In my analysis of fair value based on growth which even at higher growth rate THEN WHAT HPL HAS ACHIEVED i got a fair value of of Rs 130 with MIS of 25% AVOID THIS ISSUE
Initial Cash Flow: $36,63,00,000
Years: 1-5 6-10
Growth Rate: 12% 8%
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% Discount Rate: 10%
Shares Outstanding: 6,43,00,500 Margin of Safety: 25%
Debt Level:
Year Flows Growth Value
1 41,02,56,000 12% $37,29,60,000
2 45,94,86,720 12% $37,97,41,091
3 51,00,30,259 11% $38,31,93,283
4 56,10,33,285 10% $38,31,93,283
5 61,71,36,614 10% $38,31,93,283
6 67,26,78,909 9% $37,97,09,707
7 73,32,20,011 9% $37,62,57,801
8 79,18,77,612 8% $36,94,16,750
9 85,52,27,820 8% $36,27,00,082
10 92,36,46,046 8% $35,61,05,535
Terminal Year $96,98,28,348
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: $3,74,64,70,814
Terminal Value: $7,47,82,16,232
Total PV of Cash Flows: $11,22,46,87,046
Number of Shares: 6,43,00,500
Intrinsic Value (IV): $174.57
Margin of Safety IV: $130.92
What Percentage of IV comes from 67%
the Terminal Value: