Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL) IPO Message Board (Page 61)

DONT APPLY FOR GPPL IPO

ACCUMULATED LOSSES AS ON 31.03.2010 ARE RS. 780.13 CRORES.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

YEAR TURNOVER NET PROFIT(LOSS) RS. CRORES
2006 142 (52)
2007 165 (46)
2008 198 (68)
2009 225 (118)

THIS IPO IS OF 500 CRORES OUT OF WHICH 300 CRORES WILL BE USED FOR DEBT REPAYMENT. AT THIS TIME COMPANY HAS GROSS ASSETS OF RS. 1590 CRORES. ONLY 200 CRORES OUT OF THIS ISSUE WILL BE USED FOR ASSETS ADDITIONS. AFTER THIS ISSUE THERE WILL BE 4 CHANGES IN PROFITABLITY OR LOSS MAKING ABILTY:-

1. INTREST COST WILL BE LESSER BY RS. 30 CRORES PER ANNUM.
2. ADDITIONAL GROWTH IN REVENUES BY USING THIS 200 CRORES.
3. NORMAL GROWTH DUE TO GROWTH IN YEARLY BUSINESS.
4. NORMAL INCREASE IN EXPENSES FOR HIGHER VOLUMES.

NOW U ALL CAN PREDICT FUTURE OF THIS COMPANY.

USE UR OWN MIND BECAUSE ITS UR MONEY AND U CARE MOST FOR THIS.

MY OPINION ITS A FLOP COMPANY WHICH WILL EITHER GIVE LOSS ON LISTING OR A RETURN LESS THAN RS. 1000 PER APPLICATION.
MY OPINION IS GIVEN KNOWING THE FACT THAT RIGHT NOW THERE IS A BUYER OF RS.1800 PER APPLICATION AND SHARE RS. 9 IN GREY MARKET. BUT I HAVE THE COURAGE TO TALK AGAINST GREY MARKET. MONEY SAVED IS MONEY EARNED. ITS BETTER TO AVOID ONE GOOD IPO THAN TO APPLY IN ONE BAD IPO.

BOLO TARA RA RA

some one deleted my earlier posts made this morning...

to summarize them:

For 323 Vishal,
I don't have any targets for PAT or price movements of this stock. Why, because this comany have a proven track records of doubling its losses each year. I do not believe in order books, those are very much manageble. this stock is not going to perform well as this is highly overpriced issue. 48 is too much for a Rs 9 booksvalue loss making company. I am not a number analyst but I just want to analyse the return and risk ratio.

Thanks for your compliments however.

For Mr Jadhav,

thx for supporting. yes I am a serious retail investor with income LESS than Rs 2.5 lakh permonth with zero clients in stock market. I am here just for a moderate return of 40-50% an annum. I do not want to have 100-200% return from this market because that ultimately leads to a complete wipe off.

As I do not know other person, no personal comment on them. I would like points against points not frustated comments. I am here for just a good discussion. However some people may not understand that.

ya right...

I have book knowledge......i am working as a subroker since last 6 years and having a monthly income of 2.5 lakhs brokerage and 500 clients.......our broking house which started from time when my dad was doing badla trading since 1992.

Yes we have no practical knowledge...Only these smart people have knowledge.

Actually if they have practical knowledge then may might as well tell why

edserve which had no earnings went from 60 to 300 in 2 years.

Why indusindbank went to 220 from 30 after management change in 2 years.....

why hindustan oil exploration that had 100 PE went from 90 to 250 ?

Why interlink petroleum which has 70% foreign promoters and PE of 1000 went up from 30 to 70 in 3 months.

why mayatas infra went up to 200 from 60 after change in management when they were fraud and had heavy losses ?

The point is turnaround story when taken by good promoters at the right time always give multibagger returns

Well obviously we dont have any practical knoledge . We have book knowledge

So please Boarders listen to these people who have practical knowledge....!! and do not buy this turnaround story. Obviously when it turns positive eps in 2 years....it will not be cheap....

