1. What should Investors follow, Fundamentals (like EPS, etc.) or Technicals (like trend-lines, oscillators, etc.)?
Stock Price moves on the basis of demand and supply for the stock. Technical Analysis studies the “effect”, i.e. the price, without wanting to know the “cause” of the price move. By the time the fundamental cause of the price-move is known, it is usually too late for a profitable trade. One should, therefore, follow only Technicals.
Eg: Petronet LNG giving buy call since 3 days. You watch, after few days, the fundamental reason for its upmove will be known. By the time you take view on fundamentals, price of this stock would have moved so high & then, there would be little upside & more downside. You are lucky if you get profit after rising so much.
2. Is Technical Analysis meant only for short-term traders ?
It is only a misconception that Technical Analysis is only useful for short-term traders. These tools, in fact, enable us to look much ahead in future.
You can apply technical tools to any time frame - 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 3 year, 5 year ... & so on. You can apply not only for equities, but also for bonds, commodities, interest rate futures, currencies, mutual fund NAVs etc.
To IPO analyst: Thank you for letting me know that I know atleast something about PE and EPS. Is there any other terminology you would like to explain me? I understand, you must be a CA or an MBA from IIM, this would be great learning experience for me. By the way, what fundamentals you emphasize to evaluate? just PE? Do you do your research on paper or verify with substantiate facts? You did not answer me on substantiate facts by an investigating audit, I guess, you know audit well. I guess you stuck with PE and so you reject JC, that is fine. 20 days is fine, it is obvious, any IPO on its listing, struggles to retain its price, and fall, there nothing special analysis you providing, so likewise this one will too. In reference to the said quotes, what I meant is current ups and downs will not affect company's business. Now is that very complicated for you to understand? If the businesses are so much worried with daily valuations, they may not even function the way they do. I am a long-term investor and such fluctuations does not bother me. By the way can you please tell me which stocks you analyzing? In past couple of years, how many recommendations made?
It is Rs.30 worth issue. Neither its business is sound nor its issue price is attractive.
As issue size is small, in case Operators are able to garner shares, they may jack-up price. To bet on this, investors should have applied in small lots.
Some investors talk of visiting plants & even cracking their EPS / PE & financial jagger-nets. But remember, market moves on technicals / sentiment. By the time you take call on fundamentals, there would be little upside & profitable trading is tough or almost impossible.
So you know EPS and PE everything...fine...then here is your message posted previously..
Quote...
Nothing going to happen to JC Ms. Rani. Somehow I got caught up on this board on Analysts issues. I felt the Analysts were not fair towards JC IPO. They didn'nt even cared to go into depth of the issue and were just came outright advising negative about it. If this is the case, it is not future for India. Our country has came a long way, do not submit to these bunch of analysts, who dont even care to visit the plant and see things by their own, and just happen to sit in an AC room and trying to justify something of which they are not even aware of. As I said in earlier postings, I am not here to recommend anything, I would be happy if you guys do your home work and decide which is good company to invest, dont become prey of these analyst. I would just make a point, only one person here, who was not at all convinced with this IPO of JC, has decided to visit the site, and then he reported, I am talking of Mr. Arun Kejriwal, who took his time to visit the site and then he reported. My question is how many genuine analysts are there out, who really care to visit and see facilities and then comment? There are plenty like Mr. Tulsian who just sits and looks at figures and give their opinions.
In present situations, I do not think any IPO going to loose or gain with ups and downs in recent times. IPOs always based on strong fundamentals, and so is JC will survive despite all odds.
Unquote :
So now tell me on what basis you are supporting JC.
If you can tell on what basis you said that JC is based on strong fundamentals and good.
Please explain.
Now tell me if you have guts to take on me and explain the rationale behind your statements.
Every one knows who is fooling investors. Any way just wait for 20 days, every one will know the fate of JC.
