Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL) IPO Message Board (Page 65)

@ Vishal

I have written on my post how i am basing my estimates for future....It is my own not companies...no company gives guidance for 5 years....

You have to analyse and then predict....thats what analysts do

I have taken Sector oulook from various reports on ports and the rate at which they will grow in future and current and future trends

i have shown figures of gujarat PIPAVAS performance.....and shown how loan will reduce and turn profitable...operating margins which have improved will improve.

The basic data on current figures and project details i have taken from management guidance

PLZ GO THRU MY LOGIC......ONCE AGAIN IN DEEP...

YES THESE ESTIMATES ARE MY OWN

Best wishes

Setu

P.S. I can only advice you......its your take wether you want to trust it or not.......and i advice you to decide yourself not just by my projections...

Dear SJ,

Guidance for GPPL looks okay to me. Just can you confirm whether the guidance given by company or its your estimate.

Regards,

Vishal

boarders..........enough have/been said..... Crisil.....nirmal bang keynote capital business linejinohne advice karne ko kaha hain yes sab bewakuf hain................................................. Idfc sski deutche....govt of singapore.......yeh sab bhi bewkuf hain...........apm terminals jo 30 countries mein port succesfuly.........chalata hai aur is company mein ..........50 pratishat stake kharida hai....woh be bewakuf hai.............maine itna samjaya aur itni mehnat se apko projection dikhaye.......main cheator hoon.............................. Khali app loog jo court case..............negative eps.....loss....high debt.......ka rona ro rahen hain sabse hoshiyar hain...............isse pehle ki main apna sar pakad ke diwalll pe maar dun......plz mujhe baksh do....main app logon ko aur nahi samjha sakta............main haar manta hun...lollllllll...now i will only reply to people whu want advice...or when some new updates happen

@ milinds plz also tell him that u got profits/from my advice/on rainbow papers to this bhaiyaaaajiiiiii.........bholeram...............! Bhaiyaji bholeram main yahan sirf apna opinion de raha hun.....kisiko prove karne,....nahi........yahan...pe log disuss karne aate hain tumhari tarah guthka kha ke dusron ki uturne aur unpe pik thukne nahi.........nahi..................samje paanwale bhaiya...bhole....ji..

@ sitaram first of all i do not....give money to people to appreciate...me........... Second i just blog and give my views........i do not seek publicity.......its better that i get publicity from my broking clients whom i advice in kolkata.......coz they will bet more money with me as they have done in past thirdly....why dont you do some homework and see.......the quality of my posts in sks .........i am not bragging..........and then count the no of people whu were against this ipo and how few were right..... Fourthly just bcoz i am neww here and just given sks analysis.....doesnt mean i have only been right once...in my career....if that was the case i would not be surviving in sub broking line since last 5 years...... Lastly Calling good technical guys like ravi cheater proves how shalllow you are..........coz he has been more often right than wrong ....he gives you stop loss targets....he does not leave/you with unlimited loss........but if he is rite it generates huge profits... I mean this is place for serious bloggers giving their point of view politely and discussing.....and not for people like you whu calls others cheaters... I am sorry to say people like you who give comments like this are a disgrace to this blog

239 milinds

i dont want to hurt you or have a fight with u but one i want to tell u one thing.

u just follow this ipo as SJ says.

tumhara sab khaya piya nikal jaayega

Yeh Company ka toh anchor book bhi khali 45 par bhara hai. yeh company discount list hogi

Yeh SJ ka naam badal kar shekh chilli (SC) rakh dena chaiye. ek baar sks main tukka sahi baith gaya to apne aap ko bahut bara research analyst samajh raha hai

jo company pichale 4 saal se ghata bhadaha rahi hai woh ab isake projection se 2 saal main munnafa kamane lag jaayegi.

sabko oolluu bana raha hai

khud bhi marega aur hamein bhi marawa dega

sj,
i hope you are taking about your recomedation for sks
every board members were possitive for sks and listing gains i donot think to give credit people who give credit to you we know that they belong to your chain
i hope this ipo of gujarat is bogus
let take your test in this ipo if you fail you will become another RAVI BANGALORE CHEAT AND OPERATOR

let us know what is the of scheme per for of 1 lac in Ahmedabad.

