Indiabulls Power Limited IPO Message Board (Page 18)

SHAFIN@81

Hats off to some serious number crunching.

If in spite of this,if retail investors go and apply, God also cannot save them.

I hope the issue will bomb and they withdraw the IPO.

Some years ago, even at PAR this IPO would have difficulty in getting subscribed.Now asking Rs 40 to Rs 45!!

People get what they deserve.

If they close their eyes and fall into the ditch they will get INDIABULLS POWER

INDIABULL PREMIUM @ Rs.1 - 2 and Discount Rs. 2 - 3.

Indiabulls Power is entering the capital market on 12th October 09, with a public issue of 33.98 crores equity shares of Rs. 10 each, in the price band of Rs. 40 to Rs. 45 per share. There is a Green Shoe option also, of 5.09 crore share.



We all know that the experience from recent IPOs have not been very good, especially with Power IPOs, like NHPC and Adani Power. NHPC, inspite of all hopes, is still ruling at Rs. 33 against its issue price of Rs. 36 while Adani Power is just able to float, at Rs. 101, against its issue price of Rs. 100. Even, Pipavav Shipyard has disappointed with its listing day close, at Rs. 56.80 against its issue price of Rs. 58. Though OIL India has rewarded its shareholders, but that still makes success rate of just 25%, for primary market.



Prospective investors, therefore are posing a question whether it is worth applying in IPOs? Also, the fundamentals and valuations of this IPO will be compared with that of Adani Power, and rightly so.



Going into details of Adani Power, this company has plans of setting up 6,600 MW Power Plants, with total equity of the company to be placed at Rs. 2,180 crores. All the projects has seen financial closure and equity tie up, for its with total capacity, which is to be made operational by March 2012, progressively in Phases, of which, one unit of 330 MW has already commenced production, while another 330 MW is due to start in this month. Even promoter’s stake in the company is high at 73.50% with institutional investors having subscribed to 13.03% with public float at just 13.47%. Even the prompters have expressed their execution capability in Mundra Port, as also, with start of one unit of its power project. Tie up for feedstock for the entire project has been in place, with financial closure having made at optimum debt equity ratio of 70:30. Though the company has plans to increase its capacity to 9,900 MW, additional 3,300 MW capacity is likely to get executed with debt of 70% and equity contribution of 30% to be coming from internal accruals. So, there is no fear of any further equity dilution.



Now let us have a look to the project structuring and financials of this company. Though the company is claiming to set up 5 power projects, of 1,320 MW each, aggregating to 6,600 MW, only two projects are under execution to be completed in Feb. 12 and Sept. 12. Other 3 projects are quite under nascent stage, as no financial tie up has happened for these 3 projects. So, effectively the company is 40% of Adani Power.



The present market capitilisation of Adani Power is at Rs. 22,000 crores, and 40% of this works out at Rs. 8,800 crores. With total expected number of outstanding shares of 205 crores, value per share works out to Rs. 43 per share. In view of only two projects starting that too after FY 12, no internal accruals would be available with the company, to finance its future projects.



So, in the given situation, the company has set a price of Rs. 40 to Rs. 45 per share. Since secondary market value seems to be arriving at 43 per share, it is logical to price the issue at its lower band of Rs. 40 per share, where it can be seen to be fairly priced, in view of band having announced at 40-45.



Adani Power and NHPC have not been able to create an investment interests, inspite of both of them being listed for the last over a month. This will see less interest coming in from Retail category and virtually no interest coming in from HNI category. Also, promoters of the company have no experience of executing mega infrastructure projects. Though the promoters of the company is engaged into realty development, but that has been altogether total different play, in which property largely having acquired from NTC which has been developed through a contractor, to finally sell it on ownership or lease it out.



In such a situation, it is not advised to subscribe to the shares, beyond Rs. 40, whereas, especially for retail investors, it is necessary to be cautious, as generally they go for cut off. There is no such compulsion on part of the prospective investors, to go for the issue, in view of Adani Power and NHPC, now available at much better valuations, then this company.



One may try to punt on the issue for momentum play, which may also be risky. So, at Rs. 40, it can be given an investment consideration, and anything beyond 40 is a clear no.

co.old record is good but now experience in this field.All ipos in power sector are not going to reward before 4-5 years so think seriously before applying. But if you can wait for a long time take risk and apply for 150-300 shares.

dear Ravi / Prakash,

What are your views on IndiaBulls Power? As per fundamentals / valuation .

dear ravi,i never apply in such ipo. which r just for mgmt.they never think abt retail investor.

last one year about 95% ipo below issue prise upto 80% discount ,govt should investigate, otherwise , it will bad effect on govt.

75.

u will get 6 shares of RIL for 96 shares of RPL and the remaining amount for 4 shares of RPL (Rs 131 per share) will be credited to account linked to the demat. It might have been already credited by now, check once. Reg the eligibility of bonus, check with others

Dear 74. prakashipo,

Anyway how are you? Have you applied for Thinksoft IPO?

I am holding 100 shares of RPL. After convertion, how many reliace shares will be allotted to me. whether allotted/converted shares are eligible of bonus shares of reliance. When the converted shares would be credited to my account?

INDIABULL PREMIUM @ Rs.1 - 2 and disc.

Dear ukg,

The rest of the 10 share will converted 10/16=0.625 shares.
Amount equivalent to that (aprx 0.625 * 2000 = 1250) will be credited to your account linked to DEMAT. Or by cheque.

Wait for few weeks.

As Reliance has approved 1:1 bonus when will it be credited in demat account. What will be the market price after receiving bonus shares...will it be the same as the current market price..Is the bonus eligible for who received Reliance shares in replacement for RPL shares? Thanks.

now this is too much.govt.must protect retail investors.
there must be 5-10% discount for retail investor like before FPO icici bank,PNB etc.
this is appeal of retail investors to sebi and government.

nonsense, now this is too much,now see same old story.pipavav slipped inside alloted price..this is lesson for retail investor to stop applying in any ipo.....now to attract retail investor merchant banker OF ..INDIOABULLS POWER IPO will give cash incentive as it was given in pipavav ipo...

can any one give me gmp of ibulls power ipo application

india bulls purely depend on gamble ,play cautiously.

Another one of Expensive IPO's. Fair price would have been 20-25. Better to avoid rather than face NHPC similar situation.

SEE ANALYSIS OF INDIABULLS IPO ON NIRMAL BANG..this is purely ..LONG TERM ..STORY...BE CAUTIOUS

MD. ASIF....WELL SAID.. you have given good indication that how ipo is getting subscribed on very first day...i appreciate your last two lines..that sell on listing and dont burn your finger and dont wait till 2013..if one want to apply in any ipo ,he should not think of long term.. just think of short term..kal kya hoga kise patta...kal kisne dekha...