Good luck Mr. Krishna, please feel free to short as many shares of all those entities you mentioned, on their debut listing. Just make sure you have enough balance in your account to cover margins, or cash. If I come across any position with any global investment banking firm, I'll definitely recommend you. It seems you so genius, you already know the listing prices. Good luck.
To IPO Analyst: I didn't heard anything from you. Do you really read what I post here? Or you just dont understand what I meant?
To be specific, I am not here to recommend any company to anybody, nor here to recommend negative on any company. What I noticed, the people like you, who claimed to be geniuses, have no clue whatsoever about the companies coming out with IPOs, and start giving your absurd stupid avises to public. I understand your anger, people rejected your advises back and and forth. I am glad, India is all about people at roots.
However, let me cautioned you here, I am here to rip off analysts like you, it would be very easy to rip off middle class, who have no knwoledge or deptth of the issues, but what I know is that it takes A WHOLE LOT for an average indian family to invest. All these years, you guys have prospered on their investments only, you have made them fool on each and every aspect, just because of your special interests involved. I am alerting all investing communities here, to please be aware and do not be prey of such so called highly acclaimed analysts, who they think they are geniuses. In fact, they are making on your hard money you invest.
Jindal is offering its stock at 50PE on fully diluted basis. Such stocks are available at 5PE in maket. 1/10th valuation. If mkt tanks now this 75Rs. stocks will easily trade at Rs.30 and really bad scenario, it may touch Rs.10 also.
To IPO analyst: Do I have to answer what is PE ratio means? now you'll even ask me what is EPS? etc.... By the way you said in your previous postings that I am here to fool? Well I am not an analyst to give advices like you do. I didnt't claimed which is good stock and which bad stock, nor I'll do, since that not my profession, I did, I just defended the opinions of some crook analysts like you, who just believe in analysing something on paper, not going by the facts. Fooling people is your job Mr. IPO Analyst not mine. Who determines price of an IPO? How does that derived? Can you please let me know your past advises on stocks so I can figure out your accuracy? If you are that expert, can you please give your comment on Globus?
To Mr. IPO Analyst. Can you please elaborate how a price of stock is determined in an IPO? What are the criterias you considering? Secondly the prices yuou mentioning 100 and 150, I dont know from where you get these figures. Its not something you think and apply. You may even now think of 200???? Thirdly, what does a price of a stock reflects? I am trying to understand your methodology.
This is Response to IPO Analyst: I dont understand what point you trying to make here. I am not sure, if you have heard about investigation audit? inspection audit? Visiting sites by an analyst is to make sure and verify facts and figures the company is claiming. If an analyst cannot get confirmed physically what company is company is claiming, then everything will be on paper only. It is not that visiting sites, and like those sites looks good or bad, it is verification inspection. Make sense?
I dont know what you talking about Reliance, I referred to their initial IPO, the then no body even knew what reliance is? and who Ambanis are? Now they are top billionare's lists on this planet. Its a total different scenarios you trying to mix.
However, which companies you are covering? I would analyze them thoroughly and get back to you, please name me.
You can invest 25% of your capital i.e. if you have Rs.1 lakh in your trading a/c for IPO subscription, then invest Rs.25,000.
Reason is: -
1. Although it is over-valued, issue size is small. Chances of Friends Circle / Operators garnering shares & jacking-up is one possibility.
2. Investors are pessimistic due to poor listing of Adani Power & NHPC. When most investors are pessimistic, there would be good chance of getting listing gain.
Market moves on technicals. When analyst give buy call based on fundamentals, there will be little upside & more down-side.
Now most investors are pessmistic on this issue, so there may be good chance of decent listing. But apply for small lots as betting on pessimic carries some risk.
JINDAL COTEX and GLOBUS SPIRIT, see you on the day of listing in the secondary market. I thought of applying initially, but ADANI POWER asked me to THINK TWICE and NHPC told me to SHUT UP AND KEEP QUIET.
Just applied online for 2 lots of Jindal Cotex IPO. This is just for speculation and not for investment purpose. at whatever price on listing, I will sell if allotted.