@snipperRaj (593.29)
Inspired by other IPOgurus trying to decode & explain tricks on basis of BoA, & myself not alloted sometimes even after bHNI applications, I started understanding BoA reproduced by chittorgarh team, though has sample details only, but still explain many things
@IPOGainers
You are right, ratio remains ALMOST same at different IPO lots,
- but still it is variable, for example, in Dreamfolks, it is 25:151 at 67 lots, that is almost 1:6, but it varies from 1:4 to 1:8 at various level - anyway this can never be predicted.
- what I talk about is multiple application in family or group.
More than 90% applications are made at minimum bhni share no, for example, in Dreamfolks, 14705 applications at 67 lots, that is 90.91% of total bhni applications, & ratio of allotment is 25:151. Suppose you had applied 5 or 10 bhni applications, whole group can easily be missed at this ratio of 25:151.
But what is you applied all multiple applications at 72 lots, no of application in Dreamfolks is 33 & ratio is 5:33; at 333 lots, no of applications 7 & allotment ratio is 1:7.
So if you would had applied 7 application with 333 lots, you would had confirm one allotment in group, while at 72 lots, your group had almost (7÷33) 20% chance, while at 67 lots, almost (7÷151) 5% chance.
Again this observation is from past, & just try to say apply max no of shares rather than default minimum bhni. To predict such magic no of lots & no of bhni application, is like predict victory in teenpatti. Luck is mightier than strategy.
-Another observation made from study of BoA is, as is possibility of LUCKY figure, there is possibilty of UNLUCKY figure, especially who apply 1 or 2 bhni applications. HOW->
For example, in Dreamfolks BoA, min bhni is 67 lots & goes upto 1000 lots. So practically there are 934 different levels, where you can apply bhni. Shares reserved for bhni is 17,24,236, so lot possibly can be alloted per level is 1724236÷934÷644=2.87. Overall ratio of allotment is 1:6. Few levels had alloted much more no of lots but most alloted 1 lot. Now all bhni levels are not shown in BoA, (ideally every level applied should have atleast one firm allotment) but there is a possibility that some level would have only one application & such 2-3 levels clubbed together & alloted only one lot, then those another two levels having only one application but will not have only allotment. I call this level an UNLUCKY NUMBER to apply for, again don't know whether it exists, but surely can't be predicted. But if it exists, solo applicators better apply at default minimum bhni level or select any level in a group & apply.
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