238 safe
please explain firstday bidding bonus 200+200?
it means per form 400 rs frist day on small and big applications........

Thanks Milinds. I hope you read it comprehensively and all your apprehensions...bcoz of ....so much sensless hulla of negative eps..losses...promoter selling stake...on this blog...has cleared...!!

I once again advice serious long term investors...plz read this...analysis i have posted in post no 234.....233...232....and 230 in ascending order.....carefully...and undertand....why it is a long term bet....!

Apply for long term and not short term

In short term operators may short it as in case of pipavav shipyard..as.....small issue size small price band.....plz dnt ridicule me for that. i repeat do not ridicule.!!

Although dont expect that this will gove negative returns....

ALSO to be on safe side apply half of total amount you want to invest.......and invest half on listing when price stabilizes.

If it goes down you can average out at lower levels

If it lists up....invest after 15 day price stabilisation...

after price stabilisation...and ceasure of volatility...Even if it is costly.....by 20% of issue price..u are not at loss..coz u are assured that downside is limited....coz retail and operators have shorted and FIIs and istitutions have cornered shares.....

DEAR SJ,
You had sold us "SKS", I am still holding it & also doing "intraday" trading in it & doing lots of profit.
HATS OF TO YOU YAAR, THAT YOU ARE TAKING GREAT EFFORTS AGAIN ON GPPL.(AS IN CASE OF SKS)
THERE ARE VERY FEW RESPECTABLE BOARDERS LIKE YOU ON "CHITTORGARH"
MAY GOD BLESS YOU & INCREASE YOUR COMMUNITY !!
milinds

firstday bidding bonus 200+200

thanks aziz

But some people will still ridicule me....like they ridiculed me on SKS blog after my efforts..they call me cheater operator etc....

Although that doesnt affect me but other people get misguided...I nver call anyone cheater

Anyways...i hope you READ THE ANALYSIS....AZIZ

plz dnt panic on listing day if it is hsorted and lists below....hold for long term..

Subscribe for FREE Stock Tips by e-mail @ http://www.buzzingstocktips.com/ .. Do ur own additional research on the stock. Buy with conviction once ur confident

Cheers!

@Sj really amazing the efforts you are putting in...sometime i think that stock markets are easy money ,,but you really remind me that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Thanks :)

DEAR BOARDERS

As I told you I have finished my forward earning projections and EPS and price targets till FY14....for Pipavav SHipyard Just as i did for SKS to give you clarity of future growth of this company.

I would like to make it clear that this is my analysis from excel spreadsheets based on available financial data (to comment on current data) and future Shipping Sector Growth...as highlited by CRISIL and other government agencies and current and future trends (For future earning projection)and not COPY PASTE from DRHP that people generally make here and scare others.

But before that i would like to mention some points about financial performance from FY05-09.

See people here who say this is bad company are just highlighting only Profit Loss, Negative EPS etc...saying that this is loss making company and is bad to invest...

They have not analysed the performance...completely.

I would like to highlight thoose points and here on

Gujarat Pipavav Past performance from Dec 05 to Dec 09 (Since they report financial year as Jan-Dec):------

1) Operating Revenues have increased from 67 crores to 219.3 crores from FY05-09....i.e. a CAGR of 38%.

So they are growing revenues and increasing capacity. As on FY09 Capacity Utilisation was 30% plus which will increase to 70-100% utilisation once capex is done and full capacity is build up by FY2010. In fact generally the established ports in India operate more than 100% capacity.

2)Total Operating Expenses have steadlily showing declining growth rates from 50% to 13% in FY09.

3)Earnings Before Interest Tax Depriciation and Amortisation has grown at a CAGR of 21% from FY05-09

4)Ebidta margins have increased from -11.7% in FY05-06 to 29.6%.

5)In fact the company has posted postive Eernings Before Interest and Tax EBIT in Quarter1 of FY10..!!

SO BOARDERS NOTICE THAT THEY ARE CONSTANTLY IMPRESSING WITH RESULTS..AND TURNING AROUND SINCE THE LAST FIVE YEARS RAPIDLY.

