Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL) IPO Message Board (Page 45)

Good analysis Setu saab !!!

@ MUKUL and other Boarders

Dear Boarders

Congrats to all who applied for this IPO

Many people asked me my advice today although I had posted a lot since earlier post

So I am again posting my analysis on Gujarat Pipavav that I had given to boarders earlier for people who have not read in a smaller simpler format.

See people here who say this is bad company are just highlighting only Profit Loss, Negative EPS etc...saying that this is loss making company and is bad to invest...They have not analysed the performance...completely.

I would like to highlight those points and here on

Gujarat Pipavav Past performance from Dec 05 to Dec 09 (Since they report financial year as Jan-Dec):------

1) Operating Revenues have increased from 67 crores to 219.3 crores from FY05-09....i.e. a CAGR of 38%.

So they are growing revenues and increasing capacity. As on FY09 Capacity Utilisation was 30% plus which will increase to 70-100% utilisation once capex is done and full capacity is build up by FY2010. In fact generally the established ports in India operate more than 100% capacity.

2)Total Operating Expenses have steadlily showing declining growth rates from 50% to 13% in FY09.

3)Earnings Before Interest Tax Depriciation and Amortisation has grown at a CAGR of 21% from FY05-09

4)Ebidta margins have increased from -11.7% in FY05-06 to 29.6%.

5)In fact the company has posted postive Eernings Before Interest and Tax EBIT in Quarter1 of FY10..!!

SO BOARDERS NOTICE THAT THEY ARE CONSTANTLY IMPRESSING WITH RESULTS..AND TURNING AROUND SINCE THE LAST FIVE YEARS RAPIDLY.

7) Now coming to Loan Outstanding and Interest Burden that some people are highlighting. Let me first explain you company's capex and funding

Total Capex 1964 crores

Sources of Funds:

Equity Already Bought In 491 crores
Sponsor Support 30 crores
IPO Proceeds (Not less than) 243 crores
Senior Debt 1200 crores

Now current debt is 1200 crores interest at 14% comes out to be approx (incuding finacial expenses) comes out to 172 crores for FY10.

Debt Equity Ratio 3.94 but after IPO proceeds are deucted till FY12 and Ebidta margin is projected to increase from FY10-FY14 as it has been increasing currently and will increase as i will show you in my projections, they will bring down Debt Equity ratio to 0.94 by FY12 from Current 3.94 starting from FY10 as they have also been directed in loan agreemnt with lenders.
Plz note the following aspects about future growth outlook before i give you actual figures:

(A) Revenue Projection: Gujarat Pipavav Shipyard derives it revenues from 4 segements.Their percentage contribution to total revenues as on Dec 2009 is as follows:

1)Container Cargo (62%)
2)Bulk Cargo (33%)
3)LPG Cargo* (0%)
4)Ultratech Jetty* (1.6%)
5)Land Related (3.5%)

1)As per CRISIL report Cantainer Cargo volume in Gujarat and Mumbai based ports will grow at CAGR of 27% from FY10-FY14 period.

2)Bulk Cargo as per CRISIL will grow at CAGR of 15%

3)LPG Cargo had no revenues from FY07-FY10 as their were some implemention faults and roadblocks and has started being operational from Dec 2009. This used to contribute 30 crore revnue previously and will cross that mark by FY13.LPG cargo revenues will start coming in Q2 FY10 with company giving services to Aegis Gas.

Also the pipavav region is set to see power capacity additions and hence requirement to import coal and hence Pipavav's Coal Cargo volumes will rise phenomenally from FY12..by clients like Videocon, Visa Power, Torrent Power.

However i have taken just conservative estimates of LPG cargo revenues till FY14. After customer additions are bound to happen this will increase.

4)Ultratech jetty has given stable revenues and keep on growing.

5) Land related revenues will increase as pipavav has tremenuos land assets around port which they can rent out to other companies for cargo handling by making small operational capex and getting huge revenues...

(B)Opearting Expenses Projection:

Gujarat pipav operates at just 30% capacity..coz total capex to finish port development is going on.

