rainbow 20-30%.
For us retailers, shnis... we have already burnt hands in rainbow. We need to change strategy for time being.. to buy post listing.. rather than apply bhni, shni and burn like in rainbow. we should have threads like - "post listing entry strategy thread".
For now i may skip all the ipos. Even venus seems can list in disc with low gmp of 20-30 rs. Even this paradeep ipo also seems possibility of disc listing 5x hni is not good enough.

@snipperRaj Agree to your points

@snipperRaj ,
I don't think any change happened to QIB (except for anchor). The new rules are impacting only 15% of total shares.
I think the current market condition is playing a lot.

@S.Raj
I concur with your post above, and yes listing game has completely changed so we can't follow the old/same path, for modestly subscribed we should not apply blindly, leap of faith sometimes can be injurious, we should also post listing strategies too as you rightly suggested, regarding venus, it's gmp is still positive and thus our hope is alive, may be we can cover some losses of rainbow from venus.

Regarding this PP issue we should apply cautiously, i am considering to apply only in retail (if there is some hint of demand- which yet to be seen upto second day) and no appl in shni.

@snipperRaj ,
I missed the operator part , which definitely have some impact as you mentioned.

Need to be more cautious in applying. I think this time many sHNI applicant prefer retail , similarly bHNI to sHNI

In my view, we are not getting good listing gains due to 2 reasons.
1) Market is in bearish mode and current run is pullback rally which will reverse anytime.
2) Big HNIs are no more participating by leveraging which are impacting subscriptions. Also, they are not ready to buy on listing date.

I think things will become more clear in next 2 to 3 months and we should keep our case safe instead of jumping on any penny stock.

Coming to PP, I think HNi will goto 5x....and listing gains will be 10% if market is stable like this...

One thing we all have missed in the recent IPO ( retail as well as HNI ) is to apply at the lower end of price band ( appx. 10% difference )

@ravu. No change in qib but QIBs have operators in it. Operators are pushing ipo opening lower.
Market conditions are also negative n bearish. Also america going in recession is being talked about. It is also impacting ipos alot.

@k.atar. ravu.. Yea, shni may apply retail. Bhni may apply in shni. For now for sometime, retail applications would be good way forward. Avoiding shni, bhni for now.. secondary market appear much better for now...

Yes
Abhi secondary mkt me koi bhi script me easily 5/10% mil jata he
Like mapmy india abhi 1150 tha now 1320
Aur lic and rainbow apply karne ke baad bhi mila kya😏
And abhi roz uspe watch rakna padta he ke kab badhega

@sbipo.. I sold all my lots of rainbow today at 467. Booked a gud amount of loss in it. No issue.. profit and loss are the part of markets.. no one can book profit each and every time..

About pardeep porsporate I find it a attractive issue.. with healthy balance sheet .. but this subscription figures not matching my expectations anywhere near. I think listing of Lic and rainbow snatch all the charm of IPOs and left the people hopeless .. I will apply here few lots.. how many will decide tomorrow.

Sometime it's better to book loss.

Paying hefty price of staying invested in gls and windlass biotech.

Guys would like to say that we should not rush to apply here in paradeep (same that we did in rainbow, and upto some extent in LIC), time demands that we should be very choosy from now on and to look every facets of ipo (other than fundamentals), viz. demand/supply and market mood.
i 'MAY' apply here (final decision on last day afternoon only).
Please guys be careful.

Noorul i wish u make good profit in coming ipos

@sbipo...Primary market has lost its shine due to recent market volatility and allotment unclarity. Many investors have had unpleasant experience in Rainbow, LIC and many more... Even some good IPOs have not given deserving results. Promoters have also become more intelligent and manipulative. Unlike earlier times, now every IPO low has risk of upside and downside movement post listing and one has to decide how much risk one can take further for a maximum and probable listing gain of 10-15%. I think in current times risk - reward ratio is compromised, meaning more risk and lesser reward. On the other hand Secondary market now seems otherwise - lesser risk and more reward.

I also sold almost half of my allotment in rainbow at good loss and almost all of LIC at par. Till no clarity on subscription I will apply half heartedly in even good IPOs, including PP tomorrow, that too after seeing decent participation...

Itna sannata subscription figure dekhke he
Not even 1 time in any category

@Krupa.. earlier we used to say HNI/QIB come on the last day. Now they don't come even on the last day.
And whatever HNI comes we don't know are they small or Big :)

Bhai, In khatarnaak dino mein koi to HNI Thread banaa dena...
kuch to help milegi aur time bhi bachega...

Agree with K.Attar.
We should be careful in applying any IPOs.
Looks like this is calculated move by SEBI to reduce euphoria in IPOs. Also, secondary market are looking better in terms of risk reward ratio when compared to IPOs

@Avenue
Yes
Gmp also down from 3 rs to 0.70 paisa
Lagta he ab 15 days me double to bhul hi jao 10/20% milna bhi muskil ho gaya he
Thoda daring karke apply karte he wo bhi niche open hota he

Please name 1 - 2 IPOs in last 2 months, after Ruchi soya, which have sustained listing price (with or even without listing gain) ???
?

Hariom pipes

@Krupa.. Mera matlab tha ki kaun sa IPO ne apne listing price barkaraar rakha hai, listing ke baad aab tak...

Hariom Pipes I think listed at 220-230 aur aab woh bhi usse niche hai.
Shayad...

Source link for IPO grading

Apply or not your views please

What was CRISIL Grade for Rainbow and LIC IPOs?
I tried but could not find...

I tried to search document for CRISIL's rating on this IPO but was unable. Does CRISIL really evaluate IPOs?

@Surana ji,
This Crisil rating is for this IPO Or for debenture of Paradeep phosphate.

IPO grading is voluntary.
Yes, CRISIL also grades IPOs, and its analysis is the most credible of them all.

ganesh jaiswal . Read https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRationaleReport?Id=104683 this article. It is the debt rating A with negative implications by ICRA. But read the Credit challenges section and information there about effects of ZACL's Goa plant acquisition.

But the document filed with SEBI says, they didn't apply with any agency for IPO grading.

@Surana ji
If you are referring to https://dmerharyana.org/paradeep-phosphates-ipo/, it has lot of incorrect info. Check the price band, promoters, everything is wrong.
So one can ignore the grading mentioned as well.

@ B.M.SURANA Please share the link of CRISIL.

@IPOInput Ji,
The ICRA link of Paradeep Phosphates you cited has credit rating of A in all the debt categories. it is not a negative category, since ICRA has C and D rating for complete negative rating.

ICRA rating A : Instruments with this rating are considered to have adequate degree of safety regarding timely servicing of financial obligations. Such instruments carry low credit risk.

ganesh jaiswal. Please read my post again. Rating is A but with Negative Implications (Which means the rating can be revised downward.)
The report is titled as - Paradeep Phosphates Limited: Ratings continue to be on watch with negative implications

CRISIL grade doesn't matter always

So early . UPI is a niche way to apply.