7)Now coming to Loan Outstanding and Interest Burden that some people are highlighting. Let me first explain you company's capex and funding

Total Capex 1964 crores

Sources of Funds:

Equity Already Bought In 491 crores
Sponsor Support 30 crores
IPO Proceeds (Not less than) 243 crores
Senior Debt 1200 crores

Now current debt is 1200 crores interest at 14% comes out to be approx (incuding finacial expenses) comes out to 172 crores for FY10.

Debt Equity Ratio 3.94 but after IPO proceeds are deucted till FY12 and Ebidta margin is projected to increase from FY10-FY14 as it has been increasing currently and will increase as i will show you in my projections, they will bring down Debt Equity ratio to 0.94 by FY12 from Current 3.94 starting from FY10 as they have also been directed in loan agreemnt with lenders.

So Interest cost will reduce 1/3rd every year from 172 crores in FY10 to 48 crores by FY13. That means they will start being profitable on EBIT and Net profit front from FY11 which will increase at a fast rate by FY14.

CONTINUEED..............

NOW AFTER DISCUSSING THESE SCENARIOS LET ME COME TO THE FORWARD EANINGS EPS AND PRICE TARGET EXPECTATIONS:--

Plz note the following aspects about future growth outlook before i give you actual figures:

(A) Revenue Projection: Gujarat Pipavav Shipyard derives it revenues from 4 segements.Their percentage contribution to total revenues as on Dec 2009 is as follows:

1)Container Cargo (62%)
2)Bulk Cargo (33%)
3)LPG Cargo* (0%)
4)Ultratech Jetty* (1.6%)
5)Land Related (3.5%)

1)As per CRISIL report Cantainer Cargo volume in Gujarat and Mumbai based ports will grow at CAGR of 27% from FY10-FY14 period.

2)Bulk Cargo as per CRISIL will grow at CAGR of 15%

3)LPG Cargo had no revenues from FY07-FY10 as their were some implemention faults and roadblocks and has started being operational from Dec 2009. This used to contribute 30 crore revnue previously and will cross that mark by FY13.LPG cargo revenues will start coming in Q2 FY10 with company giving services to Aegis Gas.

Also the pipavav region is set to see power capacity additions and hence requirement to import coal and hence Pipavav's Coal Cargo volumes will rise phenomenally from FY12..by clients like Videocon, Visa Power, Torrent Power.

However i have taken just conservative estimates of LPG cargo revenues till FY14. After customer additions are bound to happen this will increase.

4)Ultratech jetty has given stable revenues and keep on growing.

5) Land related revenues will increase as pipavav has tremenuos land assets around port which they can rent out to other companies for cargo handling by making small operational capex and getting huge revenues...

(B)Opearting Expenses Projection:

Gujarat pipav operates at just 30% capacity..coz total capex to finish port development is going on.

Because of this they have to pay penalty of 148 crores which are part of operating expenses....till now. But going forward as their volumes are increasing currently at 50% operating capacity and 90-100% by FY14 after total capex starts giving fruits...in the form of fully opeartional port capacities...this 148 crores will keep going down ultimatelt to 0 by fy12 significantly reducing opearting expenses.

So now my Forward estimates are as follows

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Expected (figures in crores)

Operating Income: 290 370 460 690

Less:Operating Expenses: 145 150 165 189 190

EBIDTA: 144 220 295 370 500

EBIT: 94 155 225 285 400

Interest 172 118 78 45 30

PAT -65 27 157 250 380

(Note: ports are currently take exempted they pay service charges on sales)

Debt Equity Ratio 2.5 1.75 0.9 0.6 0.3

Post Issue share capital is 442 crores and face value is 10

So EPS Comes out to (-ve for Fy10) 0.64 3.74 6.0 9.05

Hence Price Targets per share for Gujarat Pipavav

Now market discounts one year forward earnings:

Since net loss will reduce 44% from 117.5 crores to -65 crores in 12 months Dec 2010

People will recognise it and price will at least stay around Rs. 60 in FY10. PE doesnt matter here.

FY11:---- Rs. 75 becuase of positive PAT and EPS of 3.74 in FY12 and PE of 20

FY12: Rs. 180 PE 30.....6 EPS as growth rate will increase considerably

FY13: Rs.270.... PE 30 9.05 FY14 EPS