Now people ask with all humility I have applied for 107 lots do I have any chance of allotment. And actually person applying for 107 lots has a meagre chance of getting allottment.
Respected seniors oversubscribed SME IPO me Retail ka ek application lagane par allotment milne ka chance rhta hai ya nahi.? Ya sirf block unblock ka game hai.
Mostly Retail is block unblock as it is lottery system and there is no control example 1:634 but for HNI allotment based on proportion anything above 50% ipo size reached then 1 allotment is fix. Example 50 people applied 10 lots the 1:50
98.2. Basuvr| Link| Bookmark|
July 2, 2024 11:41:43 PM
IPO Guru (2000+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
@Sunilbha You will never know when the lady luck will work
98.3. IPOFreak| Link| Bookmark|
July 3, 2024 12:04:52 AM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
In retail category, If Registar = Bigchor, then 0% confirmed allotment. No luck lady work in this case 😁 If Registar != Bigchor, then 1/RetailOversubscription% allotment chances. Luck lady is active and may work in your favour. ❤
98.4. IPO.RIKI| Link| Bookmark|
July 3, 2024 6:34:12 AM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
I dont understand why everyone is blaming bigshare... i got most allotments in bigshare only (in mainboard ipo ofcourse).. i m a very small middle class person with no pehchan of big people... still i got maximum allotments in bigshare, & its the finest registrar giving fastest allotment by 8 pm
If you have funds only for 1 lot The best option would be to create an fd and use that to apply in ipo Keep applying but never loose hope luck can shine anytime I remember when I used to apply with 1 lot only I got an sme in >400x issue and it made in 225%gains So keep applying Best of luck
98.6. MVP| Link| Bookmark|
July 3, 2024 3:09:04 PM
IPO Guru (1400+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
So I was building a model to understand basis of allotment and improve my chances of allotment: SHaring my findings for the members to comment:
..Ah.. still can't upload images. .. it pathetic. This can not be explained without images... but in summary
calculation done...assuming from 10 - 500 applicants in the same category lots..
If I had applied 20 lot application, I would need atleast 40 applicants in the same category (i.e, 20 lot applications ) to be eligible for lottery .. then my chances would be 1/40...
unless I have 50 lakhs plus to apply .. it's not worth it to apply in HNI., even with 54 lakhs ... my chances would be 1/20... that is still dependent on lot of luck.. I f I have 2 cr plus and 4 demats.. my chances would be 1/5.. which is much better.
Better use of funds.. apply in retail and invest in secondary market until you gain sufficient money to try SME allotment. Till then .. enjoy whatever you can get in retail lottery.
96.1. CJ ROCKS| Link| Bookmark|
July 2, 2024 5:19:52 PM
IPO Mentor (800+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Unknown Man Yes sir 👍more amount means more chances of allotment in SME space specially in HNI category. Most of us we don't have enough money (in crores). So we apply in retail category. Thanks for your theory and it has to be implemented and try out luck. That's why we see many members reiterated I have applied this much lots "PLEASE JOIN ME".SO I think this theory is working in HNIs category.
If you have 2cr better to apply a single lot you might end up getting 1 lot for ipos with 75% GMP
96.4. KGSKIPO| Link| Bookmark|
July 2, 2024 5:38:13 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
A student in statistics can do a doctorate regarding the allottment and sell it to customers to maximize allottment. Is there any AI Program where I can feed many BOAs and get the results
96.5. MuStrFc| Link| Bookmark|
July 2, 2024 6:32:22 PM
IPO Guru (2900+ Posts, 2300+ Likes)
@KGSKIPO So much is there but too soon for something like this to get developed which requires access to closed-end data, even though so much of it is claimed that its all transparent, fact is its not
@Cyberdude in such highliy subscribed IPO,, 2 lots become eligible when you have minimum 360 people apply 2 lot applications... then chances will be 1/360
The two factors that are big unknown are - overall subscription and number of applications in each lot category. Hence it is very difficult for small HNIs to get allotment..