Apart from other shortcomings , the biggest drawback of IRB IncIT post listing would be the market lot , with 5000 units as market lot , the minimum value of a single trade lot , would be 5.1 Lakh rupees ( If lists at par ) . It will have little liquidity.
Red flags: Total loan book of Rs. 36386 with only 30.86% to housing sector, 69% to infrastructure sector. Housing sector is counted as safe as compared to infrastructure in industry. Housing loan book is low. Total 89.93% of loans to Government. It’s hard to get money from Government projects especially infrastructure projects i.e road projects. Housing loan to individual (retail) is less or zero. NPA is high. Company needs to work under Government influence. Company can’t work independently. Company need to work under political pressure.
Green flags: Last three year financial nos. are good but not excellent. Asking price is reasonable – P/E -14 and P/BV – 1.3. Company’s line of business is aligning with Central Government’s main policies like – home for everyone. Central Government’s disinvestment plan is high for year 2017-18. Government will not make any negative impression on investors because many other disinvestments are in pipeline.
Conclusion: Market condition is favorable. Grey market premium is also good. Housing – infrastructure financing companies are doing good at present. Company is coming with good price band i.e. P/E – 14. Listing gain is possible. But investors will not get benefits like PNB Housing Finance, LIC Housing etc. In a long-term also it will not outperform like HDFC, Bajaj Finance. It will oversubscribe more than 5 times in retail section. It is advisable to apply one (minimum) lot per application. Disclosure – I am applying.
Wednesday, May 3, 2017 IPO Analysis : IRB InvIT - Untested water - Avoid IRB Infrastructure Investment Trust''s IPO will open today for subscription.
The company intend to raise Rs 4,650 crore through the IPO in a price band of Rs 100-102 a unit.
The proceeds from the issue will be used to repay debts, prepayment of subordinated debt given to project SPVs and prepayment of unsecured loans and advances availed by the project SPVs from sponsor.
The issue consists of a fresh issue of shares aggregating to Rs 4300 crore and an offer-for-sale by IRB ID, Morden Road Makers, Aryan Toll Road, ATR Infrastructure and Ideal Road Builders.
The units will be listed on the BSE and the NSE.
IDFC Bank, Credit Suisse Securities and ICICI Securities are the lead managers to the issue and Karvy Computershare is the register to the issue.
The IRB InvIT Trust will have six completed road assets covering 3,000 km spread across five States and an average balance concession period of 16 years.
The Trust will have 100 per cent ownership of all six road assets.
IRB InvIT has already raised Rs 2095 cr through anchor investors at the upper price band. The anchor investors include Government of Singapore, Platinum International Fund, BNP Paribas, Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, Schroder Asian Asset Income Fund, Deutsche Global Infrastructure Fund, DWS RREEF, HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company, Forefront Alternative Investment, Standard Life Investment Company and Jupiter South Asia Investment Company.
Risks:
1. Declining revenues. 2. Report of losses in last 3 years. 2. Criminal investigations are pending against promoters.
Valuation :
The trust has incurred losses in the last 3 years. It was Rs 48 cr in 2014, Rs 124 cr in 2015 and Rs 76 cr in 2016.
IRB Infra hit the primary market in Feb 2008 at Rs 185. The stock is now trading around Rs 266. The benchmark indices have risen many fold from 2008 till today, where as the IRB is a laggard.
The concept, Investment Trusts issuing shares, their valuation, returns to investors are not yet tested in the market.
We recommend investors to stay away from the IPO.
53. SkDash| Link| Bookmark|
May 2, 2017 12:56:53 PM
Top Contributor (1000+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
IRB Inv IT Fund IPO Date: From 03-May-2017 to 05-May-2017 Issue Size approx. 4655 Crore Issue Rate range: 100-102 Market Lot: 10000 Minimum Order Qty: 10000 Listing at BSE & NSE Application Amount: 10,20,000 75% reserved for Institutional 25% for Non Institutional (No quota for Retail) Kostak 16000
At any point of time mobs & courts can put a halt to toll collection as had happened with Noida toll bridge whose shares I used to hold and ended with a substantial loss. Had earlier thought I had a good thing. The investment risk and uncertainty in these toll projects is substantial considering that contracts can be overruled by courts & politicians driven by populist sentiments. News of vandalisation of toll booths at different places has been showing up on newspapers every once in a while. A lot of people in the country cannot accept that they have to pay toll and feel it is government''s job to provide roads for free from tax collections. I feel companies too have realised the risk of holding these assets and have come out with such instruments to help them to lower their holding & risk.