KP Green Engineering Limited IPO Message Board (Page 5)

Now 3.
Latest, and lowest so far.

Increased to 7.

10

12 now

14

Link on this site shows 5 Rs

​@Ascension The link is updated with the interval of probably may be an hour or so, that is why the difference!! It is not really live..😊😊

​@Vimal Garodia : So where are you seeing live ?

Kahaa dekh rahe ho bhai ?

everyone is increasing the GMP by 2/-. 100/- thak leke jaavoge kyaa kal subah thak :-)

No guarantee
Only lottery
Luck

Anyone applying 48 lots or more will get guaranteed allotment of one lot plus additional lot ( as per lottery).

Eg : 48 lots - 1 lot
72 lots - 1 lot or 2 lot ( depending upon lottery). One out of two will get two lots.

​@rohiitian Respect for you..you are true daredevil..No GMP no sentiment affects you and your analysis..
Wish you luck..

​@Tejas Pandya Thanks bhai, easier to do when I'm willing to hold select allotments for long term - this is one of those. Plus QIB coming for 1200 Cr is very good, as good as some of the best IPOs in recent months.

​@rohiitian sir, slowly becoming a big fan of your to the the point and analytical reasoning.

To be honest, I too didn't find many flaws with KP Green except for valuations, which is subjective.

The fact that you have applied adds credence to my conviction.

Thank you so much sir for everything.

​@rohiitian 2 accounts of yours where u applied 39 lots and were thinking of confirmed lots will also go to lottery. As for confirmed lot one should have subscribed for at least 49 lots based on closing subscription figures. Even I was expecting subscription of 35 to 40 times in NII category.

As u have subscribed from 5 accounts still getting 2 lots is a possibility.

​@Lokesh Chiru Yes, when I applied subs was still 23-24x. Didn't expect such a rapid climb at the end given size of issue. Still I think if my 2 apps are the only apps in 39 lot category, then I should get both lots. If there are 3 or more apps, then will definitely be lottery.

Applied 8 lot 7 application
Can i get at least one lot or not as per your experience

​@rohiitian How do you decide the split of application, want to know how you arrived at 39 lots or 8 lots. I understand at the time of your application the subscription was less than 40times in bhni? Just curious to learn here.

​@vipul sonthalia Function of how much capital is free in each account. Chose 39 over 40 because many ppl will apply 40 lots, and it will go into lottery if HNI >40x, but fewer might apply 39 or 38, and I can get assured allotment if I'm the only one in that lotsize and subscription > 40x but < 50x. Would suggest you study a few BOAs to understand the specifics so you can optimize allotment probability

Allotted 2 lots (from both the 39 lots apps)

​@rohiitian Allotted 2 lots ?? Is allotment status out buddy ?

​@rohiitian congrats on allotment and your strategic calculations.
so the conclusion is if HNI is subscribed lets say 50x
so the one who applied for 26 lots, will get the allotment for sure..
please correct if i am wrong ?

​@Redhu Jind Not exactly - if you apply 26 lots, you will definitely go into lottery (i.e. every lotsize that's >0.5x of total subs will enter lottery). If you are the only one in 26 lots, then you will get assured allotment

​@rohiitian 
considering the same example, yes, if only one person is in this category of 26 lots, then he/she will get the allotment of single lot..

considering your example. you applied for 39 lots from 2 accounts. total subs is 48x.
then how you get allotted in both accounts ???
please explain for better clarity..
thanks in advance,

​@Redhu Jind Basically if only 2 lots applied (in this case, I have applied both), then both will get allotment because 39*2/48 =1.6, which is rounded up to give 2 lots of allotment in the 39 lot category. Similarly if 3 ppl applied, then 39*3/48 = 2.4, which is rounded down to give 2 lot allotment again; which means 1 person misses out, and other 2 get. If 4 ppl applied, then 39*4/48 =3.2, which is rounded to 3 lots of allotment, so 3/4 would get and 1/4 would miss out. And so on.

​@rohiitian So does that mean that if 100 people applied for 39 lots then 39 * 100 / 48 = 81.25, so 81 applications out of 100 (in 39 lot category) would be be selected for allotment ?

And similarly, if 100 people applied for 5 lots then 5 * 100 / 48 = 10.41, so 10 applications out of 100 would be selected for allotment (in 5 lot category) ?

Not trying to question you buddy, but trying to understand. Thanks.

​@Esparando Correct

​@rohiitian Thanks a lot for making us very clear about it.
all the best for coming IPOs.

​@rohiitian Fantastic buddy. I mean, I learned something today though I am not going the HNI way due to funds.
I am very confident that at least 60-70% people applying in HNI category may not know this formula. Now by sharing this formula, did it not cross your mind that you are reducing your probability ? I mean, when people get to know this formula, they will do their math and then apply, which could improve their allotment chances vs applying blindly without understanding the logic/formula.

I know once should share knowledge but at the expense of reducing their own probability ? Not sure which way is right way but a big thanks from my side buddy :-)

​@rohiitian 39/39/8/8/7... these were your applications..which would have required 1, 21, 20, 000/-. Even if this lists at 5% premium (which is the GMP on final day of issue), since you got only 2 lots allotted, you would make 12k profit and post short term capital tax your profit would be 10, 200/-.
This profit on an investment of 1, 21, 20, 000/- is a return of 0.08% (lets say this is for 3 days since from IPO last day till money unblocking day it is 3 days), which is about 0.8% per month and which is about 9.6% p.a.
And this is best case scenario. What if 20 people applied for 39 lots and you got no allocation (bad scenario)

Knowing this kind of a return & risk beforehand, what made you go for this IPO buddy ? Or you believe listing gains could be much higher than current GMP 5%. ?

​@Esparando  I believe sir has mentioned he will be holding it for the long term based on his analysis and conviction. Also, in this allotment let's say it lists at 5% premium but for some other IPO if someone gets an allotment it might list at 100%+ premium too. Also, with such lots as 39, 39 usually people opt for money multiplier or auto-sweep facility to earn deposit returns in SB account. So, money would be accruing interest until any lots are allotted.

I hope this makes sense  
Am I right sir? @rohiitian

​@ROAR IPOs where 100% premium is possible, you need to invest much much larger amount to get 2 lots in HNI (1.2 crore will be nothing). May be 8-10x more. On your other point I may agree to some extent (getting savings account return of 6.5% in IDFC First bank saving account and anything on top of that would be bonus).

If the position is for long term, then I guess one would buy it in open market on listing day (since GMP is only 5% on closing day).

Anyways, @rohiitian has so much of knowledge in this game so I definitely think he has more valid reasons than what I can think of.

​@GrayIsTheNewBlack great sir. Once again yours and @rohiitian sir's views converge.

Beeline 🚀🚀🚀
My all applications are open too.
Nahi mila kuch toh bhi gam nahi he.
Heads & Tales me kabhi to apna luck aazmaye.

On final day also DII (bank insurance and mutual funds) are far away from KPGreen
Avoided.

​@Smile✍️ DII have been avoiding all issues in last few days - cannot draw any conclusion. No DIIs in Enfuse also today.

@rohitian
Yes I assume my risk appetite is very very smaller than DIIs. While applying any SME, I judge genuine QIB in terms of DII. So when they are absent I remain calm. In enfuse they are.

​@rohiitian @Smile✍️ Hello sir, please tell how do you check whether Mutual Funds/DIIs an FIIs are applying in QIBs or not in a particular SME ?

Krishnamurti
Just go which plot form is going to open the IPO in SME BSE or NSE there you can see ipo status there you can check