And all analysts like Ramdeo Agarwal deven choksey who hve betted on contrarion plays and amdeo who curretly has taken in contra bet on Central Bank of India on mangaement change have book knowledge..!

WITHOUT MY INTENTION TO INSULT OR HURT ANYBODY, I WOULD LIKE TO SAY THAT I ALSO AGREE WITH "R SQUARE". THIS IS A TOTALLY FLOP COMPANY. MOST OF THE ANALYSTS ARE JUST BOOK WORMS. ALL THE COMAPNIES, WHOSE IPO GOT SUCCEEDED HAD ANCHOR INVESTORS AND MANY OF THESE ANCHOR INVESTORS WERE BIG NAMES. FATE OF MOST OF THESE COMPANIES IS KNOWN TO EVERYBODY. EVEN INDIABULLS POWER QIB PORTION SUBSCRIBED MORE THAN 40 TIMES INCLUDING VERY BIG INSTITUTIONAL NAMES.

ALTHOGH I AGREE WITH RSQUARE, BUT HERE STORY NEEDS TO BE CHANGED TO SOME EXTENT. THIS COMPANY'S MANGO TREE (ITS INVESTMENTS) WERE OF RS. 1088 CRORES (NET OF LIABILITIES) BUT IT HAS ERODED VALUE OF ITS NETWORTH BY RS. 808 CRORES TO JUST RS. 280 CRORES BY SELLING ITS MANGOS (SERVICES) BELOW COST OF GROWING MANGOS(COST OF SERVIVES INCLD. INTT. ETC). THIS EROSION OF NETWORTH (MANGO TREE) HAS BEEN CONSISTENT REGULAR AND INCREASING EVERY YEAR.

ONE NEED NOT TO BE EXPER TO CHECK ALL THESE THINGS THESE ARE MENTIONED IN THE IPO FORM ITSELF. NO MIRACLE CAN TURN THIS COMPANY IN IMMEDIATE PROFIT. THE COMPANY AND ITS INVESTORS ARE TRYING TO FOOL PUBLIC BY ISSUING A RS. 10 WORTH OF SHARE AT RS. 48 PER.

VALUATION OF MUNDRA PORT CAN NOT BE GIVEN TO THIS COMPANY AS NOT ALL THE MANGO TREES SHOULD HAVE SAME VALUATION. A PROFIT MAKING MUNDRA (GOOD QUALITY MANGO TREE) WITH GUJPIPA A LOSSMAKING (BAD QUALITY MANGO TREE) IS NOT FAIR.

MY OPINION ITS A WORTHLESS IPO WHICH MAY LIST ON PREMIUM ONLY BECAUSE OF INVESTOR HYPE AND SENTIMENTS AND OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WILL SEE RS. 20 PRICE. IF AT ALL IT LIST AT SOME PREMIUM, RETURN PER LAC OF APPLICATION WILL BE LESS THAN RS.1000 BECAUSE OF HIGH OVERSUBSCRIPTION. DISCOUNT LISTING ON LISTING DAY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. (NOTE I AM MAKING THIS COMMENTS KNOWING THE FACT THERE IS GREY MARKET PREMIUMM OF RS. 9 AT THIS POINT OF TIME)

BOLO TARA RA RA

324 DEAR FOOLS JADHAV

PLEASE, I AM AN INVESTOR BUT I DONT THINK RAVI, SJ, KK. GEM ARE OPERATORS. THEY ARE ALSO INVESTORS. VIEWS OF ONE BOARDERS MAY DIFFER FROM OTHERS, THERE IS NOTHING WRONG IN THIS.

PLEASE U ALSO NOT TAKE IT OTHERWISE AND ENJOY THE DEBATE BUT DONT MAKE ANY PERSONAL REMARLS/ COMMENTS.

