NTPC's performance has been impressive since its listing in 2004, the stock has quadrupled, outperforming the Sensex and leaving private players like Tata Power behind. However, valuation gap between the company and its peers is likely to come down owing to the increased risk appetite of investors and NTPC's track record of capacity addition. With the government willing to sell its 5% stake, pricing the FPO at Rs.201 a share, there is practically nothing left on the table for investors. Importantly, given that the money is not flowing into the company, but into government coffers, it does not materially impact the PSU's prospects.
FAIRLY PRICED BUT... In market volatility, there is a chance of NTPC falling below Rs.175. It is trading at a premium to its historic one-year forward average P/E of 17 times and price to book value of 2.2 times.
Investors may expect a target of 234 over one-year, as the entire power sector captures the growth momentum for the next few years and valuation looks stretched. Also, NTPC may lag behind private players such as Tata Power, R-Power, Adani Power & JSW Energy in terms of growth, largely due to lower base of private players. Thus, as discounting will be faster in case of private players and capacities will get larger, they will start looking cheaper. However, the stock is a low-risk play. It is a defensive stock within the utilities space, given that it underpeforms relative to the power index in a rising market and outperforms in a falling market. While the outperformance may not be high, the downside risk is equally low.
Notice no : 20100218-49 Notice date : Thursday, February 18, 2010 8:13:17 PM Subject : Newly allocated equity shares of NTPC Limited in the Further Public Offering (FPO) through offer for sale (Scrip Code: 532555)
Trading Members of the Exchange are hereby informed that the under mentioned securities of NTPC Limited have been credited on February 18, 2010, with the beneficiary account of the successful allottees in the FPO.
Name of the Company Securities Distinctive Nos. Scrip Code NTPC Limited 41,22,73,220 Equity shares of face value of Rs. 10/- each fully paid-up issued by way of Public Issue. 6967361181 to 7379634400
532555 FPO Issue price per share:
QIB - Rs. 202/- to 211/-
Non Institutional Bidders - Rs. 201/-
Employees – Rs. 191/- Date of Allocation
February 17, 2010
These shares are ranking pari-passu with other equity shares of the company.
Trading Members may note that the shares given in Annexure I, are not transferable till the date(s) mentioned against them for which necessary corporate action has been carried out in the depository’s records, as confirmed by the company. Trading Members may further note that Exchange vide notice no. 20041102-15 dated November 02, 2004 , had granted listing and trading permission for 8245464400 equity shares of the company, which includes the equity shares offered through aforesaid FPO and hence no separate trading approval is required for the newly allocated equity shares.
In case the trading members require any clarification, they may please contact, Nitinkumar Pujari on 022-22728398.
Among the recent IPOs I subscribed to and got shares allotted, are India Bulls Power NHPC and NTPC, to name some.
At 11 a.m. today, NHPC shares (IPO price Rs.36/-) were quoting @ 32.15, i.e. a loss of 10.69%, whereas India Bulls Power shares (IPO price Rs.45/-) were quoting @ 30.30, i.e. a loss of 32.67%. This parity in negative price performance has been more or less consistent since the respective shares were listed.
We must not lose sight of the fact that the public sector NHPC has a credible track record of execution of power projects, though admittedly that record could have been better, in contrast to India Bulls Power, a toddler and a novice in this game.
So far, even in the NTPC follow on offer, the prevailing share price for the already listed earlier IPO, has not ducked the issue price of the follow on offer priced at Rs.201/-. The performance of NTPC is too well known and exemplary to warrant repetition.
I therefore feel that the breast beating by some investors on their investment in NHPC and NTPC is therefore an exaggerated criticism and unsustainable as will be proved in the next few weeks.
What is relevant in my view is the observation and disappointment with poor Retail investors’ response to the above PSU IPOs/FPOs expressed by Mr.Arun Shourie, the Minister who spearheaded disinvestment in the NDA govt.,