And we have seen the unreliabilty of GMP. According to current GMP listing should be anywhere between 535- 540. However, its better to be cautious seeing listing and the GMP gap between the recently listed IPOs.
Septa need ur comments. What is so good about the new aviation policy that the stocks are rising. I have gone through the whole policy and find that the policy would severely hit the profits of existing airlines severely be it the fares or cancellation charges or overweight luggage charges or the penalty and compensation to fliers by the airlines if the flights are delayed beyond certain hours depending on the duration of the flight. Only positive is the change to fly internationally on the basis of 0 n 20 which earlier was 5 n 20. The cartelisation that the aviation companies were carrying out to mint money any crooked way possible is no longer possible. I see lot of headwinds for the sector and believe the prices would fall atleast 10-20% from here. Whats ur view. I would also like to know the views of everyone including Uchit Patel, Eagleye, Scanner, IPO Tracker, Pinky Jain, Abhinavgupta, MP Jain, Gamble n anyone willing to contribute.
245.1. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
June 15, 2016 11:04:14 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)
Try laying your hands on some reliable data on the projected growth in air traffic ... and superimpose that with a stable fuel price scenario ... and probably you''ll find your answers
245.2. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
June 15, 2016 11:14:14 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)
The recent Aviation Policy reminds me of Ronald Reagan ... he said: "The government''s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."
I believe the growth in passenger traffic can not be a proper criteria to a healthy aviation sector. Also, fuel cost is a variable which is also heavily taxed. So both criteria become unreliable. Its difficult to see how the airlines would make profits in such scenario. I m still searching for a reply which can justify the movement of these stock post aviation policy. I m bearish on them for the long run.
I am not tracking or investing in aviation stocks. It''s very hard to make money in aviation. You will find more than 80% aviation companies in any country running under huge losses. It''s hard to find SouthWest airlines from stones.
Where is the tip top gang and why he is not giving his opinion on mgl since we know them they get activated on the date of listing and started blah blah blah against the respected members who atleast gives their contribution in the forum to their Maximum strength in best possible manner ..........
nothing is personal here but the members of this forum needs the Advisors before the listing of the issue not the post listing of the issue when even a layman knows about the result of the ipo.....
so...members of this forum are waiting for their advices also ......
Very true Abhishek. I wish people were more mature like u. Here some people gang up with such people like Mr Tip n start trolling a few members who r trying to give their contribution it be either an IPO or the primary market. Very sad state of affairs.
Interesting statistics Indraprastha gas ipo was in 2003 Dec, Price band was 40-48, On 26/12/2003,listed and closing price was 119.2,on that day. Source bse, Don''t think such growth is possible now in this sector.
I don''t think Rs. 119 is the closing price of igl on listing day 26th December, 2003. I bought at listing time on that day from Rs. 90 to Rs. 95. If it closed at 119 then I was the first to sell my position.
You are right , now we will not see this type of listing gain in MGL. We need to wait for few years 3 to 5 for good returns. At the max we will get 20 percent gain on listing.
240.4. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
June 15, 2016 10:21:26 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)
Uchit Patel Sir ... Grey market is currently trading @30% premium to issue price ... So are you expecting it to be a losing proposition for the grey market buyers ?
Eagleye, I expect at the max it will trade at 17 times eps. IGL is well established company and trading at the range of 17 to 20 times eps since last 1.5 years. Before this IGL was trading at lower level under Rs. 400 for almost 5 years from 2009 to 2014.
Utilities companies never show robust growth. It''s profit margin is also steady because of strict government norms. Once gas prices will up we can easily see pressure on profits. MGL needs to increase it''s residential lpg supply. But it will cost billions to set infrastructure. For MGL it is not possible for next 5 years.
I think FII and DII will prefer well established IGL or Gujarat Gas compared to MGL.
Dear Uchit Patelji, Pl check bse site - equities - historical data - igl, 119.25 is shown in as first date of trade of igl on 26/12/2003, i''ve checked for the whole month of Dec 2003 If Mgl lists at +125 as suggested by gmp, imo, it will be fully priced, and should exit.
i have been buying this counter and also said the same in forum present EPS is around 8 which will grow at 20% CARG meaning we could safely assume in two years time a EPS of 11.52 even at 15 PE a price of 170 is possible with industry PE of 17
Past 5 years diluted eps 2012=31.21 2013=30.28 2014=30.15 2015=30.54 2016=31.36 Flat growth is seen. Taking into account the issue price, something is left on the table for investors, compared to its peers.
i am from navi mumbai where this company is only option for cng cars and i have seen half kilometer long waiting line on their cng filling pumps and demand for cng cars are rapidly increasing and auto rickshaw and cng taxis are using their filling pumps and state transport buses which runs on cng are using their pump growth potential is huge with this company here no other player is present and demand for cng is very high so subscribe this stock buy it as many as you can