BOLO TARA RA RA

@ARUNNADA --Crisil rating is 4 toh kya ..NHPC ko bhi 4 ka rating tha .... check out the balance sheet of company ..continues losses ..... People who are investing are digging there own graves ..this is what i think ..

NHPC ka dard main abh tak zel raha hu ..

What happened to this issue, Crisil rating is 4 but first day Subscription is very poor

somebody has described me as chamcha.
that may be true because i am a follower of ravi, bangalore, whose analyses are amongst the best.
i see nothing wrong in taking good advice from this open forum. i thank you brother325FoolsJadhav for your kind
observation. lets continue the healthy debate and stop hitting below the belt.
mary

315.K.K. Natarajan is not my message. Whoever has posted that, why can't you use your name? Don't you have a name?

VERY GOOD
THERE HAS BEEN GOOD DISCUSSION KEEP IT UP
WE HAVE TWO GROUP OF PEOPLE
SJ, RAVI BANGALORE,K.K.NATARAJAN, GEM IPO FINDER ( MARRY ,MILINDS ,GANE,these are all chamachas)
2) BOLO TARA RA RA ,CHEMCHO, R SQUARE,

GOOD GOING

OPERATORS ARE 1)
INVESTORS ARE 2)

Dear RSquare,

Forget about mango, lets talk about GPPL. Give me your 3 year forward PAT ( earning ) target. Also give me your listing discount target, price targets for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years. Let us know your fundamental research for GPPL's forward PAT & Price targets.

Ohhh ya, may be you can try to get job at the Wallstreet!!!! Dalal Street wouldn't fit knowledgeable people like you.

Regards,

Vishal

one more thing.....your type of guys are just like CHATUR RAMLINGAN who do not have any practical knowledge. Each company coming with an IPO will have such forecastings to attract investors and your type of so called analyst blieve that.

Had earning profit been that easy that a ruppe 10 share would be worth 200 after 5 year, you should stop this analysis work and open a port...your clients have faith in you so they can put their money in....

Jaago Mohan Pyaare.........

SJ...you call yourself a analyst....I think first you need to learn reading.....read what I have written. I would really like to see the mango plant which becomes productive from very next year.....I written that it would be productive after a course of time.....but may be you were the guy who helped NASA developing the zero gravity BALL PEN........

I am still reading my post again to see if I written EPS of 1. May be NASA can help you to get a better specs.

You say that this peenpa is a tree now....agar bhari jawani main yes haal hai to budhape main kyaa hoga...after so many years of operations, it is still generating such big losses. Bhat can it do with additional 200 crores when even after using more than 1500 crores it is in loss.

oh and i forgot to say a mango seed becomes a plant and is then called a tree after some years.when it grows...........and a mango tree gives fruits every year....not after 10 years..............read between the lines and understand that pipavav has now become a tree after beeing a plant in 10 years...and it has started giving fruits....

Dear all Sane Minded Boarders...

Quote "Sane Boarders" bcoz there are some insane self proclaimed pseudo analysts on this blog who dont know A of analysis and F of financials.

As Ravi adviced i will not personally attack anyone who critizes me without facts.

But since these guys are raping the profession of hard working analysts like us by posting stupid self created formulas and predictions which no accounting methodology or valuation methodology uses; I thought it is my duty to save you from these "LUNATIC SELF PROCAIMED ANALYSTS" who are a disgrace to the whole analyst community.

First of all please note that these guys are claiming that after 10 years this company will generate EPS of 1.

That means there port will be shut down for next ten years and only start in 11th year to make profits and earn EPS of one.

That even after increase in operting margins that means more profitability for same amount of sales and lower interest cost and lower operating cost because of economies of scale Gujarat Pipavav will report losses. Wow what prediction....!!

And have you any guys seen a Mango tree in your backyard that gives fruits after 10 years. It gives fruits in my backyard and everyone's backyard every Summer. I mean if a Mango Tree existed that would have given fruits after 10 years NASA would have taken that mango tree to their Lab to analyse it in their extra terrestrial division coz that type of tree is not found on Planet Earth...Lol..!!

