@ Ravi, Bangalore, Now that a week has passed would you please reassess Hathway cables and let me know whether I should hold or sell. I am happy that in this week the overall market condition as well as the price of this have improved.
I like the below lines that was what i want to hear there are no technical analyst.if someone says he knows market he is biggest fool.thats true market is always above me and you are trade in its own ways and not according to technical charts. if you think anlsyts hav anything to do then check the biggest analyst to be recommended in all tv,news is mr tulsian .if you check his ipo recommendation you will see his success ratio is not more than 10% so what kind of analyst.
although i say i have invested correctly in all recent ipos and got profits in all except nhpc which even i think is very good stock to hold for long term .
Luck is God's grace. You do your job, rest leave it to God. Luck is not in our hands.
Market is smarter than analysts whether my analysis or your analysis.
DEAR JATIN, FIRST DONT APPLY TO EVERY IPO READ BLOGS HERE OF PEOPLE U TRUST, I DID NOT GO FOR AQUA,THANGA,SYNCON,VASCON,HATHWAY ETC, RATHER I WENT FOR NHPC,OIL,COX,INFINITE,DB,ARSS,MAN,UBI ETC.
DONT AVERAGE HATHWAY AT ANY PRICE I WOULD HAVE BEEN WAITED TILL I RECOVER MY COST BUT NOT A GOOD THING TO DO I GENERALLY DONT SALE SHARES AT LOSS I KEEP IT TILL COST ATLEST,TRY TO EXIT AROUND COST & TAKE CALCULATED LOSS IF U R READY
FIRST DONT APPLY TO EVERY IPO READ BLOGS HERE OF PEOPLE U TRUST, I DID NOT GO FOR AQUA,THANGA,SYNCON,VASCON,HATHWAY ETC, RATHER I WENT FOR NHPC,OIL,COX,INFINITE,DB,ARSS,MAN,UBI ETC.
DONT AVERAGE HATHWAY AT ANY PRICE I WOULD HAVE BEEN WAITED TILL I RECOVER MY COST BUT NOT A GOOD THING TO DO I GENERALLY DONT SALE SHARES AT LOSS I KEEP IT TILL COST ATLEST,TRY TO EXIT AROUND COST & TAKE CALCULATED LOSS IF U R READY
You identify good IPOs and avoid bad IPOs. Suppose your analysis go wrong, when you will exit? Do you mean to say you never go wrong in financial market investment?
To earn Rs.2, you should take a risk of Re.1 as per money management. Why short-term traders loose money? To earn Rs.2, they take a risk of Rs.5 or Rs.10 or even worse, when they loose Rs.20, they book loss. How they can make money?
It is easy to loose two year earnings in two months. To avoid, you should cut your emotion. In charts, trader identifies where buyers are struck, short-sellers are trapped subject to stop-loss. Using chart, you don't trade blindly and does not allow small loss to grow bigger. If there is no risk, people will leave their jobs and sit in trading halls.
Market fell from 21000 to 7800 and retraced almost 60 - 70% of fall. You develop your own trading method. Why you see analysts recommendtions in TV, Internet, SMS, newspaper etc. Similary, just because a company is fundamentally sound, you cannot withdraw fixed deposit to invest in stock market. Can you invest in Tata Goup comapnies, Reliance, Mahindra withdrawing your fixed deposits? Satyam was good company at Rs.400. When it came to sub-100, people realisd that something wrong. Fundamental analysis do not address market-related risk.
How many fundamental analysts downgraded Bharti Airtel when it was trading above 450? When it came-down to 300, fundamental analysts downgraded. By that time, it is too late. Everybody is long-term investors till market crashes.
When DLF was trading around Rs.600, it was good only for fundamental analysis. They downgraded when it was sub-300. DLF promoters might have fooled. But you should have analysed correctly. Market is full of sharks & cheating people. You should learn to trade with cheaters. That is your skill. No use of blaming anybody.
Financial markets are uncertain. Cutting loss early and allowing profit to grow is important. When you are wrong loose Re.1 and when you are right gain Rs.2. Without tools you are tempted to book profit at Re.1 and loose Rs.2 or even Rs.5.
Luck is God's grace. You do your job, rest leave it to God. Luck is not in our hands.
Market is smarter than analysts whether my analysis or your analysis.
I agree that one should follow techicals to understand market. my point is you might end up loosing money even if you follow technical charts. it is good to hear you earned in 7 out of 10 but there are many experts who follow techincal but end up loosing 7 out of 10.
here i was not talking about stocks in secondary market but IPO to tell everyone how you would be able to identify between good ipos and bad ipos.
it is always better to have good stocks in one portfolio and exit of bad stocks rather than getting more loss in them. although i dont think 2-3 months gains is better than 1 year gain because traders might be tempted to whatever they earn in 2-3 months to loose again in another 2 months.
If there was a technical chart then market would not have gone down from 21000 levels to 7800 when all experts and analyst asked to buy at 12000. same way if there was technical chart market would not have so quickly reached from 7800 to 17000 level.
it is the way you buy good stocks. you would see that people actually trust all tata group companies, reliance,mahindra companies but not anil ambani stocks,dlf as they fooled people woth asking price too high and then again caught people by saying that they will issue bonus shares and dlf to buy stock upto 600 rs.
i would say however good analyst you are if you dont have luck and time with you all your analysis fails.
