Oriana Power Limited IPO Message Board (Page 7)

You have 0.5% chances...be positive

Allotment in hni category in sme's is proportionate basis so more the number of lots you applying better the chances of allotment. In sme, minimum allotment is 1 lot. if you have applied lesser no. of lots than final HNI category subscription then your allotment is based on lottery depending on how many other applicants are there for same lot size.

Lottery happens for each lot size separately in hni category where lot size is lesser than total hni subscription. Allotment probability is:
(round off of (applied lots/HNI subs)*no of applicants.) / no of applicants. And round off happens to next number above 0.49-0.55 approx.

Lets understand with below example taking hni subscription of 252X for this ipo and your lot size of 56 lots:
if 1 person applied with 56 lot then his chances are 0 {round off of 0.22 [(56/252)*1] } so he won't be allotted and there won't be any lottery.
if 2 people applied with 56 lots each, then chances are 0.44, it rounds off to 0 again no lottery and no allotment to anyone of these 2 people
if 3 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 0.66 , it rounds off to 1 so lottery will happen to choose 1 person to allot 1 lot from these 3
if 4 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 0.88 , it rounds off to 1 so similarly 1 person will be allotted 1 lot from these 4 via lottery
if 5 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 1.11 , it rounds off to 1 so similarly 1 person will be allotted 1 lot from these 5 via lottery
if 6 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 1.33 , it rounds off to 1 so similarly 1 person will be allotted 1 lot from these 6 via lottery
if 7 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 1.55 , it rounds off to 2 so 2 person will be allotted 1 lot each from these 7 via lottery
if 8 people applied with 56 lots, then chances are 1.77 , it rounds off to 2 so 2 person will be allotted 1 lot each from these 8 via lottery

So if someone is alone applicant for that lot size then his lot size needs to be above 50% atleast of hni subscription to be allotted means if someone applied here 130 or more lots and he is alone applicant in that lot size then he will be allotted 1 lot almost sure.

Hats of to you sir, @lokes

In short we can say it’s pure lottery for Main Board IPO but it’s lottery cum Probability based (Probability increases with higher no of lots one applies) The only problem is if yours application is sole(1) in that category then you may lose the chance of participating in lottery itself if it’s less than 0.50 times of subscription times. Hope it clarifies the situation.

@lokes Great admirer of you the way you explain the things to queries posted. I or many other members could have answered him but the systematic manner you answered it, I really appreciate your efforts.
But since some time, there is lot of influx of new age investors into the Chittorgarh forum, they have so many queries and so less patience. They want everything then and there. The person who asked this query might not have read your reply since it was after 3 days. If he did, he should have acknowledged it.

PS. I have been regular passive visitor here since long (>10 years) but joined formally only recently.

@lokes Thank you so much for explaining so beautifully. Also, YOU and some other respected members take time to reply and provide their feedback which really helps us to decide and sometimes save our money. & Thanks to @Admin @ Chittorgarh.com team to provide a platform where everyone is getting benefitted.

In retail section it is lottery or proportionate in SME ?

Thank you @lokes.

I really appreciate your time and beautifully explained. This is exactly I was looking for.

@captaincurious. We should make a what's app group , what say

@lokes Thanks sir for explaining the case in SME HNI, for main board IPO - for bHNI is it a simple lottery irrespective of how much above 10L one applies or does the proportional rule apply in case of bHNI category as well e.g. one applies 69 Lots and another applies 90 lots in bHNI main board will it be simple lottery in case of heavy oversubscription ?