Because of this they have to pay penalty of 148 crores which are part of operating expenses....till now. But going forward as their volumes are increasing currently at 50% operating capacity and 90-100% by FY14 after total capex starts giving fruits...in the form of fully opeartional port capacities...this 148 crores will keep going down ultimatelt to 0 by fy12 significantly reducing opearting expenses.
I had mentioned in a previous post that since I had estimated Depriciation less and had not accounted for increase in depreciation from new plant assets due to further CAPEX..
So here is my final revised estimates EPS and PRICE TARGET:
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 (figures in Rs. Crores)
Operating Revenues: 290, 370, 447, 560, 690
EBIDTA (Earnings Before Interest Depriciation and Tax :
144, 200, 227 300, 400
EBIT 94, 135, 157, 185, 300
PAT: - -65, 7, 57, 125 , 270
Debt Equity: 2.5, 1.75, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3
Forward EPS: 0.64, 1.36, 3.0 6.43

Since market discounts one year forward earnings my revised price targets:
2010 Rs. 58
2011 Rs. 65
2012 Rs. 89
2013 Rs. 192

Regards

Setu

Disclosure: Me and My clients have added 20% allocation to this stock in their portfolio

Retail 9.05 overall
considering the low subscription from employee quota and some price bids rejection

around 235 shares can be expected in 1 lac application

Current GMP
share 9-9.5 Rs
application 2100 Rs

Enjoy the benefits

Pl. leave this GPPL IPO. This matter is closed .We may now moveon to the next IPO. Ali Bhoy and other knowlegeable boarders , pl. throw some light on fothcoming issues.

thankyou setuji, ravi banglore for supplying and sharing information with all members. You guys help people without any selfish motives. I am regularly follwing advice of ravi, setu and sreedhar. Setu is a new member but create a place in the heart of many person with his honest views. Today i also remember your example of mango tree. That example encourages me a lot to apply in this ipo. Ravi also posted information on time.Please mention my name also as a friend in your future post.

what is the latest status of subscription in retail

where di u got the sub info . break info not there in NSE.

however overall subs is 19.77 times

Rectification: offer price for retail investor should be Rs 45 or Rs 46.

Oversubscribed 5.66 times in retail so there is less chance of getting IPO to the person who has bid smaller number of lots.It is expected to be offered at Rs.43 to retail investors and at Rs. 48 to others.Listing is expected in the range of Rs. 58-63. It may touch Rs. 75 on the first day trading.
Happy money building...cheers!!!!

AS PER BOLO TARARA, CALCULATION ,FULL APPLICATION WILL GET ............180..SHARES ONLY, IN RETAIL CATEGORY

ha ha someone posted nice BOLO TARA RA RA THEME SONG...LOL

BALANCE SHEET SAMJHDI NAA FUTURE GROWTH SAMAJDHI"

" SKS SAMJHDI NA PIPAVAV SAMJHDI"

" DONO BLOG MEIN INVESTOR KI MAA BEHEN KAR DI"

BOLO TARA RA RA RA RA RA RA...

"BINA FACTS KE KUCH BHI LIKHDI"

BOLO TA RA RA RA RA RA RA ..

" KHALI PROFIT LOSS FIGURE COPY PASTE KARDI"

BOLO TA RA RA RA RAAAAAA......HAIIIIII...

HAO RABBA HAOOO RABBBA HAO ...RABBA HAOO RABBA HAO RABBA HAO RABBA...

TO 631. Rishi Ahmedabad,

THANKS RISHI, YOU ARE IN MY FAVOUR. ILOVEYOU A LOT!!!

what is the latest status of subscription in retail

ADITYA JI I RESPECT U TOO U R ALSO RESPECTABLE MEI 2003 SE AAJ TAK SABHI IPO MEI INVEST KAR CHUKA HOO MEINE MARUTI TCS BIOCON PETRONET LNG PTC ONGC NTPC SE LEKAR AAJ GUJRAAT PIPAVAV TAK EK EK IPO MEI INVEST KIYA HAI AAJ PATA NAHI KYO BOLO TARA RA RA JI GPPL PAR NEGATIVE HAI YEH 20RS PREMIUM PAR LIST HO KAR SUSTAIN HONA CHAHIYE . AAJ TARA RA RA JI GALAT HAI

@ naveen mittal

Koi bewakuf bhi tumko yeh bata dega.....

Lagta hai you are also his victim....

GOD SAVE YOU

May you get well soon with his advice

PLZ CHANGE UR NAME I WILL IDENTIFY U FROM UR RESPECTUL MESSAGES FOR ALL

GJRAT PIPAVAV WILL BE LIST ROUGHLY NEAR 35

Well I think Chittorgarh should not allow anonymous postings anymore. Only members with proper ids on chittorgarh should be allowd to post messages and that to on their own names. Please look into the matter Chittorgarh.com administrators as this thing is destroying the value that this blog is creating, at the same time I also request people to keep limited their talks to IPO's only, please dont try to get unnecessary fame as this is not the right place to seek for fame.

Kindest Regards,
Rishi Jain
MBA 2nd year student

626 sj is not me...fake

I will post at night....about my views now...

Congrats to all who applied ....for long term..

Regards Setu

I RESPECT U TARA RA RA