You said market won't follow technicals. Using technical analysis, I did not apply for FPO. Instead, I shorted & covered at 207 & gone long in futures and still holding it (you can check my earlier messages). I did not like applying to NTPC, REC FPOs as technically it was looking weak at that point of time. Hence, took short positions. I don't hesitate to book loss. Also, I don't hesitate to admit I am wrong. Adhering to stop-loss is required.
You must understand that reputed borkerage houses, FIIs, Mutual Funds hire technical analyst to get edge over fundamental research.
I am doing intra-day, positional trading based on technical analysis since three years not only in equities but also in commodities. Before learning technical analysis, I was holding stocks for one - two years. Now, I am managing to get similar return in three-six months. Even for intra-day, it is very helpful. However, long-term investment is a must for creating assets. Hence, I invest in good Mutual Funds (three funds) every monch regularly since 10 years.
I lost money in Indiabulls Power & Hathway. However, I made more than what I lost in intra-day itself. You can check my postings. Not only that, even in many other issues including bad issues (that I did not apply for IPO).
George Soros is the No. 1 short-term trader. His Quantum Fund is No.1 hedging fund in USA beating long-term legendery investor Warren Buffet. You should read his book "Fundamental Vs Technicals".
You better understand both are important in financial market investment. Both have its own merits & demerits. You are not favouring anybody by ignoring techicals.
Technical Analysis is not perfect science. Some failures are expected. Stop-loss will trigger. But, it will cut investors emotion. When I don't have emotion, I will cut Hathway as soon as it fell to 231. But many investors hesitate to book loss because emotion (earlier loss) come to their mind. Similary, fundamental analysis also have flaws. It does not address market-risk. Fundamental analysts sold Satyam, Unitech, DLF when those stocks lost 70% to 90%.
In trading, if you do 10 trades & 7 are successful, it is enough. I am not God to make profit always.
If you comment market won't follow technicals, people will think that you are stupid. If you are making money, you follow your trading method. However, don't comment on other investors method & integrity.
IF you check earlier messages before ipo listing i have asked everybosy to apply in cox and kings,infinite computers ,jubiliant and ARSS Infra. There have been fight beween many people before cox and kings listing that it will go down but i stick to what i said .please check the message blogs.
i never liked and asked everyone not to apply thanga jewellery,hathway cable,vascon engineers, aqua logistic(though it give small gains but it will below issue price soon)
if you check i aslo asked everybody before REC LTd before ipo listing when everybody was saying that its looting people but i asked before ipo closed to apply in it.
What happens to NHPC / NTPC in long-termis known to everybody. Using technical analysis, what you earn in one year can be earned in just one or two months.
If you buy any Top 500 companies with reasonalbe valuation, everything is good in long-term. Your skill lies, whether you make same profit in 3 or 6 months?
You can tell your opinion in Cox & Kings, Jubilint, after everything has happened. But you should analyse & tell before applying for IPOs.
What opinion you have given in Jubiliant? Most investors are pessimistic. But I applied & given my opinion to apply. However, I have gone wrong on Indiabulls Power, Hathway Cables. I have applied for almost all IPOs (four applications) since June-July & lost in only two IPOs.
No regret for being wrong in two IPOs. Some people tell only success rate, but both success & failure rate matter for investors.
You should understand that everybody goes wrong, even FIIs, Mutual Funds. If you say all your predictions are right, then trusing you is difficult.
I accept my failure Hathway Cables. I never gave my opinion in Thangamavil Jewellery. Nobody can give you 100% correct information.
Opinions may differ. You may not like Hathway. But I like Hathway because it is bigger than Dish TV and have long history in cable business. I have exited at opening bell and waiting to accumulate at lower levels. I never regret for loosing money in Hathway Cables because I have gained great confidence using technical analysis. It cuts my emotion & I can catch short-term big moves.
You can tell after things have happened. To make profit, you should speculate before-hand.
Out of 10 trades, if you are right in 7, it is OK. It is not that how many times you are right or wrong is important, but how less you lost when you are wrong & how much profit you made when you are right is important.
If you buy REC at 210 and sell at 225, then you could have missed the big move! When we make technical analysis, trader controls emotion and holds for the next target level. Otherwise, catching big moves in short time is pretty difficult. Trader holds for big loss but never holds for big-profit in short-term. Emotion makes them the book profit early.
If you ignore technical analysis, it is at your own peril. You can see earlier message, at what level I have given opinion to go short in NTPC, REC with targets. Knowing both techncials & fundamentals helps you to make accurate projections. After-all information is the key to success and not knowing technical analysis costs you dearly. You may miss short-term big moves.
I know you might be giving some technical charts but markets never follow that. You were wrong in predicicting price for hathway cable and thad jewelleery both.Personally i never liked boththese companies and i asked everyone to stay away from them.
Here is what i analyse when you apply in ipo.the reason why jubiliant foodworks,infinite computers,cox and kings gine up because of excellent management and excellent growth prospects.morever they all are extremely poplar among foreign investors. secondaly there ipo were too small and hugely subscribed that even made it give good listing which i was sure about. cox and kings was an exception but it was very cheap in p/e and fav among f1.
same will happen with arss infra p/e is less, good oversubscription, very small issue of 100 crore.boost to infra.
right now everone says bad things about nhpc but reason it fall below issue price was it was a very large issue about 6000 crore whereas all these ipo cox and kings,jubiliant,inifnite small issue between 200-600 crores. i am sure if you invest in nhpc now you will good amount of money in long term as it is still a safe bet.