@Lokes. Thanks sir. How about retails and transfer of quota of retails to hani vice versa. Please clarify sir. Thanks

@lokes Very nice explanation 👌 .it's good that experts share your knowledge with budding investors. Thanks alot

thanks everyone...
​@SNDV in retail, its lottery always in sme and mainboard....and anyways mostly its only 1 lot application in retail in sme due to bigger amount in 1 lot...
​@Boyani  Regarding share transfer, it's simple that whenever there is no separate qib quota in sme ipo, means only in fixed price sme ipos , if retail subscription is more than hni, then final total subscription should be considered for both retail and hni category instead of individual category subscriptions....this wont apply when there is QIB means in book built (price range) ipos and also its not applicable when hni subscription is more than retail in fixed price ipo...
this rule is basically to provide retail more benefit in allotment when retail demand is more than hni in fixed price ipos....for example, in innovatus, allotment in both retail and hni category was done considering approx 104X subscription.

@Stock Trek  in mainboard bhni, in good ipos where total bhni subscription is crossing 7-8X then mostly it can be considered that application wise it will be more than 1x , then in that case, bhni allotment is via lottery for all lot sizes irrespective of applying 69 lots or 90 lots or 900lots....but catch here is that if you try for higher lots and there are not enough participants (50% of expected app wise bhni subscription) at that lot size then you may not be considered part of lottery also so better to stick with minimum lot size application in bhni since its separate lottery at each lot size.......
But if total bhni subscription is 4-5X or below then it will be minimum 2 lakh of allotment to everyone and then remaining shares will be allotted proportionately.

@lokes Thank you, so if i understood correctly - lottery in bHNI will be at each applied Lot level and not open lottery where all are considered equal like that happens in Retail, so applying slightly higher than entry point will possibly make sense as at minimum level there may be many apps, but as you rightly suggested going too high may not be a good option as well.

@Stock Trek yes u understood correctly.
No , this line doesn't make sense : "so applying slightly higher than entry point will possibly make sense as at minimum level there may be many apps"
Because at all lots size, allotment ratio will be similar almost, it may vary little bit on both sides depending on no. of applicants....so no point in going for higher lots.....many apps doesn't matter....16:263 ratio is almost similar to 3:49 or 13:210 or 7:109 etc so more or less apps doesn't matter much, all about luck....

@Lokes sir. Thank you for explaining rules and ratios for over subscribed SME and main IPO.

Thanks @lokes this was indeed very helpful

@ lokes sir. SBFC finance applied retail 13 lots. Allotted one lot. Thanks. So again confusion apply 13 lots or 14 lots in future. Thanks sir . Hope for 50 percent jump. Thanks.

No guaranteed allotment, decided by lottery and your luck.

मुझे भी बहुत पसंद था, लेकिन मैंने याद से आवेदन किया ही नही, क्योंकि पसंद होने में और अलॉटमेंट मिलने में काफी अंतर होता है।।।।।।

Noted.

@Rohan Bajaj 
If suppose this ipo HNI is subscribed 270 times then is that minimum 5 application is required to get 1 allotment with chance 1/5, because 54/270= 1/5? How much lot will be allocated here?
If there is only 4 applications then all 4 will not any allotment?

@rahulkrjain For 270x, at 54 lots will require minimum 3 applications to get eligible for the lottery.

Have applied 54 lots from 4 accounts.

Thanks @MVP and @Rohan Bajaj 
I got that least 54*3=162 is greater than 270/2=135 so for allotment atleast 3 applications are required.
Rohan as u applied 4 lots then why u want more people to include in 54 lot group as this will lower ur chance. Just wanted to understand the logic behind.
Suppose only 4 applications are there by rohan then whats allotment chance for this 4 application, is it 4/3~1 mean 1/4 or 2/4 ?
And how many lot will be allocated?

Applied shares ko total number of share subscribed se devide kroge aur 1200 (lot size) se jyada aayega to 1 ko allotment 2400 se jyada aayega to 2 ko allotment ye mene observe Kiya he boa pr se aur baki ke extra shares sab allotees ko baat diye jate hai

Missed this due to website outage, great initiative @Rohan Bajaj , would've loved to join, had put single HNI application of 50 lots hoping others will join as it's even number.

@Rohan Bajaj how many lots did you get under 4 apps of 54 lots?

@AAA JAI 1 Lot