Now i have already posted my predictions day before yesterday.

Now check out ANGEL BROKING report on Gujarat Pipavav where they have given forward estimates for FY11 and FY12.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news_html_files/news_attachment/2010/Gujarat%20Pipava%20Port-IPO.pdf

They predict EXPECTED FY10 FY11 and FY12 as folllows which are more or less in line with my excel spreadsheet. They have added extra depriciation costs because of increse in plant assets due to CAPEX which i have not taken in operating expenses figure. Thoose revisions i have made in my analysis and will post corrected analysis:

FY10 FY11 FY12 (in crores)

Net Sales 264 360 447

Net profit -78 7.6 55

Ebidta Margin 31% 40% 45%

EPS Forward -1.8 0.2 1.3 that is double EPS every year because of low base of revenues.

They have also assumed the same CRISIL GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND MY REVENUES MATCH THEIR REVENUES.

So EPS in 2013 comes out to be 3.0 and for FY14 to 6.3.

Note: these are still conservative coz new revenue ares like land rentals, resumption of LPG Cargo and Coal cargo contracts for operational power units of Videcon torrent power have not been included.

So if EPS is doubling every year on conserbative estimates why will not they command 25-30 PE...? You can see examples in market of such companies i do not have to list that to you.

So by FY13 you can easily expect based on 2014 earnings a price ranging between Rs. 160-180 (6.3*25, 6.35*30).

IS'int this company a multibagger at Rs. 48...?

So people do not fall prey to these idiot self proclaimed pseudo Analysts coz...they are analyticaly illeterate....!!

Regards and Best of Luck ...!!

To sane boarders who do meaningful research or reading of research data before taking informed decisions..11

I agree with SJ for one point ....this stock will list poorly on initial day.....however for rest, I disagree.....when we talk about long term story in such things, I recall one story

A man plants a mango tree (cost Rs. 10). After 10 years (or may be 15) it will start giving fruits. It will produce approx 100 KG of Mangoes a year. So at current price this amounts to approx 5to10 thousand per year. So my valuation is @ PE of 20 after considering 50% expense is 50K to 100K. He comes with a IPO of 20% stake for Rs. 10 k to 20k..........

kaaaashhhhhhhhhhh maine wo ped lagaya hota :-)

enough fun...what I want to say is there is a big risk involved when you invest in something which will start yielding something fruitful after many years. there is no way this should ask for premium. I agree that 1 out of 10 such issues will be proved very good after 10 years. But the only problem is that we can not see future.

I think that a true retailer should not go for long term in companies not having proved track record. Still some one want to go long term in this stock, wait for next recession, at that time this stock will be available below 10.....

gppl
gmp.........6.....1600
in kota

BREAKING NEWS GUJARAT PIPAVAV PORT WILL LIST AT HUGE DISCOUNT.SAVE YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY.IF YOU APPLY IN THIS IPO,YOU WILL LOOSE ALL THE PROFIT GAINED FROM ENG INDIA,SKS MICRO,BAJAJ CORP.STAY AWAY.

@ jimmy anchor investors have a lock in period of 30 days. Anchor investors in this case are long only funds and mutual funds. Long only funds have a time horizon of 2-3 years minimum until and unless the company continues extremely bad performance or have corrupt mangement or their is kiquidity crisis as happened in 2008. Both is not the case with gujarat pipavav. Mutual funds do not churn their portfolio before 6 months to 1 year. Good mutual fund and long only funds do thourough anlalysis through team of research analysts and fund managers. They dont blindly put their money where they feel like because they have competition and their unit holdrrs will redeem their money if funds underperform and fund managers will be sacked. So if u have appprehensions that anchor investors will sell on or sfter t months of listing i can tell that is an unlikely scenario